What is Noel Meade's strike rate?

Noel Meade has won 1,047 of 8,590 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Noel Meade do best at?

Downpatrick by strike rate: 53 wins from 216 runners (24.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Noel Meade?

Paul Carberry, with 1,333 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 193 (14.5%).

Is Noel Meade in form?

In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 5.9%. That is below the baseline of 12.2% since 2008.

What is Noel Meade's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 8,589 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Noel Meade

8,590 runners in the lifetime window · 853 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 11.3% of 478 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 5 Nov 2026.

Runners today

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,047–8,590

Wins / Runs

12.2%

Strike rate

n=8,590

2,857 (33%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=8,589 · 0.82 incl. margin

−2,472.56

£1 level stake

n=8,590 at SP · −28.8%

£22.1m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 450 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 8,590 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Fresh horses: 13.2% 34.3% when favourite Paul Carberry: 14.5% from 1,333 Sends off the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Downpatrick (24.5%, n=216) and Wexford (28.8%, n=52) — all clear of the yard's 12.2% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run are the standout value angle: 12% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.35 and +35.50 to a £1 stake over 334 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 17 runners in the last 14 days (5.9%, 6.3pts below the 12.2% baseline). Paul Carberry rides 16% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14.5% vs 12.2%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in NH Flat races (21.1%, n=560). 195 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh (May 2021, £177,000). The stable star of the record: Snow Falcon (IRE) — 12 wins from 57 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

13.2%+1.0

n=1,916 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −487.39

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.2%+0.0

n=115 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −28.14

Debutants · first career start

11.7%−0.5

n=631 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −124.89

First-time headgear · true-first definition

12.4%+0.2

n=410 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −100.88

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12%−0.2

n=334 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +35.50

When favourite

34.3%

n=1,060 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −170.87

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.5%−2.7

n=1,695 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −564.30

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10%−2.2

n=1,427 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −331.61

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Downpatrick 24.5% vs 12.2% · n=216

At Wexford 28.8% vs 12.2% · n=52

In NH Flat races 21.1% vs 12.2% · n=560

With Ms N Carberry 20.6% vs 12.2% · n=432

With Davy Russell 23.2% vs 12.2% · n=82

With B J Cooper 20% vs 12.2% · n=170

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 3,310 445 13.4% −969.67

Flat 2,780 264 9.5% −872.24

Chase 1,940 220 11.3% −586.67

NH Flat 560 118 21.1% −43.98

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 3,068 362 11.8% −1,036.22

Good 2,049 258 12.6% −534.30

Heavy 1,710 228 13.3% −517.41

Good to Soft 916 99 10.8% −218.93

Standard (AW) 482 43 8.9% −138.39

Good to Firm 342 56 16.4% −11.81

Firm 23 1 4.3% −15.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fairyhouse 867 95 11% −297.88

Punchestown 833 96 11.5% −337.05

Navan 776 83 10.7% −360.72

Leopardstown 725 65 9% −183.01

Naas 531 76 14.3% −70.23

Dundalk (AW) 478 43 9% −134.39

Down Royal 448 67 15% −118.12

Galway 418 58 13.9% −125.74

Gowran Park 381 32 8.4% −165.89

Curragh 343 27 7.9% −115.00

Cork 317 43 13.6% −115.80

Kilbeggan 290 46 15.9% +34.17

Roscommon 252 41 16.3% −25.34

Limerick 226 37 16.4% −52.30

Downpatrick 216 53 24.5% +25.31

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 1,487 148 10% −298.61

Class 2 15 0 0% −15.00

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,242 416 33.5% 1.12 −145.41

2nd–3rd fav 2,374 386 16.3% 1.03 −443.98

4th–6th fav 2,497 175 7% 0.94 −755.67

7th+ in betting 2,477 70 2.8% 0.83 −1,127.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 2,473 346 14% −671.55

2m1f – 2m4f 2,116 311 14.7% −548.43

2m5f – 3m 1,445 171 11.8% −424.31

1m2f – 1m4f 829 99 11.9% −121.64

6f – 7f 703 51 7.3% −256.53

1m – 1m1f 602 39 6.5% −268.59

Over 3m 322 24 7.5% −120.17

Under 6f 100 6 6% −61.34

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 594 81 13.6% −155.25

2009 571 76 13.3% −109.70

2010 443 59 13.3% −135.96

2011 365 69 18.9% −8.18

2012 406 61 15% −127.19

2013 407 43 10.6% −174.58

2014 372 48 12.9% −98.33

2015 287 35 12.2% −136.74

2016 329 52 15.8% −115.46

2017 537 69 12.8% −202.28

2018 511 62 12.1% −149.44

2019 581 81 13.9% −87.70

2020 530 58 10.9% −198.52

2021 538 52 9.7% −119.11

2022 484 45 9.3% −250.51

2023 487 51 10.5% −31.97

2024 370 34 9.2% −92.38

2025 397 43 10.8% −163.84

2026 381 28 7.3% −115.42

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,250 238 7.3% −1,082.09

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 2,158 236 10.9% −572.01

17+ runners 2,004 168 8.4% −768.05

11-13 runners 1,784 217 12.2% −485.54

8-10 runners 1,563 232 14.8% −310.83

5-7 runners 955 167 17.5% −279.46

2-4 runners 126 27 21.4% −56.67

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Snow Falcon (IRE) 57 12 25 26 Dec 22

