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Trainer profile

Adam Nicol

518 runners in the lifetime window · 56 individual horses
As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
56–518
Wins / Runs
10.8%
Strike rate
n=518
146 (28%)
Placed
0.99
Fair A/E
n=514 · 0.85 incl. margin
−181.62
£1 level stake
n=518 at SP · −35.1%
£668k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
13.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). With a claiming rider up the record reads 14% (118 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 518 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–May 31.8% when favourite Ryan Mania: 17% from 88 Claiming riders: 14.4% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Hexham (20%, n=30), clear of the yard's 10.8% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 14.4% (n=118, Fair A/E 1.18), but new recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 4.3% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.46). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −10.40 to a £1 stake over 101 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 15 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 10.8pts below the 10.8% baseline). Ryan Mania rides 17% of the entries and beats the yard's average (17% vs 10.8%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (17.9%, n=112). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.5% over 40 runners, 8.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.43 across 83 runners (3.6% strike, −66.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the tote Summer World Pool Queen's Cup at Musselburgh (Apr 2023, £51,540). The stable star of the record: Wise Eagle (IRE) — 13 wins from 48 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.9%−3.9
n=101 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −10.40
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.3%−6.5
n=46 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −30.90
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.8
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%+3.5
n=14 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +5.20
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.5%+1.7
n=40 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +5.00
When favourite
31.8%
n=66 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −11.14
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.4%+3.6
n=118 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −12.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
14.3%+3.5
n=7 · A/E 2.17 · £1 +2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Joshua Thompson 25% vs 10.8% · n=44
On last-time-out winners 23.6% vs 10.8% · n=55
On Good to Soft going 17.9% vs 10.8% · n=112
On Soft going 3.6% vs 10.8% · n=83
At Hexham 20% vs 10.8% · n=30
Off a break of 180+ days 2.5% vs 10.8% · n=40
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 89.9% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 282 30 10.6% −89.46
Flat 194 20 10.3% −73.43
Chase 32 5 15.6% −16.73
NH Flat 10 1 10% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 186 23 12.4% −30.63
Good to Soft 112 20 17.9% −7.19
Soft 83 3 3.6% −66.25
Standard (AW) 79 6 7.6% −31.92
Good to Firm 34 3 8.8% −27.13
Heavy 24 1 4.2% −18.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Musselburgh 73 12 16.4% −14.05
Newcastle (AW) 65 5 7.7% −25.92
Sedgefield 44 4 9.1% −25.55
Kelso 40 5 12.5% −8.17
Newcastle 40 5 12.5% −7.30
Perth 34 5 14.7% +23.62
Catterick 33 3 9.1% −26.88
Hexham 30 6 20% −11.35
Ayr 25 0 0% −25.00
Carlisle 19 2 10.5% −2.50
Hamilton 18 1 5.6% +1.00
Wetherby 17 1 5.9% −8.00
Pontefract 12 4 33.3% +6.75
Southwell (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00
Redcar 8 1 12.5% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 210 24 11.4% −36.57
Class 4 139 16 11.5% −82.76
Class 6 117 9 7.7% −53.17
Class 2 26 4 15.4% +1.00
Class 3 19 2 10.5% −12.12
Class 1 7 1 14.3% +2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 72 21 29.2% 0.95 −17.14
2nd–3rd fav 112 24 21.4% 1.30 +12.02
4th–6th fav 146 7 4.8% 0.62 −77.50
7th+ in betting 188 4 2.1% 0.83 −99.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Wise Eagle (IRE)from Tom Clover 48 13 25 1 Nov 26
Trailblazer (GB)from William Muir & Chris Grassick 39 2 13 8 Nov 25
Lady Phoebe (IRE) 35 3 8 6 Nov 26
National Question (IRE)from J S Bolger 31 5 10 27 Oct 26
Quercus Robur (GB)from Richard Fahey 26 5 12 4 Nov 26
Purple Gown (IRE)from J S Bolger 25 1 7 28 Nov 25
Foshan (IRE)from Harry Eustace 21 0 1 13 May 25
Agilulf (GB)from P De Chevigny 20 0 2 16 Feb 25
Benefit Ben (IRE)from Sandy Thomson 17 3 5 7 Nov 26
Tracker Issue (IRE)from J S Bolger 17 0 2 3 Nov 26
Snowrocco (IRE) 13 2 5 6 Nov 26
Economic Editor (IRE) 13 0 3 29 Mar 23
All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nigel Hawke (9) and J S Bolger (7); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell
0 from 15 0% · −10.8pts vs baseline
Last 14 days0%
Lifetime base10.8%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
13715191611141039511
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRyan Mania
17% of all rides
17% SR · A/E 1.11
RiderRWSR£1
Ryan Mania 88 15 17% −11.23
Joshua Thompson 44 11 25% +35.76
Cam Hardie 33 4 12.1% +9.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
56
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£668k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 19 wins
Wise Eagle (IRE) — tote Summer World Pool Queen's Cup (Heritage Handicap) Musselburgh · Apr 2023 · Class 2
£51,540
Minella Study (GB) — Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) Wetherby · Oct 2025 · Listed
£22,780
Speiriuil (IRE) — BetWright Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£20,812
Notable horses
Wise Eagle (IRE) National Question (IRE) Quercus Robur (GB) Feach Amach (IRE) Conquer The Breeze (IRE) Lady Phoebe (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Free Eagle (IRE) 27.1% · 13–48
Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,419 runs since 2019 (190 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.1% from 131.
Fracas (IRE) 26.1% · 12–46
Progeny have won 9.7% of 796 runs since 2012 (56 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13% from 100. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 119. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.7% from 106.
Teofilo (IRE) 2.2% · 1–45
Progeny have won 12.5% of 10,089 runs since 2011 (908 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7% from 626.
Dark Angel (IRE) 4.8% · 2–42
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Phoenix Of Spain (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35
Progeny have won 13.2% of 1,353 runs since 2023 (140 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.6% from 135. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.2% from 104.
Camelot (GB) 19.2% · 5–26
Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,741 runs since 2017 (765 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 518 · newest first

