What is John Joseph Murphy's strike rate?

John Joseph Murphy has won 200 of 3,693 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Joseph Murphy do best at?

Killarney by strike rate: 47 wins from 397 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Joseph Murphy?

Shane Foley, with 281 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 28 (10%).

Is John Joseph Murphy in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is John Joseph Murphy's Fair A/E?

0.92, from 3,688 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Joseph Murphy

3,693 runners in the lifetime window · 535 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

200–3,693

Wins / Runs

5.4%

Strike rate

n=3,693

679 (18%)

Placed

0.92

Fair A/E

n=3,688 · 0.73 incl. margin

−1,595.63

£1 level stake

n=3,693 at SP · −43.2%

£3.82m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 10% (87 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,693 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 22.1% when favourite Shane Foley: 10% from 281 Headgear returns: 10.3% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Killarney (11.8%, n=397) and Sligo (14.5%, n=55) — all clear of the yard's 5.4% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 10.3% (n=87, Fair A/E 1.62), but debutants struggle at 2.2% (n=457, Fair A/E 0.65). The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 3.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.57 and −122.92 to a £1 stake over 185 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Shane Foley rides 8% of the entries and edges the yard's average (10% vs 5.4%, A/E 1.35) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (11.1%, n=279). 15 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh (May 2024, £295,000). The stable star of the record: Convincing (GB) — 6 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.3%−1.1

n=763 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −331.47

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−5.4

n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00

Debutants · first career start

2.2%−3.2

n=457 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −271.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.2%−2.2

n=185 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −122.92

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.3%+4.9

n=87 · A/E 1.62 · £1 +55.25

When favourite

22.1%

n=131 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −26.61

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.6%−0.8

n=1,507 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −712.11

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.2%−1.2

n=190 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −106.79

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 13.7% vs 5.4% · n=124

At Killarney 11.8% vs 5.4% · n=397

At Sligo 14.5% vs 5.4% · n=55

On last-time-out winners 12.3% vs 5.4% · n=163

With Colin Keane 11.6% vs 5.4% · n=233

Off a 0-7-day break 11.1% vs 5.4% · n=279

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,934 171 5.8% −1,130.63

Hurdle 547 23 4.2% −310.50

Chase 159 5 3.1% −106.00

NH Flat 53 1 1.9% −48.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 1,145 66 5.8% −379.95

Good 900 55 6.1% −397.16

Heavy 528 20 3.8% −376.51

Standard (AW) 471 32 6.8% −95.89

Good to Firm 335 13 3.9% −162.00

Good to Soft 271 14 5.2% −141.12

Firm 43 0 0% −43.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 433 30 6.9% −68.22

Killarney 397 47 11.8% +47.16

Cork 368 11 3% −269.51

Gowran Park 289 15 5.2% −98.62

Curragh 265 7 2.6% −227.06

Tipperary 209 4 1.9% −140.00

Limerick 204 12 5.9% −49.75

Leopardstown 175 5 2.9% −67.00

Naas 152 4 2.6% −63.50

Galway 150 7 4.7% −80.50

Listowel 129 3 2.3% −81.50

Navan 115 5 4.3% −71.17

Tramore 96 8 8.3% −19.27

Clonmel 76 7 9.2% −28.10

Wexford 74 4 5.4% −32.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 202 8 4% −118.79

Class 5 25 1 4% −18.00

Class 6 22 2 9.1% −11.67

Class 4 15 0 0% −15.00

Class 3 10 0 0% −10.00

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 159 35 22% 0.97 −28.11

2nd–3rd fav 420 64 15.2% 1.11 −60.02

4th–6th fav 926 56 6% 0.90 −264.50

7th+ in betting 2,188 45 2.1% 0.73 −1,243.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m – 1m1f 983 62 6.3% −299.11

6f – 7f 868 42 4.8% −424.61

1m2f – 1m4f 735 44 6% −275.29

1m5f – 2m 495 20 4% −289.64

2m1f – 2m4f 307 20 6.5% −117.23

2m5f – 3m 148 7 4.7% −53.50

Under 6f 134 5 3.7% −113.25

Over 3m 23 0 0% −23.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 387 7 1.8% −321.77

