What is Paul Morgan's strike rate?

Paul Morgan has won 21 of 173 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

What is Paul Morgan's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 173 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Morgan

173 runners in the lifetime window · 47 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2018

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

21–173

Wins / Runs

12.1%

Strike rate

n=173

50 (29%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=173 · 0.91 incl. margin

−58.26

£1 level stake

n=173 at SP · −33.7%

£146k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07).

Deterministic profile computed from 173 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.8% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.45). The yard also read well in Chase races (26.8%, n=41) and on Soft going (19.4%, n=31). The record read poorly in Flat races — 0% over 43 runners, 12.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Conas Taoi (IRE) — 7 wins from 17 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.8%−7.3

n=42 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −34.77

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−12.1

n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00

Debutants · first career start

21.1%+9.0

n=19 · A/E 2.82 · £1 +17.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.3%−3.8

n=12 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −9.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

16.7%+4.6

n=6 · A/E 2.38 · £1 +7.00

When favourite

52.4%

n=21 · A/E 1.70 · £1 +13.36

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.9%−3.2

n=45 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −7.38

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−12.1

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Chase races 26.8% vs 12.1% · n=41

In Flat races 0% vs 12.1% · n=43

On Standard (AW) going 0% vs 12.1% · n=36

With Denis O'Regan 20% vs 12.1% · n=30

On Soft going 19.4% vs 12.1% · n=31

Off a 31-60-day break 5.4% vs 12.1% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 70 6 8.6% −37.97

Flat 43 0 0% −43.00

Chase 41 11 26.8% +5.71

NH Flat 19 4 21.1% +17.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 51 6 11.8% −25.39

Standard (AW) 36 0 0% −36.00

Soft 31 6 19.4% −10.45

Good to Soft 29 5 17.2% +19.08

Good to Firm 12 2 16.7% −5.12

Heavy 12 2 16.7% +1.62

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ffos Las 29 5 17.2% −1.08

Wolverhampton (AW) 20 0 0% −20.00

Chepstow 15 3 20% −0.77

Newton Abbot 13 2 15.4% +2.75

Lingfield 8 0 0% −8.00

Bangor-on-Dee 8 1 12.5% +0.00

Warwick 7 3 42.9% +3.21

Newbury 6 0 0% −6.00

Worcester 6 1 16.7% −2.75

Stratford 6 0 0% −6.00

Towcester 5 2 40% +1.88

Wetherby 5 0 0% −5.00

Sandown 5 2 40% +8.75

Kempton (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Uttoxeter 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 58 7 12.1% −18.75

Class 5 50 5 10% −26.39

Class 6 34 4 11.8% +2.00

Class 3 19 5 26.3% −3.12

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 25 13 52% 1.75 +16.11

2nd–3rd fav 39 4 10.3% 0.59 −17.37

4th–6th fav 52 4 7.7% 1.00 +0.00

7th+ in betting 57 0 0% 0.00 −57.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.3% completed · 111 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 41 82.9% 0 1 6 0 0

Hurdle 70 91.4% 0 0 6 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Conas Taoi (IRE)then Christian Williams 17 7 10 31 Dec 16

Potters Corner (IRE)then Christian Williams 11 3 8 18 Jan 17

Relkwood (IRE)then Daragh Bourke 11 1 1 5 Oct 16

Court Frontier (IRE)from Alan Fleming · then Christian Williams 8 3 4 18 Mar 17

Thomas Junior (FR)from David Pipe · then Phil York 8 1 1 4 Jun 15

Winning Ticket (IRE)then Nigel Twiston-Davies 7 0 2 16 Sep 16

Verygoodverygood (FR)from Nicky Henderson · then Nigel Twiston-Davies 7 0 4 16 Sep 16

Limited Reserve (IRE)from P M J Doyle · then Christian Williams 6 2 2 12 Dec 16

Angel Face (GB)from Alan King 6 0 4 6 Nov 16

Edgware Road (GB)from Sean Curran · then Sean Curran 6 0 1 7 Mar 14

Gask Ridge (IRE)then Christian Williams 5 0 1 1 Mar 17

Macs Scwar (GB)from Bernard Llewellyn 5 0 0 9 Dec 14

All 47 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 47 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sean Curran (5) and Nicky Henderson (3); 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

33 have since run for another yard, most often for Christian Williams (10) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (3); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

