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Trainer profile

Adrian Sexton

553 runners in the lifetime window · 84 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 13 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
14–553
Wins / Runs
2.5%
Strike rate
n=553
63 (11%)
Placed
0.69
Fair A/E
n=553 · 0.53 incl. margin
−358.53
£1 level stake
n=553 at SP · −64.8%
£202k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69).

Deterministic profile computed from 553 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Nov Harry Sexton: 4% from 151 New recruits: 3% Claiming riders: 2.8%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.77 and −238.28 to a £1 stake over 395 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Harry Sexton rides 27% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4%, A/E 0.90). The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.00 across 51 runners (0% strike, −51.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the yard fires Sep–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.3%−1.2
n=77 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −67.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
3%+0.5
n=33 · A/E 1.70 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
2.2%−0.3
n=45 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.5
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.5
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −2.53
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.8%+0.3
n=395 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −238.28
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.5
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Ian McCarthy 10% vs 2.5% · n=50
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 2.5% · n=51
Over 1m – 1m1f 0% vs 2.5% · n=47
In NH Flat races 0% vs 2.5% · n=36
At Punchestown 0% vs 2.5% · n=34
With Conor Lamon 0% vs 2.5% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 305 12 3.9% −146.03
Flat 190 2 1.1% −154.50
NH Flat 36 0 0% −36.00
Chase 22 0 0% −22.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 146 3 2.1% −116.50
Good 144 3 2.1% −80.50
Heavy 96 4 4.2% −63.53
Good to Soft 81 3 3.7% −21.50
Standard (AW) 58 1 1.7% −48.50
Good to Firm 27 0 0% −27.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 50 1 2% −40.50
Naas 35 1 2.9% −9.00
Punchestown 34 0 0% −34.00
Gowran Park 33 1 3% −31.78
Leopardstown 27 0 0% −27.00
Kilbeggan 26 1 3.8% −18.50
Ballinrobe 25 0 0% −25.00
Curragh 25 0 0% −25.00
Listowel 23 0 0% −23.00
Fairyhouse 23 1 4.3% −15.50
Clonmel 22 0 0% −22.00
Limerick 22 0 0% −22.00
Downpatrick 21 0 0% −21.00
Galway 21 2 9.5% −11.25
Tramore 20 0 0% −20.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 5 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 7 2 28.6% 0.95 −3.53
2nd–3rd fav 31 3 9.7% 0.78 −9.00
4th–6th fav 104 2 1.9% 0.33 −88.50
7th+ in betting 411 7 1.7% 0.86 −257.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Katherine (IRE)from James M Barrett 46 3 7 5 Sep 26
Conclave (IRE)from J S Bolger · then W P Mullins 25 2 7 20 Feb 09
Dixon Line (GB)from Kevin Prendergast 22 0 3 30 Apr 23
Doyen Og (IRE) 20 0 2 17 Oct 26
Ballygill Gale (IRE)from V T O'Brien · then V T O'Brien 19 1 3 3 Jun 10
Shing Shilla (IRE) 18 0 1 29 Jun 26
Athagabhain (IRE)from D Buckley 17 1 1 9 Jul 23
Bears Hug (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast · then J P Dempsey 17 1 1 26 Dec 22
Carlowsantana (IRE)then S T Nolan 16 0 2 11 Jan 09
Essential Part (IRE)from Peter McCreery 14 0 0 22 Oct 24
Srowland Jack (IRE) 13 0 0 30 Jun 23
Likealightswitch (IRE)from Colin Motherway 12 1 6 17 Oct 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 84 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Colin Motherway (2) and J S Bolger (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for W P Mullins (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
004000724840
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderHarry Sexton
27% of all rides
4% SR · A/E 0.90
RiderRWSR£1
Harry Sexton 151 6 4% −52.78
Ian McCarthy 50 5 10% +8.50
Conor Lamon 34 0 0% −34.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
20
Archived wins
£272k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Conclave (IRE) — Diamond Vision Novice Hurdle Galway · Oct 2008
£13,020
Carlowsantana (IRE) — Helena Sheahan Memorial Maiden Listowel · Sep 2006
£11,747
Dunroe Lady (IRE) — williamhillcasino.com Handicap Hurdle (81-116) Navan · Nov 2008
£8,983
Notable horses
Katherine (IRE) Bawn Og (IRE) Carlowsantana (IRE) Conclave (IRE) Dunroe Lady (IRE) Ballygill Gale (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Shirocco (GER) 6.3% · 3–48
Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,183 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Doyen (IRE) 2.4% · 1–41
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,376 runs since 2009 (605 horses).
Key Of Luck (USA) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.
Mayson (GB) 0% · 0–22
Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,389 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.
Atraf (GB) 5% · 1–20
Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,220 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 317. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 3.9% from 204. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.4% from 135. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.1% from 293.
Sheer Danzig (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 4.7% of 86 runs since 2008 (7 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 729 · newest first

The latest 50 of 729 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 December 2005 to 23 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Katty (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Fastfix Quay Celtic 60th Anniversary Nursery Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 11/1
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) One Flash (IRE)J: Shane Foley 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 22/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Sands Castle (IRE)J: Conor Lamon Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 8th 16/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Doyen Og (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div I)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 3rd 20/1
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Likealightswitch (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Master Chefs Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 12th 28/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) One Flash (IRE)J: Shane Foley Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 66/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Katty (IRE)J: Shane Foley Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 9th 9/2
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Doyen Og (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Tennent's NI Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 14 ran 5th 9/1
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Like An Ocean (IRE)J: Harry Sexton BOYLE Sports Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 6th 500/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Likealightswitch (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Irish Stallion Farms EBF Pat Walsh Memorial Mares Hurdle16.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 18/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Like An Ocean (IRE)J: Conor Lamon Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 16 ran 13th 40/1
01 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Doyen Og (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Ravens Rock Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 16 ran 7th 9/1
27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) One Flash (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Army Equitation Centenary Irish EBF Maiden7f · Heavy · 13 ran 8th 40/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Katty (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Market Square Monasterevin Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 28/1
18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Doyen Og (IRE)J: Daniel King MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (Div I)18f · Good · 12 ran 4th 6/1
09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Spent All Me Money (IRE)J: Conor Lamon Follow Us On X Handicap7f · Good · 22 ran 11th 22/1
05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Katherine (IRE)J: Conor Lamon Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div I)10f · Good · 21 ran 19th 100/1
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Sands Castle (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Coca-Cola HBC Ireland And Northern Ireland 3-Y-O Hurdle17.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 8/1
26 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Katherine (IRE)J: Harry Sexton Money Back Daily Specials With Tote.ie Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 16 ran 11th 28/1
23 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Katsuit (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Matchbook Exchange Irish EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Good · 15 ran 12th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 11 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 11 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adrian Sexton's strike rate?
Adrian Sexton has won 14 of 553 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Sexton do best at?
Gowran Park by strike rate: 1 wins from 33 runners (3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Sexton?
Harry Sexton, with 151 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (4%).
Is Adrian Sexton in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adrian Sexton's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 553 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).