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Trainer profile

Kieran P Cotter

1,157 runners in the lifetime window · 192 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 8 days ago 97% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
91–1,157
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=1,157
244 (21%)
Placed
1.10
Fair A/E
n=1,155 · 0.88 incl. margin
−346.10
£1 level stake
n=1,157 at SP · −29.9%
£1.51m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 10% (68 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,157 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 30% when favourite Declan McDonogh: 14% from 200 Headgear returns: 10.3% Claiming riders: 8.6% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races
The read

It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 35 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 4.3% (n=141, Fair A/E 1.07). Declan McDonogh rides 17% of the entries and beats the yard's average (14% vs 7.9%, A/E 1.42) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (12.7%, n=378). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes at Newmarket (Oct 2023, £70,888). The stable star of the record: Polly Douglas (IRE) — 7 wins from 59 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.6%−0.3
n=184 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −43.17
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.1%−1.8
n=49 · A/E 1.02 · £1 +5.00
Debutants · first career start
4.3%−3.6
n=141 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −79.75
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.9%−3.0
n=81 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.3%+2.4
n=68 · A/E 1.46 · £1 −14.67
When favourite
30%
n=60 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +4.99
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.6%+0.7
n=397 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −69.09
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.8%+1.9
n=41 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −0.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 18.8% vs 7.9% · n=85
With Colin Keane 16.1% vs 7.9% · n=62
With Declan McDonogh 14% vs 7.9% · n=200
With Gavin Ryan 0% vs 7.9% · n=38
At trips under 6f 12.7% vs 7.9% · n=378
At Gowran Park 0% vs 7.9% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 1,126 90 8% −323.10
Hurdle 21 1 4.8% −13.00
Chase 6 0 0% −6.00
NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 336 30 8.9% −67.89
Soft 319 23 7.2% −109.42
Good 265 21 7.9% −65.17
Heavy 81 6 7.4% −38.25
Good to Soft 77 6 7.8% −22.67
Good to Firm 76 5 6.6% −39.70
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 325 29 8.9% −63.39
Curragh 188 9 4.8% −86.00
Navan 102 12 11.8% −3.75
Naas 100 6 6% −61.50
Cork 93 6 6.5% −12.50
Tipperary 51 6 11.8% +13.05
Gowran Park 35 0 0% −35.00
Down Royal 34 4 11.8% −0.67
Fairyhouse 32 2 6.3% −11.50
Leopardstown 29 1 3.4% −19.00
Bellewstown 26 4 15.4% −12.67
Galway 22 1 4.5% −14.00
Limerick 21 1 4.8% −15.50
Sligo 17 1 5.9% −2.00
Roscommon 16 1 6.3% −10.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 41 4 9.8% −0.67
Class 6 11 2 18.2% −0.50
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 82 21 25.6% 1.20 −1.51
2nd–3rd fav 191 30 15.7% 1.10 −25.59
4th–6th fav 283 27 9.5% 1.26 +21.00
7th+ in betting 601 13 2.2% 0.79 −340.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Polly Douglas (IRE)then J H Scott 59 7 17 27 Aug 20
Dash D'or (IRE)then J H Scott 37 5 10 9 Aug 20
Fridtjof Nansen (GB)from John M Oxx 34 1 13 24 Sep 21
Sam's Xpress (IRE)then Julia & Shelley Birkett 29 3 4 20 May 25
St George's Head (IRE) 28 2 7 9 Jun 21
Uncle Albert (IRE)then Adrian Wintle 21 1 3 22 Apr 26
Martinelli (IRE) 20 2 7 4 Aug 25
Coughlans Locke (IRE) 20 1 4 26 Nov 10
Matilda Picotte (IRE) 18 4 10 6 Oct 24
Dun Na Sead (IRE)then Daniel James Murphy 18 4 8 3 Sep 23
Inflection Point (IRE)from G M Lyons · then Adrian McGuinness 18 3 7 6 Oct 21
Sturlasson (IRE)then John Ryan 17 1 4 13 Jun 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 192 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Peter Fahey (2); 48 had their first archived run for this yard.