2009 313 2 0.6% −290.00

2010 263 22 8.4% −35.58

2011 277 15 5.4% −101.67

2012 176 9 5.1% −72.00

2013 244 17 7% −82.00

2014 175 7 4% −64.00

2015 265 12 4.5% −87.75

2016 254 16 6.3% −1.50

2017 230 7 3% −162.50

2018 148 13 8.8% +7.50

2019 145 14 9.7% −40.60

2020 191 12 6.3% −61.77

2021 177 13 7.3% −63.34

2022 135 7 5.2% −99.80

2023 101 13 12.9% −0.90

2024 62 4 6.5% −47.46

2025 91 8 8.8% −37.24

2026 59 2 3.4% −33.25

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,779 121 6.8% −490.60

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 1,220 64 5.2% −471.39

11-13 runners 829 48 5.8% −420.01

17+ runners 692 21 3% −405.89

8-10 runners 623 40 6.4% −252.25

5-7 runners 301 23 7.6% −45.92

2-4 runners 28 4 14.3% −0.17

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

High Altitude (IRE) 56 5 12 31 Oct 22

Matchbook (IRE) 40 1 11 3 Nov 11

Cul A Dun (IRE) 34 3 5 4 Sep 12

The Buck (IRE)from Michael Quinlan 31 3 5 31 Oct 11

Convincing (GB) 30 0 4 3 Aug 13

Walter De La Mare (IRE)then Anabel K Murphy 30 2 7 15 Sep 12

Brazos (USA)then Alexandra Dunn 29 5 9 26 Jan 23

King's Road (GB)then Anabel K Murphy 28 2 5 18 Jul 11

Barometer (IRE) 27 1 11 26 Dec 23

Carraigin Aonair (IRE)then Olly Murphy 27 2 5 2 Sep 17

Destined For Fame (IRE)then Ivor Kingston 27 0 3 26 Aug 11

Vintage Gold (IRE) 26 1 5 17 Jul 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 535 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 57 had their first archived run for this yard.

32 have since run for another yard, most often for Tristan Davidson (5) and Anabel K Murphy (4); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

634444794673

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderShane Foley

8% of all rides
10% SR · A/E 1.35

RiderRWSR£1

Shane Foley 281 28 10% −9.25

Robbie Colgan 254 12 4.7% −136.87

Colin Keane 233 27 11.6% −37.92

David Splaine 199 9 4.5% −83.00

Danny Grant 188 3 1.6% −161.25

Seamie Heffernan 182 11 6% +26.50

Eddie Power 168 7 4.2% −111.77

N G McCullagh 155 7 4.5% −45.00

Connor King 130 8 6.2% −54.25

Ben Curtis 123 6 4.9% −48.33

Killian Leonard 57 3 5.3% −36.00

Jason Conneely 53 1 1.9% −41.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

246

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.04m

Prize money

2010

Best season · 22 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

White Birch (GB) — Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) Curragh · May 2024 · Group 1

£295,000

Newmill (IRE) — Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2006 · Class 1

£165,358

Newmill (IRE) — Kerrygold Champion Chase (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2006 · Grade 1

£124,660

Notable horses

Convincing (GB) High Altitude (IRE) Brazos (USA) Newmill (IRE) Goldplated (IRE) White Birch (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Papal Bull (GB) 6.2% · 17–273

Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,584 runs since 2012 (131 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.5% from 172. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.

Acclamation (GB) 4.3% · 4–92

Progeny have won 10% of 19,707 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Selkirk (USA) 8.2% · 7–85

Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,371 runs since 2008 (333 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 228. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.7% from 143.

King's Best (USA) 3.7% · 3–82

Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.

Dubai Destination (USA) 0% · 0–66

Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.

Footstepsinthesand (GB) 10.6% · 7–66

Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,804 runs since 2009 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,664 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,664 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Black Bamboo (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Paddy Power 'I Still Call It Twitter' Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 2nd 22/1

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Testaverde (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Des Byrne Memorial Maiden10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 100/1

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Sunburn (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Gowran Park Racing Club Fillies Maiden9.5f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 125/1

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Emberelle (IRE)J: Shane Foley Gowran Park Racing Club Fillies Maiden9.5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Papanell (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Irish Wire Products (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 8th 80/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Cool Steel (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 9th 100/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Vico Road (IRE)J: Shane Foley Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 1st 22/1

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Cosmonaut (GB)J: Robbie Colgan Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden7f · Good · 12 ran 9th 250/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Ballindenisk (IRE)J: Eoin Walsh Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div I)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 9th 13/2

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Acquilyx (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Irish Stallion Farms EBF Laidlaw Cup Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 13 ran 11th 250/1

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Special Reserve (GB)J: Shane Foley Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden (Smullen Series)8.5f · Good · 15 ran 13th 100/1

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Bridal Queen (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (Smullen Series)8.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 125/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Boy Racer (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor DNG People & Property Maiden12f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 10th 200/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Bunglasha Boy (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan DNG People & Property Maiden12f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 8th 200/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Rare Blend (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 15 ran 5th 11/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Aztec Chief (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden6f · Soft · 12 ran 6th 20/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Queen Of The Bogs (IRE)J: Shane Foley SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Fillies Handicap10.5f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 33/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Sing Hallelujah (IRE)J: Shane Foley WTW Willis Fillies Maiden7f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 9/2

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Red Dahlia (IRE)J: J M Sheridan WTW Willis Fillies Maiden7f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 12/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Sunburn (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden11f · Soft · 7 ran 6th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · to 17 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Joseph Murphy's strike rate?: John Joseph Murphy has won 200 of 3,693 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Joseph Murphy do best at?: Killarney by strike rate: 47 wins from 397 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Joseph Murphy?: Shane Foley, with 281 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 28 (10%).
Is John Joseph Murphy in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Joseph Murphy's Fair A/E?: 0.92, from 3,688 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.