Skip to content
Trainer profile

Ronald O'Leary

433 runners in the lifetime window · 72 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 304 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
29–433
Wins / Runs
6.7%
Strike rate
n=433
81 (19%)
Placed
0.90
Fair A/E
n=433 · 0.72 incl. margin
−255.21
£1 level stake
n=433 at SP · −58.9%
£240k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). Debutants are a strength: 17% on first career starts (53 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 433 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun D J Casey: 6.5% from 62
The read

Debutants strike at 17% (n=53, Fair A/E 1.29), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.4% (n=73, Fair A/E 0.26). D J Casey rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.5%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well in Class 6 (26.8%, n=41) and in NH Flat races (19.2%, n=52). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 67 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Schelm (GER) — 8 wins from 67 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.4%−5.3
n=73 · A/E 0.26 · £1 −64.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
17%+10.3
n=53 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −26.96
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
When favourite
34.6%
n=26 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −2.71
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.4%−1.3
n=130 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −76.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.7
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 6 26.8% vs 6.7% · n=41
In NH Flat races 19.2% vs 6.7% · n=52
With debutants 17% vs 6.7% · n=53
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 6.7% · n=67
With D G Hogan 0% vs 6.7% · n=40
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.7% · n=37
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 33.6% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 202 8 4% −147.00
Chase 117 9 7.7% −45.75
Flat 62 2 3.2% −41.00
NH Flat 52 10 19.2% −21.46

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 148 11 7.4% −93.62
Soft 109 8 7.3% −64.84
Heavy 72 3 4.2% −47.75
Good to Firm 41 4 9.8% −9.25
Good to Soft 35 2 5.7% −19.75
Standard (AW) 24 1 4.2% −16.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Killarney 42 2 4.8% −28.00
Limerick 38 2 5.3% −28.25
Thurles 33 1 3% −24.00
Cork 20 0 0% −20.00
Punchestown 17 1 5.9% −2.00
Tipperary 17 0 0% −17.00
Clonmel 16 0 0% −16.00
Wexford 16 0 0% −16.00
Galway 16 1 6.3% −11.00
Tramore 14 0 0% −14.00
Dundalk (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00
Downpatrick 13 0 0% −13.00
Gowran Park 13 0 0% −13.00
Ballinrobe 12 0 0% −12.00
Kilbeggan 11 1 9.1% −2.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 41 11 26.8% −2.46
Class 5 24 1 4.2% −11.00
Class 4 18 5 27.8% +5.25
Class 1 13 0 0% −13.00
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 2 1 1 100% +9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 10 32.3% 1.20 −4.96
2nd–3rd fav 63 11 17.5% 1.20 −5.75
4th–6th fav 109 5 4.6% 0.66 −56.50
7th+ in betting 230 3 1.3% 0.42 −188.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
80.6% completed · 319 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 117 77.8% 5 5 15 1 0
Hurdle 202 82.2% 6 2 26 2 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Schelm (GER)then John Quinn 59 8 19 16 Oct 13
One Fine Morning (GB)then Tom Clover 44 4 9 9 Aug 17
Western Man (IRE)then Donncha Duggan 37 1 8 2 Apr 15
Follow The Sun (IRE)then Peter Niven 27 1 5 14 Sep 10
Queeny (IRE) 24 3 5 7 Sep 18
Claiming Benefits (IRE) 19 1 4 8 Sep 15
Buckland Gold (IRE)from D M Grissell 17 2 4 26 Nov 09
Kinneagh Cross (IRE) 16 0 3 23 Sep 14
Derg Princess (IRE)then Gordon Elliott 10 0 1 18 Aug 11
About The House (IRE) 9 0 0 6 Oct 11
High Notes (IRE) 9 0 2 23 Jul 11
With Speed (GER)from Adrian Maguire 9 0 2 29 Dec 10
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 72 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive; 45 had their first archived run for this yard.

