What is Seamus Fahey's strike rate?

Seamus Fahey has won 76 of 1,876 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Seamus Fahey do best at?

Kilbeggan by strike rate: 7 wins from 79 runners (8.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Seamus Fahey?

Shane Butler, with 334 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (4.8%).

Is Seamus Fahey in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Seamus Fahey's Fair A/E?

0.74, from 1,875 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Seamus Fahey

1,876 runners in the lifetime window · 217 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

76–1,876

Wins / Runs

4.1%

Strike rate

n=1,876

313 (17%)

Placed

0.74

Fair A/E

n=1,875 · 0.58 incl. margin

−1,027.50

£1 level stake

n=1,876 at SP · −54.8%

£1.16m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 100 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.74). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 6% (89 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,876 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 11.3% when favourite Shane Butler: 4.8% from 334 Sends off the favourite in 3% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Kilbeggan (8.9%, n=79) and Clonmel (8.1%, n=74) — all clear of the yard's 4.1% baseline. It is weakest at Punchestown (0% over 79 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=128, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −195.50 to a £1 stake over 372 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Shane Butler rides 18% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.8%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown (Dec 2008, £108,600). The stable star of the record: Wheresben (IRE) — 9 wins from 37 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.7%−1.4

n=372 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −195.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

1.7%−2.4

n=60 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −52.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−4.1

n=128 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −128.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

1.3%−2.8

n=75 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −58.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.6%+1.5

n=89 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −29.00

When favourite

11.3%

n=53 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −30.25

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.9%−0.2

n=1,279 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −678.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.7%+0.6

n=43 · A/E 0.71 · £1 +2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 9.2% vs 4.1% · n=87

At Kilbeggan 8.9% vs 4.1% · n=79

With debutants 0% vs 4.1% · n=128

At Punchestown 0% vs 4.1% · n=79

With Benjamin P Kennedy 0% vs 4.1% · n=73

At Clonmel 8.1% vs 4.1% · n=74

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 26.8% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 905 36 4% −545.87

Flat 768 30 3.9% −414.13

Chase 117 7 6% −8.50

NH Flat 86 3 3.5% −59.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 579 30 5.2% −254.25

Good 440 12 2.7% −255.00

Heavy 298 14 4.7% −162.00

Standard (AW) 218 6 2.8% −150.00

Good to Soft 165 8 4.8% −88.00

Good to Firm 155 5 3.2% −106.25

Firm 21 1 4.8% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 160 2 1.3% −128.50

Gowran Park 120 6 5% −23.00

Tramore 103 5 4.9% −46.50

Limerick 99 4 4% −45.00

Cork 91 3 3.3% −73.00

Fairyhouse 88 2 2.3% −70.62

Sligo 84 4 4.8% −53.25

Kilbeggan 79 7 8.9% −3.00

Punchestown 79 0 0% −79.00

Clonmel 74 6 8.1% −19.00

Down Royal 74 4 5.4% −23.00

Ballinrobe 73 4 5.5% −41.00

Navan 71 4 5.6% −37.38

Naas 70 1 1.4% −64.50

Roscommon 69 3 4.3% −56.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 42 3 7.1% −18.50

Class 1 36 1 2.8% −2.00

Class 5 10 0 0% −10.00

Class 7 6 1 16.7% +7.00

Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 67 7 10.4% 0.51 −39.75

2nd–3rd fav 174 21 12.1% 0.92 −56.25

4th–6th fav 444 27 6.1% 0.87 −140.50

7th+ in betting 1,191 21 1.8% 0.60 −791.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 660 32 4.8% −340.75

2m1f – 2m4f 417 18 4.3% −231.50

1m – 1m1f 277 9 3.2% −125.00

1m2f – 1m4f 206 9 4.4% −102.25

6f – 7f 175 5 2.9% −138.00

2m5f – 3m 111 3 2.7% −60.00

Under 6f 18 0 0% −18.00

Over 3m 12 0 0% −12.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 209 8 3.8% −87.00

2009 161 5 3.1% −115.00

2010 142 5 3.5% −113.25

2011 124 12 9.7% −3.00

2012 109 3 2.8% −82.12

2013 91 2 2.2% −69.00

2014 95 6 6.3% −21.38

2015 108 7 6.5% −35.50

2016 107 3 2.8% −82.00

2017 93 7 7.5% −11.50

2018 93 2 2.2% −78.75

2019 86 2 2.3% −64.00

2020 51 2 3.9% −37.00

2021 112 6 5.4% −1.50

2022 57 1 1.8% −36.00

2023 91 3 3.3% −70.00

2024 64 0 0% −64.00

2025 59 1 1.7% −38.00

2026 24 1 4.2% −18.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,123 58 5.2% −450.88

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 701 25 3.6% −387.62

11-13 runners 467 17 3.6% −253.50

17+ runners 356 14 3.9% −190.63

8-10 runners 260 13 5% −158.00

5-7 runners 90 6 6.7% −39.25

2-4 runners 2 1 50% +1.50

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fast On (IRE)from Ed McMahon 57 2 14 8 May 19

