What is Tom Ellis's strike rate?

Tom Ellis has won 69 of 442 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom Ellis do best at?

Southwell by strike rate: 8 wins from 31 runners (25.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tom Ellis?

Jack Andrews, with 278 runners since 2008 — 63% of the total. That pairing has won 42 (15.1%).

Is Tom Ellis in form?

In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 15.6% since 2008.

What is Tom Ellis's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 442 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tom Ellis

442 runners in the lifetime window · 104 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 2.5% of 201 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.

Runners today 97% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

69–442

Wins / Runs

15.6%

Strike rate

n=442

158 (36%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=442 · 0.92 incl. margin

−113.26

£1 level stake

n=442 at SP · −25.6%

£592k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 18% off breaks of two months or more (103 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 442 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 17.5% 40.6% when favourite Jack Andrews: 15.1% from 278 New recruits: 16% Sends off the favourite in 16% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (25.8%, n=31), clear of the yard's 15.6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 8.6% (n=58, Fair A/E 0.85). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 0 from 16 runners in the last 14 days (0%, 15.6pts below the 15.6% baseline). Jack Andrews rides 63% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.1%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (24.1%, n=108). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 6.3% over 48 runners, 9.3pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Orange Diamond (FR) — 5 wins from 11 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

17.5%+1.9

n=103 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −4.28

New recruits · first run for the yard

16%+0.4

n=50 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −19.17

Debutants · first career start

8.6%−7.0

n=58 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −18.75

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4%−11.6

n=25 · A/E 0.32 · £1 −23.38

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.7%−8.9

n=15 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −10.00

When favourite

40.6%

n=69 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −6.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.4%−2.2

n=186 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −69.21

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−15.6

n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 29% vs 15.6% · n=31

Over 2m5f – 3m 24.1% vs 15.6% · n=108

On last-time-out winners 24.2% vs 15.6% · n=66

In NH Flat races 6.3% vs 15.6% · n=48

At Southwell 25.8% vs 15.6% · n=31

Off a 8-14-day break 6.5% vs 15.6% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 220 30 13.6% −103.27

Chase 160 34 21.3% +15.51

NH Flat 48 3 6.3% −22.50

Flat 14 2 14.3% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 199 35 17.6% −58.97

Good to Soft 135 24 17.8% −26.16

Soft 73 8 11% −4.13

Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00

Good to Firm 11 0 0% −11.00

Standard (AW) 10 2 20% +1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Stratford 37 4 10.8% −24.59

Southwell 31 8 25.8% −3.75

Worcester 28 3 10.7% −16.75

Market Rasen 28 7 25% +2.35

Warwick 27 2 7.4% +19.50

Cheltenham 26 5 19.2% +0.62

Uttoxeter 23 4 17.4% −12.15

Fakenham 22 5 22.7% −4.80

Huntingdon 21 1 4.8% −16.50

Aintree 15 1 6.7% −10.50

Fontwell 13 0 0% −13.00

Chepstow 12 0 0% −12.00

Sedgefield 11 4 36.4% −0.14

Plumpton 11 2 18.2% −1.56

Bangor-on-Dee 11 2 18.2% +3.57

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 176 23 13.1% −59.23

Class 5 172 37 21.5% −25.56

Class 3 36 5 13.9% −19.68

Class 2 28 1 3.6% −23.50

Class 6 16 3 18.8% +28.71

Class 1 12 0 0% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 80 30 37.5% 1.08 −10.63

2nd–3rd fav 129 25 19.4% 1.01 −23.13

4th–6th fav 124 13 10.5% 1.40 −11.50

7th+ in betting 109 1 0.9% 0.39 −68.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.7% completed · 380 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 160 84.4% 3 2 20 0 0

Hurdle 220 91.8% 2 0 16 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Latenightpass (GB) 16 3 6 11 Mar 26

