What is Fergal O'Brien's strike rate?

Fergal O'Brien has won 1,082 of 6,799 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Fergal O'Brien do best at?

Perth by strike rate: 43 wins from 176 runners (24.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Fergal O'Brien?

Paddy Brennan, with 2,332 runners since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 465 (19.9%).

Is Fergal O'Brien in form?

In the last 14 days: 27 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 11.1%. That is below the baseline of 15.9% since 2008.

What is Fergal O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 6,793 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Fergal O'Brien

6,799 runners in the lifetime window · 849 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 7.0% of 633 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 3 Nov 2026.

Won yesterday Runners today 96% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,082–6,799

Wins / Runs

15.9%

Strike rate

n=6,799

2,532 (37%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=6,793 · 0.90 incl. margin

−990.89

£1 level stake

n=6,799 at SP · −14.6%

£11.4m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 360 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). The yard is quiet just now — 3 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 6,799 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 38.1% when favourite Paddy Brennan: 19.9% from 2,332 Sends off the favourite in 17% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (24.4%, n=176), clear of the yard's 15.9% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 8.5% (n=188, Fair A/E 0.72). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 3 from 27 runners in the last 14 days (11.1%, 4.8pts below the 15.9% baseline). Paddy Brennan rides 34% of the entries and edges the yard's average (19.9% vs 15.9%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (27%, n=89). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 2.6% over 39 runners, 13.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.81 across 182 runners (8.2% strike, −79.88 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (Dec 2024, £71,188). The stable star of the record: Perfect Candidate (IRE) — 9 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

14.4%−1.5

n=1,805 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −323.35

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.6%−1.3

n=438 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −50.96

Debutants · first career start

15.9%+0.0

n=428 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −21.51

First-time headgear · true-first definition

16%+0.1

n=337 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −24.48

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.5%−7.4

n=188 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −91.39

When favourite

38.1%

n=1,123 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −59.65

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14.2%−1.7

n=2,099 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −526.70

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11%−4.9

n=429 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −95.99

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Kielan Woods 27.8% vs 15.9% · n=97

Off a 0-7-day break 27% vs 15.9% · n=89

Over 1m – 1m1f 2.6% vs 15.9% · n=39

On last-time-out winners 22.9% vs 15.9% · n=1,051

At Perth 24.4% vs 15.9% · n=176

On Standard (AW) going 8.2% vs 15.9% · n=182

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 3,778 601 15.9% −661.22

Chase 1,852 309 16.7% −189.63

NH Flat 894 141 15.8% −72.99

Flat 275 31 11.3% −67.05

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 3,113 529 17% −357.12

Good to Soft 1,554 228 14.7% −229.35

Soft 1,262 187 14.8% −246.76

Heavy 404 70 17.3% −70.31

Good to Firm 282 53 18.8% −5.47

Standard (AW) 182 15 8.2% −79.88

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Uttoxeter 505 83 16.4% −44.63

Cheltenham 447 52 11.6% +14.95

Worcester 418 60 14.4% −109.34

Market Rasen 391 75 19.2% −10.89

Ludlow 297 52 17.5% −70.62

Huntingdon 284 63 22.2% +32.60

Southwell 284 45 15.8% −63.04

Chepstow 277 32 11.6% −80.56

Stratford 271 41 15.1% −85.43

Warwick 259 29 11.2% −87.78

Newton Abbot 216 46 21.3% −7.89

Exeter 195 27 13.8% −48.35

Newbury 193 29 15% +3.09

Perth 176 43 24.4% +17.28

Bangor-on-Dee 171 31 18.1% −39.19

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 2,825 495 17.5% −558.80

Class 5 1,548 244 15.8% −253.76

Class 3 1,113 190 17.1% +43.86

Class 2 550 59 10.7% −110.44

Class 1 483 49 10.1% −126.49

Class 6 267 44 16.5% +18.74

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,292 465 36% 1.07 −96.10

2nd–3rd fav 2,155 394 18.3% 1.01 −253.79

4th–6th fav 2,058 171 8.3% 1.00 −338.00

7th+ in betting 1,294 52 4% 1.10 −303.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 2,363 386 16.3% −290.88

2m1f – 2m4f 2,091 355 17% −280.23

2m5f – 3m 1,680 263 15.7% −296.36

Over 3m 464 60 12.9% −58.58

1m2f – 1m4f 119 13 10.9% −37.59

6f – 7f 39 4 10.3% +5.75

1m – 1m1f 39 1 2.6% −29.00

Under 6f 4 0 0% −4.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 5 1 20% +8.00

2009 13 1 7.7% −10.80

2010 8 3 37.5% +32.62

2011 57 6 10.5% −17.50

2012 204 22 10.8% −85.62

2013 307 46 15% +44.73

2014 283 30 10.6% −47.79

2015 212 26 12.3% −34.37

2016 311 57 18.3% +67.83

2017 378 66 17.5% −17.48

2018 391 45 11.5% −149.51

2019 372 65 17.5% +14.55

2020 441 85 19.3% −58.16

2021 727 134 18.4% −78.87

2022 836 143 17.1% −207.97

2023 617 121 19.6% −7.47

2024 591 77 13% −184.99

2025 611 97 15.9% −116.62

2026 435 57 13.1% −141.47

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,928 588 15% −468.23

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,213 368 16.6% −171.86

5-7 runners 1,822 332 18.2% −411.15

11-13 runners 1,462 182 12.4% −259.59

14-16 runners 673 75 11.1% −106.29

2-4 runners 336 107 31.8% +15.42

17+ runners 293 18 6.1% −57.42

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87% completed · 5,630 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,852 79.3% 69 50 257 5 3