Hazariban (IRE) 56 6 14 7 Dec 17

Hidden Crack (GB) 51 5 12 13 Apr 14

Beat Of The Sea (IRE)from E Sheehy 50 2 7 7 Aug 23

Jazz Dreamers (IRE) 48 3 11 16 Oct 26

Tawrific Laois (IRE) 42 1 8 15 Jul 12

Sinbad My Dad (IRE) 38 2 6 7 Nov 26

Black Ice (IRE)then John James Feane 37 2 5 6 Apr 17

Gold Tantrum (IRE) 37 2 10 15 May 15

Tinas Exhibition (IRE) 34 1 5 8 Feb 13

Randalls Ur Poet (IRE) 32 0 11 4 Jan 20

Randall's Alannah (IRE) 31 1 4 13 Dec 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 217 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Loughnane (2); 41 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard, most often for John James Feane (2); 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

372724373427

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderShane Butler

18% of all rides
4.8% SR · A/E 0.97

RiderRWSR£1

Shane Butler 334 16 4.8% −156.75

Shane Foley 113 8 7.1% −34.88

Benjamin P Kennedy 73 0 0% −73.00

Mr J A Fahey 70 4 5.7% −15.50

Kevin Sexton 62 5 8.1% +10.00

Michael Hussey 52 1 1.9% −48.50

Mark Bolger 51 1 2% −38.00

Conor Hoban 50 0 0% −50.00

Paddy Kennedy 47 3 6.4% −19.50

Ryan Treacy 32 1 3.1% −21.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

111

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.56m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 16 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Wheresben (IRE) — Paddy Power Handicap Chase Leopardstown · Dec 2008 · Grade B

£108,600

Wheresben (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Handicap Chase Navan · Mar 2008 · Grade C

£33,852

Wheresben (IRE) — Nolan & Brophy Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Naas · Mar 2007

£19,530

Notable horses

Wheresben (IRE) Hazariban (IRE) Hidden Crack (GB) Market Watcher (USA) Tawrific Laois (IRE) Marikhar (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Great Exhibition (USA) 6.2% · 7–113

Progeny have won 7.1% of 452 runs since 2009 (29 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.9% from 153.

High Chaparral (IRE) 1.7% · 1–60

Progeny have won 10.3% of 8,730 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 419.

Born To Sea (IRE) 3.4% · 2–59

Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,294 runs since 2016 (311 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 868. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.

Urban Poet (USA) 0% · 0–58

Progeny have won 5% of 520 runs since 2014 (38 horses).

Verglas (IRE) 3.5% · 2–57

Progeny have won 10.2% of 6,977 runs since 2008 (499 horses).

Kahyasi (IRE) 10.7% · 6–56

Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,120 runs since 2008 (185 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,535 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,535 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 January 2005 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Ben Kennedy GAIN Equine Nutrition Novice Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 4th 25/1

18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Christmas Festival Tickets On Sale Now Handicap10f · Good · 15 ran 5th 14/1

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Jessica O'Gorman Irishinjuredjockeys.com Apprentice Optional Claiming Race10.5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 200/1

04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Miss Georgie Benson Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap12f · Yielding · 12 ran 6th 7/2

28 Sep 26 Down Royal (IRE) Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Pravha Handicap (Div I)11f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 13th 80/1

16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Camida Winning Solution Handicap10f · Yielding · 14 ran 7th 50/1

16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Camida Gold Champion Handicap10f · Yielding · 9 ran 1st 9/2

04 Sep 26 Down Royal (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett Children's Heartbeat Trust Apprentice Handicap10.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 15/2

25 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Shane Foley Ploughman Bar & Grill Handicap (Div I)8f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 13th 12/1

23 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett Hartes Group Apprentice Handicap11f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 11/1

06 Aug 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett Renault Ireland Handicap9f · Good · 22 ran 9th 7/1

25 Jul 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Tote Apprentice Handicap9.5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 16/1

16 Jul 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett Mervue Equine Handicap10f · Good · 9 ran 4th 10/1

09 Jul 26 Leopardstown Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Mervue Equine Handicap (0-60)9f · Good · 22 ran 8th 50/1

30 Jun 26 Roscommon Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett Sean Cleary Memorial Handicap10.5f · Good · 13 ran 6th 28/1

28 Apr 26 Punchestown Eamon's Dream (IRE)J: Mr L P Shanahan Willie Coonan Memorial Flat Race16.5f · Yielding · 18 ran 12th 66/1

02 Apr 26 Clonmel Keiths Boy (IRE)J: Benjamin P Kennedy KEP Italia Handicap Hurdle16f · Soft · 13 ran UR 16/1

04 Mar 26 Naas Keiths Boy (IRE)J: Benjamin P Kennedy William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle19f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 8th 11/2

30 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Jazz Dreamers (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Follow Us On X At DundalkStadium Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 80/1

23 Jan 26 Dundalk (AW) Sinbad My Dad (IRE)J: Joseph Harnett Dundalk Winter Series Leading Trainer & Jockey Championship Handicap12f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 10/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Seamus Fahey's strike rate?: Seamus Fahey has won 76 of 1,876 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Seamus Fahey do best at?: Kilbeggan by strike rate: 7 wins from 79 runners (8.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Seamus Fahey?: Shane Butler, with 334 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (4.8%).
Is Seamus Fahey in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Seamus Fahey's Fair A/E?: 0.74, from 1,875 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.