What is Paul D'Arcy's strike rate?

Paul D'Arcy has won 146 of 1,321 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul D'Arcy do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 14 wins from 85 runners (16.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul D'Arcy?

Tony Culhane, with 91 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (14.3%).

What is Paul D'Arcy's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 1,314 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul D'Arcy

1,321 runners in the lifetime window · 136 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jan 2021 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

146–1,321

Wins / Runs

11.1%

Strike rate

n=1,321

393 (30%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=1,314 · 0.86 incl. margin

−279.06

£1 level stake

n=1,321 at SP · −21.1%

£1.29m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

20%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 90 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). New recruits from other yards win at 13% first time out (45 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,321 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Dec–Mar 27.9% when favourite Tony Culhane: 14.3% from 91 New recruits: 13.3% Sent off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

It is weakest at Newmarket (2% over 50 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 2.4% (n=82, Fair A/E 0.51). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.9% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.18 and +17.75 to a £1 stake over 172 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Tony Culhane rode 7% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14.3% vs 11.1%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bet With Ascot Heritage Handicap at Ascot (Jul 2018, £62,250). The stable star of the record was Spring Loaded (IRE) — 11 wins from 41 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.9%−1.2

n=172 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +17.75

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.3%+2.2

n=45 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −23.25

Debutants · first career start

2.4%−8.7

n=82 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −48.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.8%−3.3

n=64 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −35.02

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.4%−6.7

n=45 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −35.00

When favourite

27.9%

n=140 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −34.09

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.2%−0.9

n=226 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −25.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.1%−3.0

n=62 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −0.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Sean Levey 25.6% vs 11.1% · n=39

On last-time-out winners 21.1% vs 11.1% · n=147

With debutants 2.4% vs 11.1% · n=82

At Newmarket 2% vs 11.1% · n=50

At Newmarket 2.8% vs 11.1% · n=72

With C&D winners 17.9% vs 11.1% · n=184

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,310 145 11.1% −287.06

Hurdle 6 0 0% −6.00

NH Flat 5 1 20% +14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 688 80 11.6% −123.75

Good to Firm 294 37 12.6% −74.50

Good 185 13 7% −44.12

Good to Soft 84 10 11.9% −4.27

Soft 55 3 5.5% −26.42

Heavy 8 0 0% −8.00

Firm 7 3 42.9% +2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 194 28 14.4% −54.56

Kempton 187 16 8.6% −60.38

Lingfield (AW) 133 16 12% −4.63

Yarmouth 105 15 14.3% −37.96

Southwell (AW) 85 14 16.5% +50.62

Chelmsford (AW) 84 6 7.1% −49.80

Newmarket 72 2 2.8% −35.00

Newmarket 50 1 2% −42.50

Nottingham 43 2 4.7% −33.00

Leicester 43 3 7% −32.92

Windsor 41 5 12.2% −8.25

Ascot 37 4 10.8% +13.00

Sandown 26 2 7.7% −20.52

Doncaster 24 3 12.5% −4.12

Newbury 20 4 20% +19.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 434 45 10.4% −152.10

Class 6 394 52 13.2% −47.74

Class 4 264 27 10.2% −79.80

Class 2 92 12 13% +38.25

Class 1 62 5 8.1% −0.67

Class 3 60 5 8.3% −22.00

Class 7 13 0 0% −13.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 165 43 26.1% 0.92 −43.34

2nd–3rd fav 324 58 17.9% 1.12 −26.22

4th–6th fav 401 30 7.5% 0.95 −96.50

7th+ in betting 431 15 3.5% 1.04 −113.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mcbirney (USA) 52 4 14 22 Dec 14

Darnathean (GB) 51 7 16 15 Oct 14

Anastazia (GB) 49 4 13 16 Nov 17

Spring Loaded (IRE) 41 11 20 22 Jun 19

Night Lily (IRE)from J Jay 41 7 16 9 Nov 12

Come On Blue Chip (IRE) 34 5 14 17 Jan 14

Ongoodform (IRE)then David Nicholls 32 3 13 28 Nov 12

Edinburgh Knight (IRE) 28 6 12 13 Oct 12

Fazbee (IRE) 28 3 10 28 Jun 10

Rockley Point (GB)then Katie Scott 27 1 10 8 Dec 17

Caledonian Gold (GB)then Lisa Williamson 26 0 6 30 Jan 18

Brynfa Boy (GB)then Patrick Morris 26 3 12 16 Sep 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 136 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from M Halford (2); 48 had their first archived run for this yard.

