What is Hugo Palmer's strike rate?

Hugo Palmer has won 793 of 5,511 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.4% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Hugo Palmer do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 81 wins from 426 runners (19%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Hugo Palmer?

James Doyle, with 548 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 101 (18.4%).

Is Hugo Palmer in form?

In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 14.4% since 2008.

What is Hugo Palmer's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 5,476 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Hugo Palmer

5,511 runners in the lifetime window · 746 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 4.9% of 597 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 11 Nov 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

793–5,511

Wins / Runs

14.4%

Strike rate

n=5,511

1,940 (35%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=5,476 · 0.91 incl. margin

−838.09

£1 level stake

n=5,511 at SP · −15.2%

£16.1m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 290 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). New recruits from other yards win at 20% first time out (70 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 5,511 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb Fresh horses: 15.8% 37.1% when favourite James Doyle: 18.4% from 548 New recruits: 20% Sends off the favourite in 14% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Salisbury (23.5%, n=68), Carlisle (24%, n=50) and Hamilton (23.3%, n=60) — all clear of the yard's 14.4% baseline. It is weakest at Ascot (7.5% over 214 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 20% (n=70, Fair A/E 1.55), but a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 9.4% (n=64, Fair A/E 1.02). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 15.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +7.54 to a £1 stake over 751 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 15 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 14.4pts below the 14.4% baseline). James Doyle rides 10% of the entries and edges the yard's average (18.4% vs 14.4%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 62 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket (Apr 2016, £283,550). The stable star of the record: Gifted Master (IRE) — 11 wins from 32 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

15.8%+1.4

n=751 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +7.54

New recruits · first run for the yard

20%+5.6

n=70 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +25.98

Debutants · first career start

12.1%−2.3

n=677 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −86.81

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.2%−3.2

n=454 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −73.05

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.4%−5.0

n=64 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −34.92

When favourite

37.1%

n=784 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −63.23

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11%−3.4

n=638 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −118.60

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10%−4.4

n=617 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −148.82

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Oisin Murphy 24.8% vs 14.4% · n=270

With Noel Garbutt 5.1% vs 14.4% · n=79

At Salisbury 23.5% vs 14.4% · n=68

At Carlisle 24% vs 14.4% · n=50

At Ascot 7.5% vs 14.4% · n=214

At Hamilton 23.3% vs 14.4% · n=60

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 5,500 791 14.4% −847.34

NH Flat 6 2 33.3% +14.25

Hurdle 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,932 306 15.8% −237.71

Good 1,187 159 13.4% −210.78

Good to Firm 1,117 146 13.1% −249.80

Good to Soft 660 94 14.2% −75.09

Soft 466 68 14.6% −52.63

Heavy 131 16 12.2% −16.83

Firm 18 4 22.2% +4.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 484 73 15.1% −68.36

Wolverhampton (AW) 426 81 19% +37.57

Chester 324 53 16.4% −19.14

Newcastle (AW) 321 52 16.2% −27.58

Chelmsford (AW) 280 40 14.3% −107.17

Newmarket 275 25 9.1% −49.68

Lingfield (AW) 257 37 14.4% −23.33

Haydock 245 41 16.7% +58.31

Newmarket 231 28 12.1% −73.34

Ascot 214 16 7.5% −110.71

Doncaster 196 27 13.8% −22.08

Windsor 173 25 14.5% −37.06

Newbury 169 16 9.5% −46.78

York 169 13 7.7% +4.83

Goodwood 157 15 9.6% −40.80

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,747 299 17.1% −163.62

Class 4 1,402 215 15.3% −227.74

Class 2 790 78 9.9% −199.45

Class 1 617 62 10% −148.82

Class 3 573 90 15.7% −38.94

Class 6 365 48 13.2% −50.02

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 879 316 35.9% 1.10 −58.38

2nd–3rd fav 1,578 285 18.1% 1.05 −142.01

4th–6th fav 1,755 152 8.7% 1.07 −173.70

7th+ in betting 1,299 40 3.1% 0.86 −464.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 2,382 330 13.9% −491.89

1m – 1m1f 1,422 213 15% −120.66

1m2f – 1m4f 1,175 176 15% −161.64

Under 6f 290 43 14.8% −49.66

1m5f – 2m 215 29 13.5% −2.74

2m1f – 2m4f 25 2 8% −9.50

2m5f – 3m 2 0 0% −2.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2011 55 7 12.7% −2.72

2012 91 6 6.6% −15.50

2013 114 15 13.2% +11.57

2014 149 24 16.1% +3.93

2015 204 38 18.6% +6.54

2016 358 73 20.4% +7.48

2017 502 77 15.3% −134.71

2018 516 89 17.2% +18.95

2019 389 53 13.6% −111.82

2020 285 55 19.3% −15.68

2021 338 56 16.6% −81.63

2022 430 44 10.2% −187.29

2023 492 58 11.8% −78.43

2024 550 76 13.8% +5.19

2025 510 70 13.7% −8.59

2026 528 52 9.8% −255.38

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,875 376 13.1% −435.68

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,079 309 14.9% −335.17

11-13 runners 1,416 175 12.4% −195.28

5-7 runners 1,189 222 18.7% −78.34

14-16 runners 417 38 9.1% −115.86

17+ runners 316 15 4.7% −131.42

2-4 runners 94 34 36.2% +17.98

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

How Impressive (IRE) 60 8 22 12 Aug 26

He's A Gentleman (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 54 6 23 2 Nov 26