14011115290043132016

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom O'Brien

19% of all rides
18.2% SR · A/E 1.16

RiderRWSR£1

Tom O'Brien 33 6 18.2% −10.39

Denis O'Regan 30 6 20% +0.68

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

£146k

Prize money

2016

Best season · 9 wins

Court Frontier (IRE) — 188bet Cambridgeshire National Handicap Chase Huntingdon · Mar 2017 · Class 3

£16,245

Conas Taoi (IRE) — Coldunell Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase (For The John Dunsdon Memorial Cup) Sandown · Dec 2015 · Class 3

£9,029

Court Frontier (IRE) — Premier League Betting At 188Bet Handicap Hurdle Warwick · Jan 2017 · Class 3

£6,498

Notable horses

Conas Taoi (IRE) Potters Corner (IRE) Court Frontier (IRE) Limited Reserve (IRE) Relkwood (IRE) Thomas Junior (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Court Cave (IRE) 35.3% · 6–17

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,921 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.

Exit To Nowhere (USA) 41.2% · 7–17

Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,787 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 155.

Beneficial (GB) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 10.5% of 17,043 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Indian Danehill (IRE) 27.3% · 3–11

Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,742 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.9% from 143.

Dylan Thomas (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,486 runs since 2008 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.

Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 173 · newest first

The latest 50 of 173 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 November 2013 to 27 April 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Apr 18 Chepstow Tomoroz Man (IRE)J: Rex Dingle Dunraven Bowl Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 11 ran PU 66/1

25 Mar 17 Newbury Tekiblue de L'Orme (FR)J: Tom Scudamore Goffs UK Spring Sales Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 18th 50/1

25 Mar 17 Newbury Blue Kangaroo (FR)J: A P Heskin Goffs UK Spring Sales Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 16th 33/1

18 Mar 17 Uttoxeter The Welsh Paddies (IRE)J: Denis O'Regan Betfred 'Follow Us On Twitter' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 6/1

18 Mar 17 Uttoxeter Court Frontier (IRE)J: Denis O'Regan Betfred Midlands Grand National (Listed Handicap Chase)Class 1 · 33.5f · Soft · 20 ran PU 10/1

05 Mar 17 Huntingdon Court Frontier (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien 188bet Cambridgeshire National Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 30.5f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 11/4

01 Mar 17 Ffos Las Luckofthedraw (FR)J: William Twiston-Davies J Edward Sellars Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 6/1

01 Mar 17 Ffos Las Paddys Motorbike (IRE)J: Davy Russell Roa/racing Post Owners' Jackpot Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 7 ran 2nd 4/1

01 Mar 17 Ffos Las West Wizard (FR)J: Davy Russell PT Civil Engineering Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 2nd 3/1

01 Mar 17 Ffos Las Gask Ridge (IRE)J: Davy Russell Hugh James Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 7 ran 3rd 20/1

11 Feb 17 Newbury The Welsh Paddies (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Betfair Ready? Bumper (Listed Standard Open NH Flat Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 33/1

04 Feb 17 Wetherby West Wizard (FR)J: Tom O'Brien Totescoop6 The Millionaire Maker Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 19.5f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 5/2F

26 Jan 17 Warwick Court Frontier (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Premier League Betting At 188Bet Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 26f · Soft · 12 ran 1st 2/1F

23 Jan 17 Bangor-on-Dee African Gold (IRE)J: Harry Cobden Stella Artois Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 3/1

20 Jan 17 Chepstow Court Frontier (IRE)J: Denis O'Regan 188bet.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 9/2F

18 Jan 17 Newbury Potters Corner (IRE)J: Davy Russell Betfred 'treble Odds On All Lucky 15's' (for The Harwell Trophy) Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 23.5f · Soft · 13 ran 2nd 5/4F

18 Jan 17 Newbury Gask Ridge (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Betfred 'goals Galore' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 150/1

31 Dec 16 Newbury Conas Taoi (IRE)J: Davy Russell Betfred Mandarin Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 26f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 6/1

21 Dec 16 Ffos Las Gask Ridge (IRE)J: Davy Russell Davies Chemists 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 13 ran 10th 10/1

21 Dec 16 Ffos Las Paddys Motorbike (IRE)J: Davy Russell Finning Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 22f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Morgan's strike rate?: Paul Morgan has won 21 of 173 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Morgan's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 173 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.