What is Emma Lavelle's strike rate?

Emma Lavelle has won 634 of 4,507 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Emma Lavelle do best at?

Stratford by strike rate: 33 wins from 169 runners (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Emma Lavelle?

Tom Bellamy, with 670 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 103 (15.4%).

Is Emma Lavelle in form?

In the last 14 days: 21 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 4.8%. That is below the baseline of 14.1% since 2008.

What is Emma Lavelle's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 4,501 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Emma Lavelle

4,507 runners in the lifetime window · 496 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 3.8% of 318 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 30 Oct 2026.

Last runner yesterday 91% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

634–4,507

Wins / Runs

14.1%

Strike rate

n=4,507

1,583 (35%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=4,501 · 0.88 incl. margin

−697.80

£1 level stake

n=4,506 at SP · −15.5%

£8.67m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 240 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,507 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov 34% when favourite Tom Bellamy: 15.4% from 670 New recruits: 14.8% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newton Abbot (22.6%, n=93) and Doncaster (21.2%, n=132) — all clear of the yard's 14.1% baseline. It is weakest at Newbury (8.2% over 267 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 8.2% (n=85, Fair A/E 0.83). A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 15.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +9.96 to a £1 stake over 164 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 21 runners in the last 14 days (4.8%, 9.3pts below the 14.1% baseline). Tom Bellamy rides 15% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.4%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 5.6% over 72 runners, 8.5pts below the baseline. 33 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham (Mar 2019, £182,878). The stable star of the record: Hang In There (IRE) — 13 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

13.9%−0.2

n=1,349 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −144.94

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.8%+0.7

n=142 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +42.71

Debutants · first career start

13.2%−0.9

n=318 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −22.35

First-time headgear · true-first definition

15.2%+1.1

n=164 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +9.96

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.2%−5.9

n=85 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −20.70

When favourite

34%

n=588 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −57.44

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.7%−2.4

n=841 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −169.27

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.1%−3.0

n=298 · A/E 1.08 · £1 +16.74

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Harry Cobden 25% vs 14.1% · n=116

At Newton Abbot 22.6% vs 14.1% · n=93

Over 6f – 7f 5.6% vs 14.1% · n=72

At Doncaster 21.2% vs 14.1% · n=132

At Newbury 8.2% vs 14.1% · n=267

With Charles Bishop 5.3% vs 14.1% · n=38

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 2,236 321 14.4% −377.09

Chase 1,445 218 15.1% −342.73

NH Flat 435 52 12% +47.10

Flat 391 43 11% −25.08

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,821 262 14.4% −328.48

Good to Soft 1,096 142 13% −263.45

Soft 830 120 14.5% −79.66

Good to Firm 292 51 17.5% +48.52

Heavy 291 38 13.1% −106.84

Standard (AW) 164 19 11.6% +27.61

Firm 13 2 15.4% +4.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newbury 267 22 8.2% −124.14

Wincanton 245 41 16.7% −16.24

Kempton 239 37 15.5% +75.51

Exeter 238 37 15.5% −45.07

Uttoxeter 213 26 12.2% −53.69

Fontwell 200 32 16% −12.99

Chepstow 195 28 14.4% −56.08

Cheltenham 193 17 8.8% −85.02

Warwick 183 19 10.4% −56.60

Worcester 172 30 17.4% +26.17

Stratford 169 33 19.5% +1.34

Ascot 168 14 8.3% −81.92

Huntingdon 159 23 14.5% −41.74

Taunton 142 25 17.6% +7.28

Plumpton 135 18 13.3% −59.98

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,784 268 15% −347.11

Class 3 975 147 15.1% −233.31

Class 5 662 97 14.7% +23.15

Class 2 460 57 12.4% −70.77

Class 1 400 40 10% −33.51

Class 6 225 25 11.1% −35.25

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 688 222 32.3% 1.03 −75.24

2nd–3rd fav 1,431 259 18.1% 1.04 −185.56

4th–6th fav 1,427 113 7.9% 0.95 −233.50

7th+ in betting 960 39 4.1% 1.06 −203.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m5f – 3m 1,546 208 13.5% −382.75

2m1f – 2m4f 1,309 208 15.9% −55.35

1m5f – 2m 1,020 157 15.4% −26.17

Over 3m 359 37 10.3% −134.50

1m2f – 1m4f 116 9 7.8% −33.49

6f – 7f 72 4 5.6% −40.62

1m – 1m1f 70 7 10% −29.92

Under 6f 15 4 26.7% +5.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 262 28 10.7% −55.62

2009 212 29 13.7% −7.70

2010 194 33 17% +5.46

2011 235 36 15.3% +0.79

2012 201 27 13.4% −64.72

2013 226 32 14.2% −48.43

2014 199 24 12.1% −67.77

2015 196 22 11.2% −70.84

2016 169 27 16% +20.90

2017 192 27 14.1% −55.01

2018 262 34 13% −45.66

2019 233 36 15.5% −42.76

2020 229 28 12.2% −89.29

2021 261 46 17.6% +118.55

2022 265 37 14% −88.46

2023 287 42 14.6% −69.95

2024 343 39 11.4% −88.59

2025 319 52 16.3% −56.15

2026 222 35 15.8% +7.45

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,679 371 13.8% −371.51

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,365 174 12.7% −291.91

11-13 runners 1,058 124 11.7% −75.69

5-7 runners 1,005 213 21.2% −100.50

14-16 runners 627 56 8.9% −182.93

17+ runners 283 19 6.7% −4.52

2-4 runners 168 47 28% −42.25

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.1% completed · 3,681 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,445 77.4% 59 34 220 5 9

