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Trainer profile

Dan Horsford

112 runners in the lifetime window · 25 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
14–112
Wins / Runs
12.5%
Strike rate
n=112
45 (40%)
Placed
1.04
Fair A/E
n=112 · 0.88 incl. margin
−18.89
£1 level stake
n=112 at SP · −16.9%
£147k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
15.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04).

Deterministic profile computed from 112 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.7% (n=35, Fair A/E 0.59). The yard also reads well in Class 5 (16.3%, n=43). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 6.7% over 30 runners, 5.8pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.7%−6.8
n=35 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −17.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.3%−6.2
n=16 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
11.1%−1.4
n=9 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−12.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+37.5
n=4 · A/E 4.60 · £1 +16.00
When favourite
30.8%
n=13 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −0.89
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
17.6%+5.1
n=17 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −6.09
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−12.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 6.7% vs 12.5% · n=30
On Standard (AW) going 7.3% vs 12.5% · n=41
In Class 5 16.3% vs 12.5% · n=43
With a new jockey booking 10% vs 12.5% · n=70
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 70 9 12.9% −16.39
Hurdle 29 4 13.8% −2.50
NH Flat 11 1 9.1% +2.00
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 41 3 7.3% −20.80
Good 25 2 8% −13.00
Good to Soft 24 5 20.8% +13.00
Soft 13 2 15.4% −6.09
Good to Firm 6 1 16.7% −2.00
Heavy 2 1 50% +11.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 13 1 7.7% −10.80
Wolverhampton (AW) 10 1 10% −4.00
Lingfield (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Southwell (AW) 7 1 14.3% +5.00
Newbury 6 1 16.7% −2.50
Ffos Las 6 3 50% +17.50
Chepstow 5 0 0% −5.00
York 4 1 25% +0.00
Goodwood 3 1 33.3% +1.00
Chester 3 1 33.3% −1.09
Wetherby 3 0 0% −3.00
Windsor 3 0 0% −3.00
Worcester 3 0 0% −3.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Bath 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 45 5 11.1% −24.59
Class 5 43 7 16.3% +12.20
Class 6 20 2 10% −2.50
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 17 4 23.5% 0.86 −4.89
2nd–3rd fav 27 5 18.5% 1.12 −2.00
4th–6th fav 38 4 10.5% 1.21 +5.00
7th+ in betting 30 1 3.3% 1.00 −17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Kiniro (GB)from Harry Charlton 10 1 4 3 Nov 26
Nivelle's Magic (GB)from Simon Earle 10 2 6 23 Jan 26
Miss Lady Grace (IRE)from Alice Haynes 9 3 4 7 Nov 26
Robber's Bridge (IRE)from Simon Earle 8 2 5 10 Nov 26
Crazy Plan (GB) 8 0 2 6 Oct 26
Cruden (GB)from James Ewart 6 1 4 11 Jul 26
Eddie My Eagle (IRE) 6 2 4 25 Mar 26
Golden Dove (GB)from Simon Earle 6 0 2 29 Oct 25
Grey Soul (IRE)from Roger Varian 5 2 2 10 Oct 26
Stormy Lady (GB)from Alan King 5 0 1 4 Dec 25
Thatsnotmyname (GB) 4 0 0 26 Oct 26
Sigliosa (GB)from John Joseph Murphy 4 0 2 22 Oct 26
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Simon Earle (7) and J S Bolger (2); 9 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
50250150393300800
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Brendan Powell 17 1 5.9% −6.00
Jason Watson 16 1 6.3% −11.00
Rob Hornby 9 2 22.2% +8.50
Philip Armson 7 2 28.6% +1.50
Alexandra Egan 5 2 40% +0.91
Jack Mitchell 5 0 0% −5.00
Harry Cobden 4 0 0% −4.00
Kieran Shoemark 4 1 25% +9.00
Oisin Murphy 4 1 25% −1.80
Hollie Doyle 4 1 25% +2.00
Paul O'Brien 3 0 0% −3.00
Charlie Deutsch 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
14
Archived wins
£147k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 11 wins
Cruden (GB) — John Smith's Stayers' Handicap (GBBPlus Race) York · Jul 2026 · Class 4
£12,885
Eddie My Eagle (IRE) — Simple Boost Tokens Now At BetVictor Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Newbury · Feb 2026 · Class 4
£8,714
Miss Lady Grace (IRE) — Allington Hughes Law Handicap (Div 2) Chester · Jun 2026 · Class 4
£7,731
Notable horses
Miss Lady Grace (IRE) Nivelle's Magic (GB) Robber's Bridge (IRE) Eddie My Eagle (IRE) Grey Soul (IRE) Kiniro (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Planteur (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,538 runs since 2017 (165 horses).
Havana Gold (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,064 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Hellvelyn (GB) 20% · 2–10
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,952 runs since 2014 (162 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.7% from 256.
Space Blues (IRE) 33.3% · 3–9
Progeny have won 12.6% of 756 runs since 2025 (132 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16% from 169.
Frammassone (IRE) 25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 11.4% of 458 runs since 2017 (35 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.8% from 117.
Wings Of Eagles (FR) 25% · 2–8
Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,041 runs since 2021 (159 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.6% from 301. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 134.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 112 · newest first

The latest 50 of 112 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 April 2025 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Nov 26 Lingfield Robber's Bridge (IRE)J: Mr Sam Burton Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 13/2
07 Nov 26 Doncaster Miss Lady Grace (IRE)J: Conor Whiteley Virgin Bet Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series) (Div I)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 11/2
05 Nov 26 Newbury Hector Le Prince (FR)J: Jack Tudor BetVictor Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 12/1
04 Nov 26 Chepstow Bears Socks (IRE)J: Philip Armson Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 4th 28/1
04 Nov 26 Chepstow The Lightmaker (IRE)J: Paul O'Brien LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 9/2
03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Jason Watson Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 5/1
30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Crimson Ocean (GB)J: Brendan Powell Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 5th 25/1
26 Oct 26 Hereford Thatsnotmyname (GB)J: Brendan Powell tigerbet.co.uk Download Our App Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (herring Queen Mares' Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 12 ran F 100/1
22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Jason Watson Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 5/1J
22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sigliosa (GB)J: Jason Watson Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 5/1
22 Oct 26 Ffos Las Trojan Tale (IRE)J: Harry Cobden bettingsites.co.uk Instant Withdrawal Novices' Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran PU 4/1
10 Oct 26 York Grey Soul (IRE)J: Jason Watson Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 20th 50/1
10 Oct 26 York Miss Lady Grace (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Sky Bet Peter Nolan Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Soft · 20 ran 7th 10/1
07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Kiniro (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 1st 6/5F
07 Oct 26 Nottingham Sigliosa (GB)J: Jason Watson Watch Racing Tv Now Handicap Stakes (Div II) (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 14/1
06 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Crazy Plan (GB)J: Mr Sam Burton bettingsites.co.uk Price Boosts Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 9/1
22 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Miss Lady Grace (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 18/1
19 Sep 26 Newmarket Kiniro (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Turners Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 9th 18/1
14 Sep 26 Windsor Crazy Plan (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Nsi Fire & Security Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 3/1C
12 Sep 26 Chester Sigliosa (GB)J: Brendan Powell John Smith's Jump Jockeys Challenge Handicap Stakes (To Be Ridden By Professional Jump Jockeys) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12.5f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 10 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Dan Horsford's strike rate?
Dan Horsford has won 14 of 112 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.5% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Dan Horsford in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Dan Horsford's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 112 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).