31 have since run for another yard, most often for Daniel James Murphy (4) and Adrian Wintle (3); 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
9101061178388133
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDeclan McDonogh
17% of all rides
14% SR · A/E 1.42
RiderRWSR£1
Declan McDonogh 200 28 14% +12.19
R. P. Whelan 63 1 1.6% −51.00
Colin Keane 62 10 16.1% −1.75
Conor Hoban 54 2 3.7% −36.00
Mark Gallagher 51 1 2% −36.00
Shane Foley 39 5 12.8% +15.75
Gavin Ryan 38 0 0% −38.00
Leigh Roche 36 2 5.6% +19.00
Nathan Crosse 36 3 8.3% −3.50
Oisin McSweeney 35 4 11.4% +0.16
R. P. Cleary 33 1 3% −20.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
92
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£1.52m
Prize money
2020
Best season · 19 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Matilda Picotte (IRE) — Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Newmarket · Oct 2023 · Group 2
£70,888
Lord Dudley (IRE) — Mallow Handicap Cork · May 2022
£47,200
Matilda Picotte (IRE) — Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Group 3) Doncaster · Sep 2023 · Group 3
£45,368
Notable horses
Polly Douglas (IRE) A Step Too Far (IRE) Dash D'or (IRE) Matilda Picotte (IRE) Dun Na Sead (IRE) Pulse Of Shanghai (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Le Cadre Noir (IRE) 12.8% · 15–117
Progeny have won 7.8% of 397 runs since 2014 (22 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.9% from 168.
Dragon Pulse (IRE) 14.7% · 11–75
Progeny have won 8.9% of 4,272 runs since 2016 (320 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.3% from 572. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 363.
Kyllachy (GB) 2.9% · 1–34
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Sioux Nation (USA) 16.7% · 5–30
Progeny have won 12.3% of 2,910 runs since 2022 (361 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 17.2% from 425. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.2% from 580. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.7% from 190.
Fulbright (GB) 10.3% · 3–29
Progeny have won 6.7% of 629 runs since 2019 (52 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 9.8% from 215.
Slade Power (IRE) 10.3% · 3–29
Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,942 runs since 2018 (208 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.3% from 127.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,194 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,194 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 April 2005 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Danpaddyandy (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 11th 80/1
21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Lion Of Fortune (IRE)J: R. P. Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Yielding · 10 ran 10th 66/1
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Shake It Out (GB)J: Gavin Ryan 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 13th 7/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Alandownunder (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 66/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Spinola Bear (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 25/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Boptothetop (IRE)J: R. P. Cleary Boyle Maiden10.5f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 100/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Earl Of Persia (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 125/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Imagine Glory (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 100/1
07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Siege Of Tyre (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Navan Racing Festival Hospitality On Sale Now Nursery Handicap6f · Yielding · 10 ran 8th 11/1
07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Kula Bula Boyo (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Buy Now & Save With The Real Deal Bundle Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 9th 150/1
05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Spinola Bear (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Carry Out Off-Licence Handicap8f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 28/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Nathan Crosse Business Plus Handicap6f · Soft · 22 ran 16th 14/1
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Alandownunder (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 7th 40/1
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Lion Of Fortune (IRE)J: R. P. Whelan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 7th 14/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Nathan Crosse Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap5f · Yielding · 20 ran 4th 40/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Shake It Out (GB)J: R. P. Whelan Market Square Monasterevin Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 50/1
17 Sep 26 Naas (IRE) Stellar Path (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap5f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 18/1
17 Sep 26 Naas (IRE) Siege Of Tyre (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Colm White Bookmakers Nursery Handicap5f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 25/1
13 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Sommelier (GB)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap6f · Yielding · 24 ran 19th 100/1
09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Faithful Ardad (GB)J: Ronan Whelan Follow Us On Social Media Maiden8f · Good · 18 ran 13th 125/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 20 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 20 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Kieran P Cotter's strike rate?
Kieran P Cotter has won 91 of 1,157 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kieran P Cotter do best at?
Navan by strike rate: 12 wins from 102 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kieran P Cotter?
Declan McDonogh, with 200 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 28 (14%).
Is Kieran P Cotter in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kieran P Cotter's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 1,155 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).