Hurdle 2,236 88.5% 42 23 190 0 3

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fox Appeal (IRE) 54 8 18 20 Apr 19

Hang In There (IRE)from Ms Margaret Mullins 49 13 23 24 Oct 26

Grey Fox (IRE) 47 7 11 12 Sep 26

Vendredi Trois (FR) 42 4 16 3 Sep 20

Fortunate George (IRE) 36 6 14 31 Dec 20

Water Wagtail (GB) 34 3 14 31 Dec 19

Porter In The Park (IRE) 33 4 15 28 Oct 26

Irish Prophecy (IRE) 33 7 12 24 Aug 23

Misty Bloom (IRE) 32 5 14 25 Mar 22

Pause And Clause (IRE)then N W Alexander 32 3 11 4 Mar 13

Paisley Park (IRE) 31 11 23 14 Mar 24

Flemcara (IRE) 31 6 11 13 Mar 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 496 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 18 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive; 44 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard; 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 21 4.8% · −9.3pts vs baseline

Last 14 days4.8%

Lifetime base14.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

141413121311171114171712

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Bellamy

15% of all rides
15.4% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Bellamy 670 103 15.4% −180.63

Jack Doyle 483 73 15.1% −8.89

Aidan Coleman 374 59 15.8% −11.38

Adam Wedge 250 41 16.4% +58.61

Ben Jones 235 40 17% +30.14

Daryl Jacob 188 31 16.5% −3.70

Joe Anderson 164 18 11% −58.93

Gavin Sheehan 144 19 13.2% −40.00

Leighton Aspell 133 23 17.3% −18.33

Noel Fehily 121 24 19.8% +11.60

Harry Cobden 116 29 25% −28.32

Dominic Elsworth 95 9 9.5% −56.90

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

715

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.53m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 52 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Paisley Park (IRE) — Sun Racing Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2019 · Grade 1

£182,878

De Rasher Counter (GB) — Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Newbury · Nov 2019 · Grade 3

£142,375

Eclair Surf (FR) — Agetur UK Ltd Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Warwick · Jan 2022 · Grade 3

£56,950

Notable horses

Hang In There (IRE) Paisley Park (IRE) Master Milliner (IRE) Fox Appeal (IRE) Kangaroo Court (IRE) Grey Fox (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Oscar (IRE) 18.3% · 45–246

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Flemensfirth (USA) 20% · 42–210

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 17.6% · 33–188

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,827 runs since 2008 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.

Kayf Tara (GB) 14.4% · 15–104

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,746 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Brian Boru (GB) 12.5% · 12–96

Progeny have won 11% of 4,123 runs since 2008 (285 horses).

Milan (GB) 9.6% · 9–94

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,862 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,189 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,189 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Muskoka (IRE)J: Charlie Todd Walters Group Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 12/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford George's Lad (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Happy Birthday Penny Tyacke Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 17/2

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Shanagolden Girl (IRE)J: James Best bettingsites.co.uk Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 10/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Smash Royale (GB)J: Charles Bishop David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Soft · 12 ran 10th 150/1

28 Oct 26 Huntingdon Porter In The Park (IRE)J: Cameron Johnstone-Baker 2026/27 Annual Badges Now On Sale At Huntingdon Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 25f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 3/1J

26 Oct 26 Hereford Stepanov (IRE)J: Charlie Todd BETTING.BET Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II) (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 7/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Glimmer (GB)J: Sean Levey British Ebf Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 18/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Hang In There (IRE)J: Ben Jones Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 15th 66/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Chilli King (GB)J: George Wood Midnite: Built For 2027 Not 2007 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 11/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Indemnity (IRE)J: David Probert Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 13th 18/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Squire Danagher (GB)J: Charles Bishop Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 10th 33/1

21 Oct 26 Fontwell Eastern Rock (IRE)J: Adam Wedge BETTING.BET Free Racing Tips Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 15/2

19 Oct 26 Plumpton Grey Gamble (IRE)J: Harry Cobden Aldaniti Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 5th 7/1

19 Oct 26 Plumpton A Little Something (GB)J: Charlie Todd Nick And Valda Embiricos Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 5th 10/1

19 Oct 26 Plumpton Tashan (GB)J: Harry Cobden Bet Goodwin Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 4/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Silver Wraith (GB)J: Charles Bishop Big Stage Hire Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 5/2F

17 Oct 26 Stratford Kit's Coty (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Roy G. T. Clark 100th Birthday Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 22.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 9/2

17 Oct 26 Stratford Watamu (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Tracey- Ann Hen Day To Remember Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 5/4F

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Light N Strike (IRE)J: James Bowen Pertemps Network Jean & Paul Lucas Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21.5f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 9/2

17 Oct 26 Stratford Kilworth (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good · 4 ran 4th 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 8 runs (won 0) · to 21 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Emma Lavelle's strike rate?: Emma Lavelle has won 634 of 4,507 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.1% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Emma Lavelle do best at?: Stratford by strike rate: 33 wins from 169 runners (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Emma Lavelle?: Tom Bellamy, with 670 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 103 (15.4%).
Is Emma Lavelle in form?: In the last 14 days: 21 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 4.8%. That is below the baseline of 14.1% since 2008.
What is Emma Lavelle's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 4,501 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.