The latest 50 of 518 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 December 2020 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
07 Nov 26 Kelso Benefit Ben (IRE)J: Jack Power Graeme Todd Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 11th 10/1
07 Nov 26 Aintree Conquer The Breeze (IRE)J: Ryan Mania William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 25/1
06 Nov 26 Hexham Lady Phoebe (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Debra Corner Happy Birthday Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 23.5f · Good · 10 ran 4th 11/4F
06 Nov 26 Hexham Boy Aaron (IRE)J: Brian Hughes carpetgallop.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 15/8F
06 Nov 26 Hexham Snowrocco (IRE)J: Ryan Mania carpetgallop.co.uk Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 14/1
05 Nov 26 Newcastle Teofimo (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 18/1
04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Quercus Robur (GB)J: Cam Hardie Joe Fanning Fond Farewell Handicap StakesClass 6 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 10/1
04 Nov 26 Musselburgh Watcha Snoop (IRE)J: Cam Hardie Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 12.5f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 33/1
03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Tracker Issue (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Canine PREMIER FLEX Plus Joint Supplement Etc Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 8th 12/1
02 Nov 26 Southwell Our Girl Sal (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Festive Fixtures At Southwell Racecourse Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good · 8 ran F 100/30
02 Nov 26 Southwell Lady Northumbria (FR)J: Ryan Mania Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 12th 50/1
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Wise Eagle (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 5/1
31 Oct 26 Ayr Flaming Norman (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar Ebf 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 150/1
30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Mr Black Diamond (GB)J: Cam Hardie All-weather Championship Is Back Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 200/1
27 Oct 26 Newcastle National Question (IRE)J: Joshua Thompson High Gosforth Park Golf Club Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 8th 6/1
24 Oct 26 Kelso Travis Wheatley (IRE)J: Jack Power luckytiger.co.uk Bet 20 Get 20 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 8/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Lady Phoebe (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 1st 7/1
20 Oct 26 Hexham Conquer The Breeze (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 6th 9/2
20 Oct 26 Hexham Tracker Issue (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 10th 12/1
19 Oct 26 Pontefract Wise Eagle (IRE)J: Billy Garritty Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 5th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 19 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adam Nicol's strike rate?
Adam Nicol has won 56 of 518 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adam Nicol do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 6 wins from 30 runners (20%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adam Nicol?
Ryan Mania, with 88 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (17%).
Is Adam Nicol in form?
In the last 14 days: 15 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 10.8% since 2008.
What is Adam Nicol's Fair A/E?
0.99, from 514 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 9 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).