Helvic Dream (IRE) 51 7 19 11 Oct 26

Jesse Evans (IRE) 51 11 28 23 Sep 26

Layfayette (IRE) 51 11 22 22 Aug 26

Tulsa Jack (IRE)then Alexandra Dunn 48 5 17 8 Jul 18

Charlie Luciano (IRE) 46 6 16 31 Oct 26

Zoffman (IRE) 45 3 19 5 Nov 26

Fisher Bridge (IRE)from Walter Swinburn 44 9 16 29 Jul 14

De Name Escapes Me (IRE)from Miss Elizabeth Anne Lalor 43 6 18 18 Apr 22

Golden Temple (IRE) 42 4 9 13 Oct 26

Sheisdiesel (GB) 40 6 17 28 Jun 20

Texas Jack (IRE) 39 7 12 27 Dec 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 853 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 24 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 50 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard, most often for Donald McCain (2) and Gordon Elliott (2); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 17 5.9% · −6.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days5.9%

Lifetime base12.2%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

10101191311121212171512

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaul Carberry

16% of all rides
14.5% SR · A/E 1.05

RiderRWSR£1

Paul Carberry 1,333 193 14.5% −323.15

Sean Flanagan 1,238 163 13.2% −270.01

Colin Keane 767 99 12.9% −106.47

Ms N Carberry 432 89 20.6% −110.17

Davy Condon 352 55 15.6% −20.61

Chris Hayes 266 17 6.4% −147.67

Jonathan Moore 248 21 8.5% −137.64

E Walsh 188 22 11.7% −65.55

Donagh Meyler 187 18 9.6% −99.49

B J Cooper 170 34 20% −8.47

Niall P Madden 167 13 7.8% −85.13

Ger Fox 155 11 7.1% −105.77

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,372

Archived wins

195

Pattern / graded wins

£29.2m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 129 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Helvic Dream (IRE) — Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) Curragh · May 2021 · Group 1

£177,000

Pinkerton (IRE) — Tote Galway Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Galway · Jul 2024 · Grade 3

£159,300

Road To Riches (IRE) — thetote.com Galway Plate (Grade A Handicap Chase) Galway · Jul 2014 · Grade A

£120,375

Notable horses

Snow Falcon (IRE) Layfayette (IRE) Jesse Evans (IRE) Donnas Palm (IRE) Fisher Bridge (IRE) Aitmatov (GER)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 17.3% · 69–400

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 16% · 43–269

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Presenting (GB) 12.1% · 32–265

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Oscar (IRE) 17.4% · 23–132

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Zoffany (IRE) 8.9% · 11–124

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,778 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Alhaarth (IRE) 11.5% · 13–113

Progeny have won 9.7% of 4,158 runs since 2008 (308 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 10,556 · newest first

The latest 50 of 10,556 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Zoffman (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Clonmel Oil Service Station Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 7 ran 5th 7/2

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Esprit De Loi (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 80/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Fierce Handay (IRE)J: Simon Torrens racingtv.com/freetrial Beginners Chase15.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 4th 9/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Mickey Cohen (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Christmas Parties At Fairyhouse December 12th Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 1st 15/2

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Poets Rambler (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 3rd 11/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Joe Cool (IRE)J: Sam Coen Velo Coffee At The Curragh Maiden12f · Yielding · 19 ran 2nd 6/1

31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Charlie Luciano (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Steeplechase24f · Good · 12 ran PU 11/1

31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Ben Hur (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 12 ran UR 6/5F

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Zoffman (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Book Your Christmas Party At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 12/1

30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Stars Will Shine (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Happy Halloween Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 25/1

30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Blake (GB)J: Sam Ewing bottlegreen Hurdle (Listed)Class 1 · 17f · Good To Yielding · 4 ran 2nd 6/4J

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Gabby Hayes (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Premiere Weekend Race & Dine Packages From €75pp Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 6 ran 6th 8/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Lash La Rue (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 8th 200/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Sportinthepark (IRE)J: Sam Ewing W.b. Gavin & Co. Handicap Hurdle22f · Heavy · 12 ran 5th 9/2

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Plug In Hybrid (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler QuinnBet 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran UR 18/1

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Battle Ready (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 12/1

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Mickey Cohen (IRE)J: Mr Finn Tegetmeier Solar Generation Handicap Hurdle25.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 7th 4/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Charlie Luciano (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 10 ran 4th 11/2

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Chestnut Palace (IRE)J: Ben Coen Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 13th 7/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Acanto (IRE)J: Colin Keane Navan Racecourse Handicap14f · Yielding · 23 ran 4th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 31 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Noel Meade's strike rate?: Noel Meade has won 1,047 of 8,590 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Noel Meade do best at?: Downpatrick by strike rate: 53 wins from 216 runners (24.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Noel Meade?: Paul Carberry, with 1,333 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 193 (14.5%).
Is Noel Meade in form?: In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 5.9%. That is below the baseline of 12.2% since 2008.
What is Noel Meade's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 8,589 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.