Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 70 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98).
Deterministic profile computed from 662 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance36% when favouriteIan Mongan: 12.4% from 145Claiming riders: 9.8%Sent off the favourite in 8% of races
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.9% (n=186, Fair A/E 0.72). Ian Mongan rode 22% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.4% vs 9.2%, A/E 1.25) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well off a 8-14-day break (16.3%, n=43) and off a 15-30-day break (13.4%, n=187). The record read poorly on Good going — 0% over 59 runners, 9.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.73 across 141 runners (6.4% strike, −81.34 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The stable star of the record was Patavium Prince (IRE) — 6 wins from 48 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.9%−3.3
n=186 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −105.34
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.8%−4.4
n=21 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
6.8%−2.4
n=44 · A/E 1.70 · £1 +4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−9.2
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
8.3%−0.9
n=12 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −3.50
When favourite
36%
n=50 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +5.78
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.8%+0.6
n=51 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +26.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.2
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going0% vs 9.2% · n=59
Off a 8-14-day break16.3% vs 9.2% · n=43
Off a 15-30-day break13.4% vs 9.2% · n=187
Off a break of 180+ days4.4% vs 9.2% · n=45
With Ian Mongan12.4% vs 9.2% · n=145
Off a 61-180-day break6.4% vs 9.2% · n=141
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat659609.1%−110.64
NH Flat3133.3%+4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4534710.4%+24.11
Good to Firm8766.9%−40.00
Good5900%−59.00
Good to Soft25416%−5.50
Soft20210%−14.00
Firm16212.5%−10.25
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW)2252410.7%+25.43
Lingfield (AW)1952211.3%+24.18
Brighton36411.1%−13.75
Bath2314.3%−19.50
Salisbury2300%−23.00
Newbury2200%−22.00
Lingfield2129.5%−11.00
Windsor2129.5%−2.50
Wolverhampton (AW)1800%−18.00
Sandown1218.3%−4.00
Chelmsford (AW)1218.3%−4.50
Chepstow1000%−10.00
Goodwood9222.2%−3.00
Ffos Las700%−7.00
Newmarket400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 52933110.6%−106.40
Class 6189157.9%+24.68
Class 4140139.3%−0.92
Class 32613.8%−18.50
Class 1500%−5.00
Class 75120%+3.50
Class 2400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite591830.5%1.15−3.22
2nd–3rd fav1281914.8%0.99−23.42
4th–6th fav230177.4%0.91−69.00
7th+ in betting24572.9%0.79−11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f304268.6%−14.89
1m – 1m1f164169.8%−7.75
1m2f – 1m4f158138.2%−74.75
Under 6f20420%−2.75
1m5f – 2m16212.5%−6.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20087456.8%−40.00
20097679.2%−30.25
20101021312.7%+110.58
20111131210.6%+10.60
20129399.7%−34.05
201368710.3%−39.02
20147245.6%−40.00
20155547.3%−35.50
2016900%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps495418.3%−172.42
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners256176.6%+57.33
8-10 runners2102511.9%−53.63
5-7 runners1001818%−19.34
14-16 runners8711.1%−82.00
17+ runners800%−8.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 69 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J S Bolger (3) and Amanda Perrett (2); 38 had their first archived run for this yard.
18 have since run for another yard, most often for Laura Mongan (5) and Mark Shears (2); 42 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
2042344867125119
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
62
Archived wins
£294k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 13 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,793 runs since 2008 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Soviet Star (USA)7.4% · 2–27
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,621 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 160. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 320.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 675 · newest first
The latest 50 of 675 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 September 2007 to 18 March 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Jo Crowley's strike rate?
Jo Crowley has won 61 of 662 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jo Crowley do best at?
Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 22 wins from 195 runners (11.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Jo Crowley?
Ian Mongan, with 145 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.4%).
What is Jo Crowley's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 656 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Jo Crowley·SR 9.2%·A/E 0.98
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