25 have since run for another yard, most often for Warren Greatrex (5) and Gordon Elliott (2); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
013714894609153
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderD J Casey
14% of all rides
6.5% SR · A/E 1.03
RiderRWSR£1
D J Casey 62 4 6.5% −28.00
Mark Walsh 43 2 4.7% −21.00
D G Hogan 40 0 0% −40.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
34
Archived wins
£276k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Schelm (GER) — Sir John Hanmer Graduation Chase Bangor-on-Dee · Nov 2009 · Class 2
£18,786
Schelm (GER) — Bulmers Summer Sundays Novice Hurdle Limerick · Jul 2008
£18,228
Schelm (GER) — www.motivatechallenge.com Chase Punchestown · May 2010
£13,650
Notable horses
Schelm (GER) One Fine Morning (GB) Sundeck (FR) Queeny (IRE) Buckland Gold (IRE) Western Man (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Alwuhush (USA) 13.6% · 8–59
Progeny have won 12.8% of 125 runs since 2008 (3 horses).
Westerner (GB) 6.4% · 3–47
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,861 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Milan (GB) 13% · 6–46
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,884 runs since 2008 (1,464 horses).
Generous (IRE) 9.1% · 4–44
Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,332 runs since 2008 (251 horses).
Tertullian (USA) 3.7% · 1–27
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,007 runs since 2008 (113 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.8% from 251.
Oscar (IRE) 0% · 0–22
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 528 · newest first

The latest 50 of 528 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 8 January 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Jan 26 Clonmel Daytime Friend (IRE)J: Mr D Allen Rathronan Maiden Hunters Chase20.5f · Heavy · 12 ran PU 125/1
02 Oct 25 Clonmel The Eye Of Tulla (IRE)J: Danny Gilligan Tickincor Handicap Chase (0-100)18.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 11/1
29 Sep 25 Roscommon Texas Red (FR)J: Mr P J O'Neill Connolly's RED MILLS Flat Race15.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 5th 50/1
12 Sep 25 Ballinrobe The Eye Of Tulla (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Chase (0-100)23f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 20/1
15 Aug 25 Tramore Texas Red (FR)J: Mr P J O'Neill Majestic Hotel Flat Race16.5f · Good · 10 ran 5th 25/1
17 Jul 25 Killarney Texas Red (FR)J: Caragh Monaghan Kate Kearney's Cottage (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Yielding To Soft · 7 ran 4th 22/1
04 Jul 25 Wexford Larkins Lane (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Clearwater Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)17f · Good · 14 ran 13th 25/1
30 May 25 Tramore Texas Red (FR)J: Caragh Monaghan QuinnBet (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 6th 50/1
29 May 25 Limerick Larkins Lane (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle McMahons Builders Providers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)19f · Good · 14 ran PU 20/1
10 May 25 Cork Larkins Lane (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle19f · Good · 16 ran 11th 125/1
08 May 25 Tipperary Mon Euil (FR)J: Mr P J O'Neill Buy Tickets Online Novice Hunters Chase23.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 7th 10/1
30 May 24 Limerick Larkins Lane (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Mcmahons Builders Providers Mares Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 6th 100/1
13 May 24 Killarney Larkins Lane (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Executive Helicopters Mares Maiden Hurdle22.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 8th 150/1
19 Apr 24 Limerick Larkins Lane (IRE)J: A P Heskin Limerick Races On Instagram Maiden Hurdle24f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran PU 66/1
04 Apr 24 Naas Mon Euil (FR)J: Simon Torrens Buy The Centenary Of Naas Racecourse Book By Turtle Bunbury Handicap Hurdle (80-95)24f · Soft To Heavy · 23 ran PU 33/1
25 Feb 24 Naas Mon Euil (FR)J: A P Heskin Naas Racecourse Business Club Maiden Hurdle15.5f · Soft · 25 ran 12th 200/1
13 Feb 24 Thurles Western Express (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle www.thurlesraces.ie Maiden Hurdle20f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran PU 150/1
13 Feb 24 Thurles Mon Euil (FR)J: A P Heskin www.thurlesraces.ie Maiden Hurdle20f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 9th 28/1
15 Jan 24 Punchestown Mon Euil (FR)J: A P Heskin Download The Bet Victor App Maiden Hurdle23f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 66/1
29 Dec 23 Limerick Western Express (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle19f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ronald O'Leary's strike rate?
Ronald O'Leary has won 29 of 433 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ronald O'Leary do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 2 wins from 38 runners (5.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ronald O'Leary?
D J Casey, with 62 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6.5%).
What is Ronald O'Leary's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 433 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).