What is Alan Brown's strike rate?

Alan Brown has won 169 of 2,272 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Brown do best at?

Carlisle by strike rate: 8 wins from 65 runners (12.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Alan Brown?

Dale Swift, with 224 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (10.7%).

Is Alan Brown in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Alan Brown's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 2,255 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Alan Brown

2,272 runners in the lifetime window · 147 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 8 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

169–2,272

Wins / Runs

7.4%

Strike rate

n=2,272

501 (22%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=2,255 · 0.87 incl. margin

−641.70

£1 level stake

n=2,272 at SP · −28.2%

£1.08m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,272 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 29.3% when favourite Dale Swift: 10.7% from 224 New recruits: 8.5% Claiming riders: 8.7% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

It is weakest at Doncaster (0% over 53 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 1.5% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.73). A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run are the standout value angle: 8.5% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.34 and +83.40 to a £1 stake over 130 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Dale Swift rides 10% of the entries and edges the yard's average (10.7% vs 7.4%, A/E 1.40) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (15.7%, n=153). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 1.2% over 83 runners, 6.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.45 across 147 runners (2% strike, −72.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Meandmyshadow (GB) — 17 wins from 126 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.2%−3.2

n=285 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −60.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.5%+1.1

n=59 · A/E 1.72 · £1 +14.50

Debutants · first career start

1.5%−5.9

n=66 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −15.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5%−2.4

n=60 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −29.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.5%+1.1

n=130 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +83.40

When favourite

29.3%

n=99 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +4.04

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.7%+1.3

n=562 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −22.01

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.4

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Ryan Sexton 21.1% vs 7.4% · n=38

Off a 0-7-day break 15.7% vs 7.4% · n=153

On last-time-out winners 15.4% vs 7.4% · n=169

At Doncaster 0% vs 7.4% · n=53

In Class 3 1.2% vs 7.4% · n=83

In Hurdle races 2% vs 7.4% · n=147

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,009 156 7.8% −530.53

Hurdle 147 3 2% −72.00

Chase 90 10 11.1% −13.17

NH Flat 26 0 0% −26.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 991 85 8.6% −221.86

Good 421 19 4.5% −269.17

Good to Firm 369 25 6.8% −113.92

Good to Soft 247 19 7.7% −54.38

Soft 201 17 8.5% +32.13

Heavy 36 2 5.6% −24.50

Firm 7 2 28.6% +10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 406 39 9.6% −10.38

Southwell (AW) 311 26 8.4% −127.14

Wolverhampton (AW) 191 15 7.9% −37.17

Beverley 156 10 6.4% −69.42

Catterick 123 6 4.9% −73.50

Redcar 121 5 4.1% −86.00

Newcastle 91 5 5.5% −46.38

Thirsk 76 5 6.6% −44.00

Musselburgh 75 7 9.3% +22.50

Carlisle 65 8 12.3% +42.50

Hamilton 56 5 8.9% +32.00

Doncaster 53 0 0% −53.00

Wetherby 53 4 7.5% +41.00

Ripon 50 4 8% −20.50

Pontefract 48 3 6.3% −14.12

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 1,055 95 9% −185.40

Class 5 719 51 7.1% −194.76

Class 4 357 17 4.8% −162.92

Class 3 83 1 1.2% −78.50

Class 7 32 2 6.3% −12.00

Class 2 16 3 18.8% +1.88

Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 123 36 29.3% 1.23 +14.29

2nd–3rd fav 341 57 16.7% 1.11 −11.99

4th–6th fav 631 49 7.8% 1.00 −53.00

7th+ in betting 1,177 27 2.3% 0.75 −591.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 938 73 7.8% −231.94

Under 6f 438 38 8.7% −50.13

1m – 1m1f 342 24 7% −96.04

1m2f – 1m4f 252 18 7.1% −134.92

1m5f – 2m 104 5 4.8% −59.50

2m1f – 2m4f 99 3 3% −49.67

2m5f – 3m 79 8 10.1% +0.50

Over 3m 20 0 0% −20.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 193 13 6.7% −93.42

2009 170 11 6.5% −56.50

2010 150 9 6% −57.50

2011 119 9 7.6% −49.50

2012 111 9 8.1% −46.00

2013 124 10 8.1% −40.50

2014 129 3 2.3% −89.50

2015 116 8 6.9% −64.12

2016 90 8 8.9% +24.50

2017 89 4 4.5% −58.25

2018 67 5 7.5% −2.50

2019 36 1 2.8% −30.50

2020 34 2 5.9% +0.00

2021 67 4 6% +23.50

2022 130 15 11.5% −9.97

2023 171 27 15.8% +13.67

2024 163 10 6.1% −72.59

2025 171 16 9.4% +57.36

2026 142 5 3.5% −89.88

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,744 147 8.4% −346.61

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 806 50 6.2% −335.05

8-10 runners 796 72 9% −134.07

14-16 runners 285 16 5.6% −78.62

5-7 runners 282 26 9.2% −24.34

17+ runners 86 4 4.7% −55.50

2-4 runners 17 1 5.9% −14.12

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Meandmyshadow (GB) 126 17 43 28 Sep 18

