What is Adrian Brendan Joyce's strike rate?

Adrian Brendan Joyce has won 33 of 411 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Brendan Joyce do best at?

Dundalk by strike rate: 13 wins from 147 runners (8.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Adrian Brendan Joyce's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 409 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Brendan Joyce

411 runners in the lifetime window · 71 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Oct 2023

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

33–411

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=411

110 (27%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=409 · 0.77 incl. margin

−137.50

£1 level stake

n=411 at SP · −33.5%

£280k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98).

Deterministic profile computed from 411 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 22.6% when favourite Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=88, Fair A/E 0.81). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −63.50 to a £1 stake over 145 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (14.8%, n=88) and off a 15-30-day break (13.8%, n=116). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 2.3% over 44 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.54 across 70 runners (2.9% strike, −50.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Majestic Timeline (IRE) — 6 wins from 20 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.5%−3.5

n=88 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −34.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.8%−2.2

n=52 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −21.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−8.0

n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.3%−1.7

n=16 · A/E 2.05 · £1 +5.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.5%−3.5

n=22 · A/E 0.74 · £1 +4.00

When favourite

22.6%

n=31 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −4.75

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.8%−3.2

n=145 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −63.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.0

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 18.8% vs 8% · n=32

At trips under 6f 14.8% vs 8% · n=88

Off a 15-30-day break 13.8% vs 8% · n=116

On Good going 2.9% vs 8% · n=70

Over 1m5f – 2m 2.3% vs 8% · n=44

Off a break of 180+ days 2.6% vs 8% · n=39

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 328 29 8.8% −99.50

Hurdle 67 4 6% −22.00

NH Flat 11 0 0% −11.00

Chase 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 176 19 10.8% −49.50

Soft 79 4 5.1% −41.00

Good 70 2 2.9% −50.00

Good to Firm 35 3 8.6% +4.50

Heavy 33 2 6.1% −24.00

Good to Soft 18 3 16.7% +22.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 147 13 8.8% −48.75

Navan 28 2 7.1% −2.00

Roscommon 21 2 9.5% +4.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 17 4 23.5% −0.25

Curragh 17 0 0% −17.00

Gowran Park 15 1 6.7% −10.00

Fairyhouse 14 0 0% −14.00

Kilbeggan 14 1 7.1% +12.00

Down Royal 13 3 23.1% +4.00

Naas 13 1 7.7% +4.00

Tipperary 12 1 8.3% −4.50

Sligo 10 1 10% −1.00

Bellewstown 8 0 0% −8.00

Galway 8 0 0% −8.00

Leopardstown 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 22 4 18.2% −5.25

Class 7 7 2 28.6% +6.50

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 5 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 37 9 24.3% 1.02 −1.75

2nd–3rd fav 77 10 13% 0.95 −21.25

4th–6th fav 109 7 6.4% 0.84 −52.50

7th+ in betting 188 7 3.7% 1.16 −62.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Coach Bombay (IRE)from M Halford 39 4 15 15 Feb 19

Times In Anatefka (IRE) 32 4 13 14 May 17

Rock On Rosie (IRE)from Mrs Lorna Fowler · then Gordon Elliott 30 3 9 8 Nov 17

Gold Not Silver (IRE)from M Halford 25 2 8 9 Dec 16

Captains And Kings (IRE) 22 1 6 16 Jul 17

True Companion (IRE)then Nicky Henderson 21 2 6 17 Nov 17

Majestic Timeline (IRE)from Muredach Kelly 20 6 12 20 Jun 15

Mr Michael (IRE)from David Marnane 18 1 3 11 Jan 19

Blastofmagic (GB)from David Dennis · then Gerard O'Leary 17 2 6 14 Sep 19

Mercury (GB)from Kevin Ryan · then Stephen Michael Hanlon 17 1 5 5 Apr 19

Ken's Sam's (IRE)then E Sheehy 15 2 3 20 Jun 17

Florida's King (IRE) 12 0 0 4 Jun 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 71 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (26) and Muredach Kelly (3); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

40 have since run for another yard, most often for Denis Gerard Hogan (7) and Philip M Byrne (6); 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6101493996103107

