Paul Cashman
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06).
The record is strongest at Limerick (11.8%, n=34), clear of the yard's 6.2% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.7% (n=59, Fair A/E 0.34). John Allen rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 1.20) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m – 1m1f (13.5%, n=37) and off a 15-30-day break (10%, n=150). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse (Apr 2011, £48,750). Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 535 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 535 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 7 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Paul Cashman's strike rate?
- Paul Cashman has won 26 of 417 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Paul Cashman do best at?
- Limerick by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Paul Cashman?
- John Allen, with 59 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6.8%).
- Is Paul Cashman in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Paul Cashman's Fair A/E?
- 1.06, from 417 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.