Hurdle 3,778 90.8% 69 25 240 6 6

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Owen Na View (IRE) 52 6 16 1 Nov 17

Perfect Candidate (IRE) 45 9 16 20 Feb 21

Gud Day (IRE)from Ronald Harris · then Conor Dore 44 2 20 23 Nov 14

Castel Gandolfo (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington 43 5 17 11 Nov 25

Golden Taipan (IRE) 38 7 14 1 Aug 23

Zucayan (FR) 36 3 14 4 Oct 26

King Muro (GB)from Andrew Balding · then Michael Roberts 36 5 9 26 Sep 18

Stoner's Choice (GB)from Ben Case 34 6 10 24 Oct 26

Hurricane Harvey (GB) 34 6 15 24 Apr 24

Oscar Rose (IRE) 34 7 17 5 Sep 21

Lord Landen (IRE)from Andy Hobbs 34 5 14 6 May 17

Pull Again Green (IRE)from Harley Dean Dunne 31 7 12 6 Mar 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 849 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 20 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Gallagher (2) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2); 34 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard; 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

3 from 27 11.1% · −4.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days11.1%

Lifetime base15.9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131514171915161917151914

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaddy Brennan

34% of all rides
19.9% SR · A/E 1.09

RiderRWSR£1

Paddy Brennan 2,332 465 19.9% −67.45

Connor Brace 624 94 15.1% −24.40

Liam Harrison 586 80 13.7% −132.85

Jonathan Burke 584 90 15.4% −180.48

Jack Hogan 357 54 15.1% −105.61

Conor Shoemark 324 31 9.6% −129.73

Fern O'Brien 227 31 13.7% −76.09

Alain Cawley 211 20 9.5% −10.67

Max Kendrick 207 28 13.5% −97.66

Mr Tom Broughton 177 33 18.6% −13.64

Kielan Woods 97 27 27.8% +68.75

Nick Slatter 91 7 7.7% −26.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

1,082

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.4m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 143 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Crambo (GB) — Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Ascot · Dec 2024 · Grade 1

£71,188

Chase The Spud (GB) — Betfred Midlands Grand National (Listed Handicap Chase) Uttoxeter · Mar 2017 · Listed

£70,338

Crambo (GB) — Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Ascot · Dec 2023 · Grade 1

£62,645

Notable horses

Perfect Candidate (IRE) Creevytennant (IRE) Crambo (GB) Golden Taipan (IRE) Oscar Rose (IRE) Pull Again Green (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Flemensfirth (USA) 12.8% · 32–250

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,285 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Presenting (GB) 10.4% · 20–193

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Kayf Tara (GB) 19% · 34–179

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,751 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Beneficial (GB) 15.6% · 26–167

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Mahler (GB) 22.3% · 35–157

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,869 runs since 2014 (786 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Getaway (GER) 17.7% · 26–147

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,803 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,803 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 March 2007 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Nov 26 Warwick Katarcice (FR)J: Jack Hogan Alex & Edward Alder Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 21f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 100/30

03 Nov 26 Lingfield Cooler Than Me (GB)J: Fern O'Brien attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 5/2F

03 Nov 26 Warwick Wedonttellthetruth (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Alder Demain & Akers Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 4th 14/1

02 Nov 26 Southwell Midnight Jukebox (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Winter Ladies Night Saturday 27th November 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 1st 2/1

01 Nov 26 Huntingdon Check The Score (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Copybet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 25f · Good · 8 ran 6th 9/2

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Kamsinas (FR)J: Fern O'Brien Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 11/1

01 Nov 26 Huntingdon Blue Topaz (GB)J: Jack Hogan CopyBet Follow Us On X Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 4 ran PU 6/1

01 Nov 26 Huntingdon Tenadaay (GB)J: Jack Hogan CopyBet For Football Profit Boosts Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 22/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Milly Ocean (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Support The Royal British Legion Poppy Appeal Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 9th 16/1

29 Oct 26 Stratford Ignite The Night (GB)J: Jack Hogan Charlotte Cole And Becky Rowland Memorial Fillies' "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 13/2

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Clondaw Sergeant (IRE)J: Mr Thomas Stanley Walters Group National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional & Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 11/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Miss Spec (GB)J: Fern O'Brien Thankyou & Farewell Dr. Tim Tilsley Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 8/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Rock On Cowboy (IRE)J: Tom Broughton Passage House Hotel South Devon Gateway Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 16/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Heart Over Head (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Wollens Full Spectrum Law Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 7th 12/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Strong Run (GB)J: Liam Harrison Mount Vines Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran UR 9/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Edith Pelham (GB)J: Jack Hogan Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 16/1

26 Oct 26 Hereford John Galt (FR)J: Liam Harrison BETTING.BET New Betting Sites Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 13/2

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Delusionofgrandeur (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 20/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Freetobe (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 11/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Stoner's Choice (GB)J: Fern O'Brien Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran PU 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 8 runs (won 2) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 1, 2 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 10 runs (won 2, 1 did not run) · to 2 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Fergal O'Brien's strike rate?: Fergal O'Brien has won 1,082 of 6,799 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fergal O'Brien do best at?: Perth by strike rate: 43 wins from 176 runners (24.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Fergal O'Brien?: Paddy Brennan, with 2,332 runners since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 465 (19.9%).
Is Fergal O'Brien in form?: In the last 14 days: 27 runners, 3 winners, a strike rate of 11.1%. That is below the baseline of 15.9% since 2008.
What is Fergal O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 6,793 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.