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Trainer profile

Miss Natalia Lupini

848 runners in the lifetime window · 139 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
86–848
Wins / Runs
10.1%
Strike rate
n=848
249 (29%)
Placed
1.12
Fair A/E
n=847 · 0.90 incl. margin
−206.25
£1 level stake
n=848 at SP · −24.3%
£1.72m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12). New recruits from other yards win at 14% first time out (43 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 848 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 36.7% when favourite W. M. Lordan: 12.5% from 208 New recruits: 14% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Fairyhouse (22%, n=41) and Gowran Park (20%, n=30) — all clear of the yard's 10.1% baseline. It is weakest at Navan (0% over 45 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 14% (n=43, Fair A/E 1.78), but debutants struggle at 4% (n=100, Fair A/E 0.76). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −83.25 to a £1 stake over 152 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. W. M. Lordan rides 25% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.5% vs 10.1%, A/E 1.32) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap at Galway (Jul 2025, £70,800). The stable star of the record: Blairmayne (IRE) — 8 wins from 63 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.8%−1.3
n=160 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −74.29
New recruits · first run for the yard
14%+3.9
n=43 · A/E 1.78 · £1 −0.50
Debutants · first career start
4%−6.1
n=100 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −21.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.1
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%−1.0
n=11 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
36.7%
n=90 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +31.92
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%−4.8
n=152 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −83.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
6.9%−3.2
n=29 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Fairyhouse 22% vs 10.1% · n=41
At Navan 0% vs 10.1% · n=45
On last-time-out winners 18.7% vs 10.1% · n=75
With C&D winners 17.8% vs 10.1% · n=107
At Gowran Park 20% vs 10.1% · n=30
With W J Lee 17.7% vs 10.1% · n=79
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 845 86 10.2% −203.25
Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 291 25 8.6% −97.91
Standard (AW) 254 31 12.2% −28.80
Soft 151 14 9.3% −51.67
Good to Soft 57 6 10.5% −26.67
Good to Firm 55 6 10.9% −8.70
Heavy 40 4 10% +7.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 247 30 12.1% −30.80
Curragh 145 7 4.8% −97.75
Naas 83 11 13.3% +30.75
Leopardstown 61 2 3.3% −53.25
Down Royal 58 7 12.1% −11.29
Navan 45 0 0% −45.00
Fairyhouse 41 9 22% +22.91
Cork 37 6 16.2% −8.15
Gowran Park 30 6 20% +22.00
Galway 22 5 22.7% +21.33
Bellewstown 18 0 0% −18.00
Roscommon 10 0 0% −10.00
Tipperary 10 0 0% −10.00
Limerick 10 2 20% +3.00
Sligo 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 29 2 6.9% −20.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 5 1 1 100% +8.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 107 36 33.6% 1.43 +27.17
2nd–3rd fav 171 25 14.6% 1.05 −28.42
4th–6th fav 220 11 5% 0.66 −110.00
7th+ in betting 350 14 4% 1.27 −95.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Blairmayne (IRE) 63 8 25 11 May 24
Alnahar (IRE)from R K Watson · then Neil McKnight 27 2 8 27 Oct 17
Abstraction (IRE)from R K Watson 25 2 7 27 Sep 19
Dunum (IRE)from Patrick Eugene Turley 23 8 14 2 Aug 26
Dontspoilasale (IRE)then Adrian McGuinness 21 1 7 15 Aug 24
Dandyville (IRE)then M G Quinn 21 7 14 29 Nov 23
Bishopton (IRE)from Olly Murphy 20 3 7 30 Oct 26
Alma Libre (FR)then A Oliver 20 1 6 19 Jul 24
Ohmali (IRE) 19 1 4 30 Sep 26
Magic Charm (IRE)then Martin Hassett 18 1 3 24 Sep 22
Arnhem (IRE)then Jack W Davison 16 1 10 26 Sep 21
In Our Blood (IRE)from Sarah Dawson · then Neil McKnight 15 0 3 2 Sep 17
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 139 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John C McConnell (3) and Adrian McGuinness (2); 42 had their first archived run for this yard.

28 have since run for another yard, most often for Adrian McGuinness (5) and Neil McKnight (2); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 8
Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
32116177104101110176
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderW. M. Lordan
25% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 1.32
RiderRWSR£1
W. M. Lordan 208 26 12.5% +27.30
Seamie Heffernan 91 5 5.5% −41.37
W J Lee 79 14 17.7% −11.62
Gavin Ryan 50 2 4% −40.00
Shane Foley 47 6 12.8% +3.33
Killian Leonard 43 3 7% −18.50
Leigh Roche 32 3 9.4% −19.15
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→
86
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£1.72m
Prize money
2023
Best season · 16 wins
Dunum (IRE) — COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Jul 2025
£70,800
Dunum (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap Galway (IRE) · Aug 2026
£65,999
Dunum (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Ahonoora' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Aug 2023
£64,900
Notable horses
Blairmayne (IRE) Dunum (IRE) Dandyville (IRE) Bishopton (IRE) Summer Island (USA) Cousin Shay (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Zebedee (GB) 10.3% · 8–78
Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2014 (435 horses).
Dandy Man (IRE) 12.5% · 9–72
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,980 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Kodiac (GB) 3.6% · 1–28
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,598 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Bahri (USA) 7.4% · 2–27
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,889 runs since 2008 (148 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.5% · 3–26
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Majestic Missile (IRE) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,897 runs since 2010 (110 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 848 · newest first

The latest 50 of 848 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 June 2015 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Whistling Jamesie (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 8/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Hellorhighwater (GB)J: Ben Coen Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 19th 9/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Adversity (GB)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 5th 13/2
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Flame Of Forest (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 14/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Bishopton (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 33/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Positive Thinking (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 50/1
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Scolyer (USA)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 33/1
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Whistling Jamesie (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 12/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Akashaa (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Braham Electrical Handicap6f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 16/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Perfect Base (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Braham Electrical Handicap6f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 28/1
17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Oath Of Honor (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish Stallion Farms EBF Laidlaw Cup Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 13 ran 12th 66/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Flame Of Forest (IRE)J: W. M. Lordan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Book Now Handicap10.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 25/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Celestial Order (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 28/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Scolyer (USA)J: Ben Coen Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 6th 9/1
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Adversity (GB)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 18 ran 3rd 25/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Bishopton (IRE)J: Kian McNally BAR 1 Betting 'First For Football' Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 5/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hellorhighwater (GB)J: Ben Coen BAR 1 Betting 'First For Football' Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 100/30
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Thaloria (GB)J: Kian McNally Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 33/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Pauseathought (GB)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 28/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) The Pipeman (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 1) · to 10 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Miss Natalia Lupini's strike rate?
Miss Natalia Lupini has won 86 of 848 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Miss Natalia Lupini do best at?
Fairyhouse by strike rate: 9 wins from 41 runners (22%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Miss Natalia Lupini?
W. M. Lordan, with 208 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (12.5%).
Is Miss Natalia Lupini in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Miss Natalia Lupini's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 847 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).