24 have since run for another yard, most often for John Butler (3); 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

151716101481311105718

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTony Culhane

7% of all rides
14.3% SR · A/E 1.02

RiderRWSR£1

Tony Culhane 91 13 14.3% −25.51

J F Egan 90 9 10% −28.00

Shane Kelly 80 7 8.8% −55.67

Luke Morris 65 8 12.3% −14.87

Liam Jones 64 9 14.1% −13.63

Joey Haynes 63 3 4.8% −40.00

Seb Sanders 62 3 4.8% −39.75

Mrs R Wilson 40 5 12.5% +6.00

Sean Levey 39 10 25.6% +16.75

William Carson 39 5 12.8% +36.00

Adam Kirby 37 7 18.9% +0.03

Frederik Tylicki 32 2 6.3% −11.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

177

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.51m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Spring Loaded (IRE) — Bet With Ascot Heritage Handicap Ascot · Jul 2018 · Class 2

£62,250

Pass The Vino (IRE) — Bet365 Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2019 · Class 2

£62,250

Spring Loaded (IRE) — William Hill Portland Handicap Doncaster · Sep 2017 · Class 2

£37,350

Notable horses

Spring Loaded (IRE) Darnathean (GB) Night Lily (IRE) Sir Duke (IRE) Edinburgh Knight (IRE) Suzi's Decision (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kyllachy (GB) 8.5% · 8–94

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 7.5% · 5–67

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

Zebedee (GB) 18% · 11–61

Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2014 (435 horses).

Librettist (USA) 13.7% · 7–51

Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,644 runs since 2010 (169 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.6% from 219.

Night Shift (USA) 17.1% · 7–41

Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,176 runs since 2008 (140 horses).

Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 14.7% · 5–34

Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,885 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,674 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,674 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 27 January 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Jan 21 Kempton (AW) Knight Of Kings (GB)J: J F Egan Unibet New Instant Roulette Maiden Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 6th 9/1

26 Jan 21 Southwell (AW) Cheat (IRE)J: J F Egan Bombardier March To Your Own Drum HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 1st 12/1

22 Jan 21 Chelmsford City (AW) Cheat (IRE)J: J F Egan Racing Welfare HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 40/1

06 Jan 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Power On (IRE)J: J F Egan Heed Your Hunch At Betway Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 18/5

05 Jan 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Cheat (IRE)J: James Sullivan Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 33/1

27 Dec 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Knight Of Kings (GB)J: J F Egan Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boost Novice StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 66/1

20 Dec 20 Southwell (AW) Light Lily (GB)J: Laura Pearson Bombardier HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 6/1

16 Dec 20 Kempton (AW) Cheat (IRE)J: J F Egan Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 13th 50/1

08 Dec 20 Southwell (AW) Sophar Sogood (IRE)J: Luke Morris Betyourway At Betway HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 5/2J

26 Nov 20 Southwell (AW) Sophar Sogood (IRE)J: Joe Williamson Betway Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 2nd 5/4F

26 Nov 20 Southwell (AW) Light Lily (GB)J: Stefano Cherchi Bombardier HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 11/1

21 Nov 20 Huntingdon Commander Rocks (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Bet 10 Get 20 'Junior' Maiden Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 13.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 18/1

04 Nov 20 Lingfield (AW) Kodikova (IRE)J: J F Egan Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 18/1

02 Nov 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Sophar Sogood (IRE)J: J F Egan Betway HandicapClass 4 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 11/2

29 Oct 20 Lingfield (AW) Light Lily (GB)J: George Rooke Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 10/1

29 Oct 20 Lingfield (AW) Gonna Dancealot (IRE)J: J F Egan Betway HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 11/1

22 Oct 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Hibernian Warrior (USA)J: J F Egan tote.co.uk Free Streaming Every UK Race HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 50/1

15 Oct 20 Southwell (AW) Kodikova (IRE)J: J F Egan attheraces.com HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 9/1

15 Oct 20 Southwell (AW) Hibernian Warrior (USA)J: J F Egan Download The At The Races App HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 14/1

12 Oct 20 Yarmouth Gonna Dancealot (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Free Daily Tips On attheraces.com HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul D'Arcy's strike rate?: Paul D'Arcy has won 146 of 1,321 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul D'Arcy do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 14 wins from 85 runners (16.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul D'Arcy?: Tony Culhane, with 91 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (14.3%).
What is Paul D'Arcy's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 1,314 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.