Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (75 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 419 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 6.7%Claiming riders: 4.9%
The read
The record is strongest at Tramore (9.8%, n=41), Wexford (9.1%, n=33) and Thurles (7.5%, n=40) — all clear of the yard's 4.5% baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.37 across 151 runners (2% strike, −135.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Our Katie (IRE) — 5 wins from 14 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.7%+2.2
n=75 · A/E 1.74 · £1 −32.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%+2.6
n=28 · A/E 2.36 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
2.5%−2.0
n=40 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −33.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.5
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.5
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.54 · £1 −1.10
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.9%+0.4
n=162 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −100.10
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.5
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Tramore9.8% vs 4.5% · n=41
At Wexford9.1% vs 4.5% · n=33
On Good going2% vs 4.5% · n=151
At Cork1.7% vs 4.5% · n=58
At Thurles7.5% vs 4.5% · n=40
With horses switching code2.1% vs 4.5% · n=94
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle19063.2%−144.50
Chase13086.2%−66.60
Flat6746%−22.50
NH Flat3213.1%−21.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good15132%−135.50
Soft12286.6%−50.90
Heavy6845.9%−41.70
Good to Soft4824.2%−28.50
Standard (AW)2328.7%+9.00
Good to Firm700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork5811.7%−51.50
Limerick4212.4%−35.00
Tramore4149.8%+4.00
Thurles4037.5%−30.60
Tipperary3925.1%−19.50
Wexford3339.1%−2.00
Clonmel2514%−20.50
Dundalk (AW)2328.7%+9.00
Killarney2200%−22.00
Listowel1700%−17.00
Gowran Park1300%−13.00
Leopardstown1000%−10.00
Punchestown1000%−10.00
Fairyhouse900%−9.00
Kilbeggan800%−8.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11200%−12.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 42150%+1.50
Class 5200%−2.00
Class 611100%+5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8225%1.12−4.10
2nd–3rd fav47714.9%1.09−5.00
4th–6th fav9277.6%1.14−20.50
7th+ in betting27231.1%0.45−225.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f14953.4%−102.50
2m5f – 3m10776.5%−49.10
1m5f – 2m10243.9%−68.50
1m2f – 1m4f3525.7%−12.00
Over 3m1218.3%−8.50
1m – 1m1f1000%−10.00
6f – 7f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081200%−12.00
2009400%−4.00
2010500%−5.00
2011100%−1.00
2012300%−3.00
20134250%+8.00
201410110%−3.00
201511218.2%−7.10
2016100%−1.00
20172800%−28.00
20183937.7%−23.00
20194212.4%−34.50
20203625.6%−12.50
20212727.4%−1.00
20224412.3%−32.00
20234424.5%−21.00
20244224.8%−19.50
20253812.6%−27.00
20262800%−28.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps229125.2%−109.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners15164%−91.00
11-13 runners11354.4%−68.70
17+ runners8100%−81.00
8-10 runners5159.8%−2.50
5-7 runners2129.5%−15.40
2-4 runners2150%+4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 68 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Barry Connell (6) and Paul O'Flynn (3); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.
12 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
134626525100110
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
20
Archived wins
£236k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 7% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 320. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.6% from 192. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.5% from 120.
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,355 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Dr Massini (IRE)25% · 5–20
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 427 · newest first
The latest 50 of 427 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 March 2007 to 16 August 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is G Ahern's strike rate?
G Ahern has won 19 of 419 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.5% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does G Ahern do best at?
Tramore by strike rate: 4 wins from 41 runners (9.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is G Ahern's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 419 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
G Ahern·SR 4.5%·A/E 0.90
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