Blackcurrent (GB) 86 10 29 27 Aug 25

Urban Road (GB) 66 9 24 16 Oct 26

Jebel Tara (GB)from Clive Brittain · then Alistair Whillans 62 10 17 22 Aug 16

Blackjack (GB) 61 7 20 17 Sep 26

Jems Bond (GB) 60 7 22 1 Mar 25

Poppy In The Wind (GB) 57 5 17 18 Dec 19

Red Shadow (GB)then Alistair Whillans 56 2 20 27 Jan 16

Atrafan (IRE) 50 8 15 20 Apr 24

Fair Bunny (GB) 39 3 5 4 Nov 14

Wreck It Ryley (IRE)from Grant Tuer 38 4 14 12 Oct 26

Head To Head (IRE)from Peter Grayson 38 2 10 8 Apr 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 147 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 31 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Fahey (3) and Kevin Thomas Coleman (2); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Alistair Whillans (2) and Damien Wingrove (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

10910874677788

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDale Swift

10% of all rides
10.7% SR · A/E 1.40

RiderRWSR£1

Dale Swift 224 24 10.7% +34.00

Silvestre De Sousa 150 11 7.3% −40.50

Rowan Scott 116 13 11.2% +10.33

Tom Eaves 102 5 4.9% −66.72

Graham Gibbons 83 6 7.2% −35.00

Paula Muir 63 8 12.7% +13.20

Andrew Mullen 55 3 5.5% −24.50

Jimmy Quinn 55 5 9.1% +8.50

Robert Winston 46 4 8.7% −22.00

Barry McHugh 44 3 6.8% +59.00

Josh Doyle 44 6 13.6% +27.00

David Nolan 44 2 4.5% −33.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

190

Archived wins

£1.19m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 27 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Malko De Beaumont (FR) — Sodexo Prestige Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Haydock · Dec 2008 · Class 2

£22,768

River Logic (IRE) — Betfred Poker Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Final) Newcastle · Dec 2006 · Class 2

£12,526

Malko De Beaumont (FR) — Lloyd Volvo Xc60 Handicap Chase Carlisle · Nov 2008 · Class 3

£9,758

Notable horses

Meandmyshadow (GB) Blackcurrent (GB) Jebel Tara (GB) Urban Road (GB) Sudden Impulse (GB) Atrafan (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Tobougg (IRE) 10.9% · 18–165

Progeny have won 8.5% of 6,096 runs since 2008 (464 horses).

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 12.3% · 19–155

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,979 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Kuroshio (AUS) 10.1% · 10–99

Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,302 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Good going: 3.8% from 288.

Sleeping Indian (GB) 9.3% · 7–75

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,714 runs since 2008 (238 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.9% from 108.

Diktat (GB) 16.1% · 10–62

Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,931 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.4% from 431. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 156.

Piccolo (GB) 8.8% · 5–57

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,602 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,602 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2005 to 20 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Wish This (GB)J: Jake Dickson Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 5/1F

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Quiet Resolve (IRE)J: Tom Eaves AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 16/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Urban Road (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Margaret Macklam Memorial Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 33/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Charlie Darling (FR)J: Sean Kirrane quinnbet.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 66/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Not Me (GB)J: Tom Eaves Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 40/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Tom Eaves Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 20/1

27 Sep 26 Epsom Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 7th 8/1

23 Sep 26 Redcar Lilac Dandy (GB)J: Tom Eaves Weatherbysshop.co.uk Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 8th 300/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Princess Niyla (GB)J: Kyle McHugh Get The Inside Track With Raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 18/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Galistra (FR)J: Alistair Rawlinson Quinnbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 125/1

17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Blackjack (GB)J: Luke Morris Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 16/1

17 Sep 26 Ayr Quiet Resolve (IRE)J: Tom Eaves Idp Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 9th 14/1

11 Sep 26 Doncaster Quiet Resolve (IRE)J: Gay Kelleway Betfred Leger Legends Classified StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 12th 40/1

05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Wish This (GB)J: Tom Eaves Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 11/1

05 Sep 26 Haydock Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Ray Dawson HKJC World Pool Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 33/1

05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Princess Niyla (GB)J: Alex Jary Quinnbet.com Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 11/1

03 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Bantz (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 10/1

02 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Galistra (FR)J: Tom Eaves Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Blackjack (GB)J: Ray Dawson Free Tips On Attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 13/2

24 Aug 26 Musselburgh Bantz (IRE)J: Tom Eaves Watch On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 7th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Brown's strike rate?: Alan Brown has won 169 of 2,272 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Brown do best at?: Carlisle by strike rate: 8 wins from 65 runners (12.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Alan Brown?: Dale Swift, with 224 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (10.7%).
Is Alan Brown in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Alan Brown's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 2,255 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.