What is Carroll Gray's strike rate?

Carroll Gray has won 21 of 699 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Carroll Gray do best at?

Exeter by strike rate: 4 wins from 92 runners (4.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Carroll Gray?

Micheal Nolan, with 146 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (4.1%).

What is Carroll Gray's Fair A/E?

0.62, from 697 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Carroll Gray

699 runners in the lifetime window · 98 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 24 days ago 90% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

21–699

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=699

100 (14%)

Placed

0.62

Fair A/E

n=697 · 0.53 incl. margin

−467.92

£1 level stake

n=699 at SP · −66.9%

£190k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.62).

Deterministic profile computed from 699 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Micheal Nolan: 4.1% from 146 Claiming riders: 3.1%

The read

It is weakest at Chepstow (0% over 51 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 0% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.58 and −268.67 to a £1 stake over 419 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Micheal Nolan rides 21% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.1%, A/E 0.87). The yard also reads well beyond 3m (8.6%, n=58) and on Heavy going (6.9%, n=87).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.5%−0.5

n=162 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −113.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

1.6%−1.4

n=64 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −58.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−3.0

n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−3.0

n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−3.0

n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00

When favourite

15.8%

n=19 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −6.92

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.1%+0.1

n=419 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −268.67

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−3.0

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Beyond 3m 8.6% vs 3% · n=58

With Harry Skelton 8.9% vs 3% · n=45

With C&D winners 8.8% vs 3% · n=34

On Heavy going 6.9% vs 3% · n=87

With Sean Houlihan 0% vs 3% · n=52

At Chepstow 0% vs 3% · n=51

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 414 10 2.4% −261.17

Chase 177 9 5.1% −113.75

Flat 73 2 2.7% −58.00

NH Flat 35 0 0% −35.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 226 3 1.3% −207.50

Good to Soft 139 3 2.2% −112.75

Soft 114 3 2.6% −101.50

Heavy 87 6 6.9% +15.50

Good to Firm 83 4 4.8% −26.67

Standard (AW) 46 2 4.3% −31.00

Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newton Abbot 113 2 1.8% −93.25

Taunton 106 2 1.9% −81.00

Wincanton 97 4 4.1% −15.50

Exeter 92 4 4.3% −38.17

Chepstow 51 0 0% −51.00

Worcester 44 0 0% −44.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 29 2 6.9% −14.00

Fontwell 22 2 9.1% −12.25

Hereford 20 1 5% −15.00

Stratford 18 0 0% −18.00

Bath 13 0 0% −13.00

Towcester 11 0 0% −11.00

Warwick 10 0 0% −10.00

Lingfield (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00

Uttoxeter 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 319 10 3.1% −223.00

Class 4 261 9 3.4% −140.92

Class 6 77 2 2.6% −62.00

Class 3 40 0 0% −40.00

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 22 4 18.2% 0.82 −6.42

2nd–3rd fav 49 8 16.3% 1.10 −8.00

4th–6th fav 178 6 3.4% 0.51 −121.50

7th+ in betting 450 3 0.7% 0.31 −332.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 222 9 4.1% −101.75

2m1f – 2m4f 214 4 1.9% −162.17

2m5f – 3m 160 3 1.9% −138.75

Over 3m 58 5 8.6% −20.25

1m2f – 1m4f 26 0 0% −26.00

1m – 1m1f 9 0 0% −9.00

6f – 7f 6 0 0% −6.00

Under 6f 4 0 0% −4.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 69 3 4.3% −55.75

2009 31 1 3.2% −25.00

2010 55 3 5.5% −10.67

2011 43 1 2.3% −30.00

2012 32 2 6.3% −22.25

2013 33 3 9.1% −2.75

2014 42 3 7.1% +43.50

2015 47 1 2.1% −42.00

2016 23 0 0% −23.00

2017 61 0 0% −61.00

2018 20 0 0% −20.00

2019 36 0 0% −36.00

2020 22 0 0% −22.00

2021 42 0 0% −42.00

2022 35 3 8.6% −14.50

2023 29 0 0% −29.00

2024 34 0 0% −34.00

2025 27 1 3.7% −23.50

2026 18 0 0% −18.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 469 16 3.4% −330.17

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 231 3 1.3% −212.17

8-10 runners 193 7 3.6% −137.00

5-7 runners 116 6 5.2% −79.00

14-16 runners 112 4 3.6% +4.00

17+ runners 36 0 0% −36.00

2-4 runners 11 1 9.1% −7.75

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

79.2% completed · 591 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 177 70.1% 6 4 42 1 0

Hurdle 414 83.1% 7 5 57 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bellamy's Grey (GB) 38 1 9 6 Mar 25

