Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).
Deterministic profile computed from 585 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires May–JunTom Doyle: 5.4% from 56
The read
The record is strongest at Clonmel (14.7%, n=34), clear of the yard's 3.8% baseline. It is weakest at Tramore (0% over 40 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 0.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.21 and −119.00 to a £1 stake over 128 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tom Doyle rides 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.4%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 64 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0.8%−3.0
n=128 · A/E 0.21 · £1 −119.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.8
n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00
Debutants · first career start
3.1%−0.7
n=64 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.9%−0.9
n=34 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −23.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.5%+6.7
n=19 · A/E 2.34 · £1 +10.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=15 · A/E 1.75 · £1 +3.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.3%−0.5
n=272 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −151.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.8
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Clonmel14.7% vs 3.8% · n=34
With John Cullen8.6% vs 3.8% · n=35
Off a 61-180-day break0% vs 3.8% · n=64
At Tramore0% vs 3.8% · n=40
With new recruits0% vs 3.8% · n=39
At Punchestown0% vs 3.8% · n=35
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 13.7% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle386174.4%−180.50
Chase12332.4%−104.75
NH Flat4624.3%−16.00
Flat3000%−30.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft19284.2%−94.00
Good15442.6%−126.00
Heavy12065%−47.25
Good to Firm6646.1%−11.00
Good to Soft3400%−34.00
Standard (AW)1000%−10.00
Firm900%−9.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wexford5135.9%−16.50
Tramore4000%−40.00
Cork3725.4%−31.25
Gowran Park3625.6%+11.00
Punchestown3500%−35.00
Clonmel34514.7%+45.00
Limerick3313%−24.00
Fairyhouse3213.1%−17.00
Kilbeggan2613.8%−17.00
Navan2613.8%−15.00
Thurles2300%−23.00
Down Royal2300%−23.00
Killarney17211.8%−7.50
Wexford1700%−17.00
Downpatrick1700%−17.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11100%−11.00
Class 4700%−7.00
Class 5600%−6.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite20525%1.42−1.25
2nd–3rd fav5423.7%0.31−41.00
4th–6th fav12097.5%1.13−20.00
7th+ in betting39161.5%0.57−269.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f235114.7%−151.25
1m5f – 2m233104.3%−74.00
2m5f – 3m8811.1%−77.00
Over 3m1200%−12.00
1m – 1m1f1000%−10.00
1m2f – 1m4f700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200814964%−92.50
20098722.3%−77.00
20103712.7%−28.00
20111800%−18.00
20124137.3%−12.00
20135435.6%−20.00
20144124.9%−10.00
20159944%−40.75
20161400%−14.00
20171000%−10.00
20212514%+1.00
2022600%−6.00
2023100%−1.00
2025300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps277134.7%−137.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners23693.8%−151.00
17+ runners18584.3%−62.50
11-13 runners10443.8%−60.00
8-10 runners5000%−50.00
5-7 runners9111.1%−6.75
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 119 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs John Harrington (2) and Patrick A Kinsella (2); 35 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for E Sheehy (4) and N Dooly (3); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
334256360550
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
30
Archived wins
£336k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Pairofbrowneyes (IRE) — Christmas Party Raceday December 6th Handicap Chase Cork · Nov 2015
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.
Snurge (IRE)7.1% · 2–28
Progeny have won 8.8% of 1,506 runs since 2008 (135 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 12.5% from 176. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.8% from 520.
Beneficial (GB)0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Oscar (IRE)4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Taipan (IRE)4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,212 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12.6% from 159. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 6% from 133.
Shahrastani (USA)0% · 0–22
Progeny have won 5.4% of 392 runs since 2008 (47 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 704 · newest first
The latest 50 of 704 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 September 2005 to 11 July 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is L Byrne's strike rate?
L Byrne has won 22 of 585 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.8% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does L Byrne do best at?
Clonmel by strike rate: 5 wins from 34 runners (14.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for L Byrne?
Tom Doyle, with 56 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.4%).
What is L Byrne's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 585 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
L Byrne·SR 3.8%·A/E 0.77
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