Nolton Cross (IRE) 41 6 14 5 Nov 26

Roman Dragon (GB)from Tom Dascombe 39 6 12 11 Sep 26

Kindest Nation (IRE) 33 4 12 20 Oct 26

Gifted Master (IRE) 32 11 14 16 Jun 20

Box To Box (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 30 6 14 29 Oct 26

Power Of States (IRE)then Michael Appleby 30 6 12 12 Jul 22

Balon D'or (GB)then Simon Dow 29 3 7 20 Sep 25

Grey Cuban (GB) 28 7 13 31 Oct 26

Zivaniya (GB) 28 3 6 18 Nov 25

Lovely Breeze (IRE) 26 4 12 9 Oct 22

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 746 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Dascombe (6); 51 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for David O'Meara (3); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 15 0% · −14.4pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

Lifetime base14.4%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

212012161314151515121315

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJames Doyle

10% of all rides
18.4% SR · A/E 1.11

RiderRWSR£1

James Doyle 548 101 18.4% −117.51

Josephine Gordon 404 69 17.1% −1.44

Oisin Murphy 270 67 24.8% +25.76

Jack Mitchell 218 37 17% −33.04

Ben Curtis 200 39 19.5% −35.33

Harry Davies 195 19 9.7% −49.67

Jason Hart 194 32 16.5% −14.35

David Probert 178 21 11.8% +44.39

Ross Coakley 168 27 16.1% +8.74

Cieren Fallon 133 14 10.5% −76.92

Jim Crowley 123 24 19.5% −5.49

Tom Marquand 103 7 6.8% −71.67

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

793

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£16.1m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 89 wins

Galileo Gold (GB) — Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Newmarket · Apr 2016 · Group 1

£283,550

Gifted Master (IRE) — 500,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy Newmarket · Oct 2015 · Class 2

£270,550

Covert Love (IRE) — Darley Irish Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) Curragh · Jul 2015 · Group 1

£232,000

Notable horses

Gifted Master (IRE) How Impressive (IRE) Grey Cuban (GB) Home Of The Brave (IRE) He's A Gentleman (IRE) Nolton Cross (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 16.5% · 51–309

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Dark Angel (IRE) 12.9% · 27–210

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,954 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Zoffany (IRE) 14.9% · 25–168

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,784 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 15.3% · 22–144

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,230 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,199.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 16.9% · 22–130

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,237 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 961.

Mehmas (IRE) 16.2% · 19–117

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,241 runs since 2020 (755 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,511 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,511 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 April 2011 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Ring Of Music (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 100/30

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Nariko (IRE)J: Oisin Orr Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 16th 125/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Rubyroo (IRE)J: Rowan Scott AWC Season 14 Has Begun Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 2nd 18/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Nascent Star (GB)J: Kevin Stott AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 9/2

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Californian Angel (GB)J: Jason Watson AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 13/2

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Nolton Cross (IRE)J: David Probert Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 5/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Cabeceo (IRE)J: David Probert British EBF Future Stayers Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 7th 12/1

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Condotti (IRE)J: Donagh Murphy racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 2nd 11/1

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) He's A Gentleman (IRE)J: Clifford Lee All Weather Championship Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 10/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Grey Cuban (GB)J: David Probert German Group One Racecourses James Seymour Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 10f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 13/2

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Trapped Goddess (GER)J: David Probert British Stallion Studs Ebf Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 80/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Twelve Bars (IRE)J: David Probert Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 13th 22/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Zirconic (GB)J: Kevin Stott Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 2nd 12/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Baysline (IRE)J: David Probert German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool British Ebf Novice Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only) (Div II)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 15/2

29 Oct 26 Bath Box To Box (IRE)J: David Probert Thank You To Our Loyal Annual Members Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 12 ran 2nd 9/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Divine Symmetry (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Unibet's New Var Goal Guarantee Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 2nd 11/8F

26 Oct 26 Leicester Tidal Force (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Christmas Parties At Leicester Racecourse - Book Now Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Soft · 12 ran 12th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Charmed Boy (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 11/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ring Of Music (IRE)J: Callum Rodriguez AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 5/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Fans Favourite (GB)J: Cieren Fallon William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 18th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 8 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 11 runs (won 2) · fastest on KTB Speed in 6 runs (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Hugo Palmer's strike rate?: Hugo Palmer has won 793 of 5,511 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.4% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Hugo Palmer do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 81 wins from 426 runners (19%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Hugo Palmer?: James Doyle, with 548 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 101 (18.4%).
Is Hugo Palmer in form?: In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 14.4% since 2008.
What is Hugo Palmer's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 5,476 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.