Mon Chevalier (IRE)from Peter Casey 29 3 12 8 Oct 15

All But Grey (GB) 25 2 5 26 May 17

Nomad (FR)from F Doumen 22 3 5 25 Oct 12

Monsieur (FR)from Stephen Clark 22 1 9 14 Mar 11

Le Forezien (FR) 21 2 6 6 Oct 10

Frame Rate (GB)from Iain Jardine 20 2 8 23 Apr 23

Saint Breiz (FR)from John Joseph Hanlon · then Mrs G B Walford 20 1 5 2 Mar 17

Young Tot (IRE)from David Evans 20 0 3 23 Sep 10

Freddie Fleetfoot (GB) 18 0 2 3 Oct 26

Vinnie's Icon (IRE) 18 0 1 21 Jul 22

Sevenofus (IRE)from Neil Mulholland 17 0 5 20 Jul 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 98 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Bill Turner (2) and Clive Cox (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

513362024082

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderMicheal Nolan

21% of all rides
4.1% SR · A/E 0.87

RiderRWSR£1

Micheal Nolan 146 6 4.1% −110.25

Sean Houlihan 52 0 0% −52.00

Harry Skelton 45 4 8.9% +9.75

Ian Popham 34 1 2.9% −29.67

Mr Robert Hawker 34 0 0% −34.00

Bernie Wharfe 32 1 3.1% −26.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£211k

Prize money

2022

Best season · 3 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

All But Grey (GB) — Royal Bath & West Show Novices' Handicap Chase Wincanton · May 2015 · Class 4

£4,549

Basman Palace (SAF) — Wincanton Fireworks On Sale Now Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Wincanton · Mar 2025 · Class 5

£4,225

All But Grey (GB) — Bathwick Tyres Taunton Novices' Hurdle Taunton · Jan 2014 · Class 4

£4,224

Notable horses

Le Forezien (FR) Mon Chevalier (IRE) Nomad (FR) Volio Vincente (FR) All But Grey (GB) Frame Rate (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 2.6% · 1–38

Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,685 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.

Montjeu (IRE) 10.3% · 3–29

Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.

Baryshnikov (AUS) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 5.7% of 562 runs since 2008 (70 horses).

Brier Creek (USA) 13.6% · 3–22

Progeny have won 14.1% of 553 runs since 2008 (38 horses).

Cyborg (FR) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 8.9% of 470 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Weakest on Good going: 4.9% from 102.

Gunboat Diplomacy (FR) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 15.4% of 26 runs since 2008 (3 horses). A small sample.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 786 · newest first

The latest 50 of 786 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 9 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Sharu (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle Race (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 50/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Forest Hills (IRE)J: Oliver Carmichael Your Elite Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 17f · Good · 12 ran UR 50/1

03 Oct 26 Fontwell Freddie Fleetfoot (GB)J: Jack Stenhouse Attheraces.com Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 7th 40/1

22 Apr 26 Taunton Forest Hills (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Dorset & Somerset Air Ambulance Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good · 10 ran 5th 50/1

12 Apr 26 Wincanton Forest Hills (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Visit Bridles Care Home Wincanton Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 15f · Good · 8 ran 6th 40/1

09 Apr 26 Taunton Jacks Brother (GB)J: Mr Jack Stenhouse St Michael's Church Orchard Portman Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 200/1

01 Apr 26 Wincanton All Night Parking (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Visit Bridles Care Home Wincanton Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 125/1

26 Mar 26 Chepstow Gingerbred (GB)J: Mr Jack Stenhouse Stephens Industries EPDM Flat Roofing Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 30.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 17/2

06 Mar 26 Exeter Gingerbred (GB)J: James Davies Keystone Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 4th 17/2

26 Feb 26 Taunton Bowmans Dream (GB)J: James Davies St Austell Brewery Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 250/1

26 Feb 26 Taunton All Night Parking (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan St Austell Brewery Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 125/1

20 Feb 26 Exeter Forest Hills (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Best Odds Guaranteed Overnight At CopyBet Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 7th 300/1

12 Feb 26 Taunton Gingerbred (GB)J: James Davies Paul Barber Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 22/1

12 Feb 26 Taunton All Night Parking (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Ross Stacey Still Cannot Cook Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Heavy · 10 ran F 125/1

29 Jan 26 Wincanton Forest Hills (IRE)J: James Davies Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15f · Heavy · 17 ran 15th 250/1

18 Jan 26 Windsor Gingerbred (GB)J: James Davies Fitzdares Personal Betting Service Stayers Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 28.5f · Soft · 16 ran PU 33/1

15 Jan 26 Wincanton Freddie Fleetfoot (GB)J: Sean Houlihan Get The Best Odds With Oddschecker Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 15f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 12/1

08 Jan 26 Taunton Forest Hills (IRE)J: James Davies 17 January Saturday Meeting Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 7 ran 7th 150/1

30 Dec 25 Taunton Gingerbred (GB)J: James Davies Boyle Sports Daily Money Back Meetings Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 5/1

11 Dec 25 Taunton Freddie Fleetfoot (GB)J: James Davies Boyle Sports Opening Soon In Taunton Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 8th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 9 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Carroll Gray's strike rate?: Carroll Gray has won 21 of 699 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Carroll Gray do best at?: Exeter by strike rate: 4 wins from 92 runners (4.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Carroll Gray?: Micheal Nolan, with 146 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (4.1%).
What is Carroll Gray's Fair A/E?: 0.62, from 697 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.