Latenightrumble (GB) 14 2 6 21 Apr 26

Soldier's Leap (IRE) 12 2 7 23 Apr 26

Four Decades (GB) 11 0 0 2 Nov 26

Crackerjack Queen (IRE) 11 0 2 25 Aug 26

Orange Diamond (FR)from Clive Boultbee-Brooks 11 5 8 24 Jul 26

Secret Vino (GB) 11 3 3 4 May 26

Character Testing (GB)from Tom Clover · then Mark Walford 11 0 3 28 Nov 25

Receipt (GB) 10 1 2 4 Nov 26

Anariza (FR) 10 1 4 3 Nov 26

Tigers Moon (GB) 10 2 7 1 Nov 26

Huckleberry Sting (GB)from Dan Skelton 10 3 6 26 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 30 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dan Skelton (3) and Nicky Henderson (2); 30 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 16 0% · −15.6pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

Lifetime base15.6%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

41914231512161321171413

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJack Andrews

63% of all rides
15.1% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Jack Andrews 278 42 15.1% −100.25

Miss Gina Andrews 102 16 15.7% −36.13

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

Archived wins

£592k

Prize money

2026

Best season · 27 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Latenightpass (GB) — Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase Aintree · Apr 2022 · Class 2

£24,155

Daytime Dreaming (IRE) — Highclere Horse Feeds Oataalin Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Newbury · Feb 2026 · Class 3

£10,562

The Dog Thief (IRE) — Follow racingtv On Instagram Handicap Hurdle Perth · Apr 2026 · Class 3

£7,922

Notable horses

Orange Diamond (FR) Tankardstown Diva (IRE) Mr Mcwhinny (IRE) Latenightpass (GB) Secret Vino (GB) Huckleberry Sting (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Passing Glance (GB) 8.8% · 3–34

Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,563 runs since 2008 (293 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 30.4% · 7–23

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,874 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Yeats (IRE) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,836 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Linda's Lad (GB) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,323 runs since 2012 (186 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.6% from 215.

Westerner (GB) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,853 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Jack Hobbs (GB) 0% · 0–15

Progeny have won 10.4% of 1,081 runs since 2021 (203 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 18% from 122.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 443 · newest first

The latest 50 of 443 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 March 2006 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Receipt (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 10th 25/1

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Mr Mcwhinny (IRE)J: Jack Andrews DragonBet Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran F 9/2

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Lady Bam (IRE)J: Jack Andrews LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 250/1

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Anariza (FR)J: Miss Gina Andrews Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 5/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Ocean View (GB)J: Jack Andrews Winter Ladies Night Saturday 27th November 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran PU 50/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Chiquita Milano (GB)J: Jack Andrews Southwell Racecourse Conference And Events Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 8th 20/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Four Decades (GB)J: Finn Lambert Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 20/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Tandy's Bridge (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Copybet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 10th 28/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester Tigers Moon (GB)J: Jack Andrews Copybet Pay First Past The Post Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 5/1

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Wonder Flying (FR)J: Miss Gina Andrews Pricedup Now With Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 10/1

01 Nov 26 Worcester The Dog Thief (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Copybet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 5/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Givemeyourword (IRE)J: Miss Gina Andrews Bob Derry 50 Years At Uttoxeter National Hunt Flat Race (conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 4th 15/2

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Kimai (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Dandara Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 11/4

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Back To Sea (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 15/2

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Lady Bam (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan & Touring Site Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 66/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Dennis's Honor (GB)J: Jack Andrews Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 33/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Receipt (GB)J: Rob Hornby Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 12th 66/1

19 Oct 26 Plumpton Golly Gosh (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Back British Farming Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/9F

17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Golly Gosh (IRE)J: Jack Andrews Pertemps Network Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 11/4

14 Oct 26 Ffos Las Desertmore News (IRE)J: Jack Andrews JCP Solicitors Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Soft · 5 ran 3rd 7/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 1) · to 1 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Ellis's strike rate?: Tom Ellis has won 69 of 442 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Ellis do best at?: Southwell by strike rate: 8 wins from 31 runners (25.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tom Ellis?: Jack Andrews, with 278 runners since 2008 — 63% of the total. That pairing has won 42 (15.1%).
Is Tom Ellis in form?: In the last 14 days: 16 runners, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 15.6% since 2008.
What is Tom Ellis's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 442 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.