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderShane Foley

12% of all rides
12.2% SR · A/E 1.69

RiderRWSR£1

Shane Foley 49 6 12.2% +6.50

Chris Hayes 34 4 11.8% −8.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

£280k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 10 wins

Florida Times (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Maiden Cork · Apr 2017

£9,240

Rock On Rosie (IRE) — Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Maiden Dundalk (AW) · Jan 2016

£7,590

Gold Not Silver (IRE) — Bet With The Tote Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Down Royal · Feb 2014

£6,900

Notable horses

Majestic Timeline (IRE) Coach Bombay (IRE) Times In Anatefka (IRE) Rock On Rosie (IRE) Gold Not Silver (IRE) True Companion (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Ad Valorem (USA) 10.3% · 4–39

Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,585 runs since 2010 (101 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.3% from 618. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 5.2% from 248.

Pyrus (USA) 12.5% · 4–32

Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,446 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 119. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 208.

Gamut (IRE) 10% · 3–30

Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,839 runs since 2010 (172 horses).

Celtic Swing (GB) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,248 runs since 2008 (160 horses).

Pilsudski (IRE) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 6.3% of 605 runs since 2008 (75 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.5% from 199. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.3% from 209.

Fast Company (IRE) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,603 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 411 · newest first

The latest 50 of 411 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2013 to 1 October 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Oct 23 Tipperary French Hill (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Peppermill Restaurant Nenagh Fillies Flat Race16f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 11/1

30 Sep 23 Gowran Park Suile Ban (IRE)J: Daniel King Joe Bollard Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Heavy · 19 ran 6th 10/1

30 Sep 23 Gowran Park Ogee (IRE)J: Daniel King Golf Memberships At Gowran Park Maiden Hurdle20f · Heavy · 17 ran 12th 200/1

29 Sep 23 Dundalk (AW) Sky Legend (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Dual Racing Friday Nights Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)12f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 18/1

29 Sep 23 Dundalk (AW) Ciao Adios (IRE)J: Kyle McHugh Dual Racing Friday Nights Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)12f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 12/1

29 Sep 23 Dundalk (AW) Expound (GB)J: J M Sheridan View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (50-85)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 13/2

29 Sep 23 Dundalk (AW) Autocrat (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (50-85)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 33/1

29 Sep 23 Dundalk (AW) Rumbled Again (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Gateway Hotel Race & Stay Apprentice Handicap (47-75)6f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 6/1

28 Sep 23 Clonmel More Info (IRE)J: Daniel King Clonmel Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

24 Sep 23 Curragh Almuhit (IRE)J: W J Lee Friends Of The Curragh Pollardstown Handicap (0-95)17f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 17/2

22 Sep 23 Listowel Thecompanysergeant (GB)J: Daniel King Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (Listed)16f · Yielding To Soft · 17 ran 4th 6/1

21 Sep 23 Listowel Eloquent Arthur (GB)J: J M Sheridan Tote Ireland Handicap (50-80)9f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 3rd 5/1

21 Sep 23 Listowel Sportingsilvermine (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Buckley Agri New Holland Irish Ebf Median Auction Maiden8f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 6th 18/1

18 Sep 23 Fairyhouse Hot Whispers (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (47-70)6f · Yielding · 17 ran 15th 11/1

18 Sep 23 Listowel Can't Resist It (GB)J: Mr J H Williamson Eric Browne Memorial Flat Race16f · Yielding · 9 ran 4th 14/1

18 Sep 23 Listowel Darkened (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16f · Yielding · 16 ran 8th 11/1

18 Sep 23 Listowel Chautuaqua (IRE)J: Daniel King Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 2/1F

13 Sep 23 Tramore Sky Legend (GB)J: Daniel King Gaultier Handicap (47-65)16f · Good · 9 ran 5th 13/2

13 Sep 23 Punchestown Super Cub (GB)J: Paddy Harnett Return Of Jumps October 10th & 11th Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)9f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 11th 10/1

13 Sep 23 Tramore Ciao Adios (IRE)J: Sean D Bowen Copper Coast Handicap (47-65)12f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adrian Brendan Joyce's strike rate?: Adrian Brendan Joyce has won 33 of 411 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Brendan Joyce do best at?: Dundalk by strike rate: 13 wins from 147 runners (8.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Adrian Brendan Joyce's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 409 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.