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Trainer profile

Garvan Donnelly

1,007 runners in the lifetime window · 88 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Feb 2022
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
65–1,007
Wins / Runs
6.5%
Strike rate
n=1,007
200 (20%)
Placed
1.02
Fair A/E
n=1,003 · 0.80 incl. margin
−463.42
£1 level stake
n=1,007 at SP · −46.0%
£659k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,007 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 21.6% when favourite Gary Phillips: 11.2% from 107 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Bellewstown (13.3%, n=30), clear of the yard's 6.5% baseline. It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 46 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=47, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.52 and −101.00 to a £1 stake over 136 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Gary Phillips rides 11% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.2% vs 6.5%, A/E 1.47) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (12.2%, n=90). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 48 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the I.t.b.a Fillies Scheme E.B.F Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase at Limerick (Mar 2010, £27,625). The stable star of the record: Plough Boy (IRE) — 12 wins from 86 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.2%−4.3
n=136 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −101.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
2.9%−3.6
n=34 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −26.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.5
n=47 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −47.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.4%−4.1
n=41 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −32.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.5%−2.0
n=44 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
21.6%
n=37 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −2.92
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.5%+0.0
n=537 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −237.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
12.5%+6.0
n=8 · A/E 1.52 · £1 −3.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Seamie Heffernan 15.8% vs 6.5% · n=38
Off a 0-7-day break 12.2% vs 6.5% · n=90
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.5% · n=48
With debutants 0% vs 6.5% · n=47
At Gowran Park 0% vs 6.5% · n=46
At Bellewstown 13.3% vs 6.5% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 798 57 7.1% −328.25
Hurdle 139 5 3.6% −88.00
Chase 57 3 5.3% −34.17
NH Flat 13 0 0% −13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 336 30 8.9% −89.00
Soft 220 9 4.1% −141.67
Good 171 8 4.7% −90.25
Good to Firm 113 11 9.7% −25.50
Heavy 95 5 5.3% −58.00
Good to Soft 69 2 2.9% −56.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 330 29 8.8% −91.00
Fairyhouse 62 6 9.7% +6.00
Navan 57 2 3.5% −39.50
Naas 53 6 11.3% −3.00
Curragh 50 1 2% −41.00
Down Royal 49 3 6.1% −22.00
Gowran Park 46 0 0% −46.00
Leopardstown 43 1 2.3% −34.00
Tipperary 33 1 3% −22.00
Bellewstown 30 4 13.3% −7.50
Roscommon 29 0 0% −29.00
Limerick 25 2 8% −9.67
Galway 24 0 0% −24.00
Cork 18 1 5.6% −1.00
Punchestown 17 0 0% −17.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 12 1 8.3% −8.00
Class 4 9 1 11.1% −1.50
Class 1 8 1 12.5% −3.67
Class 5 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 3 3 1 33.3% +2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 57 12 21.1% 1.20 −3.42
2nd–3rd fav 136 20 14.7% 1.15 −17.00
4th–6th fav 222 24 10.8% 1.42 +4.00
7th+ in betting 592 9 1.5% 0.46 −447.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Lily's Prince (IRE) 106 9 33 21 Feb 20
Plough Boy (IRE)from Willie Musson 86 12 25 24 Aug 21
Catwilldo (IRE) 69 6 21 27 Jul 18
Misty Millie (IRE)from P Cluskey · then Dermot A McLoughlin 52 4 16 18 Nov 21
Home Secretary (GB)from S J Mahon 39 6 11 21 Mar 14
Harry Speed (IRE)from Jedd O'Keeffe 38 1 7 31 Aug 20
Equation Of Time (GB)from Willie Musson 38 4 7 17 Feb 17
Ningaloo Reef (IRE) 34 5 10 27 Sep 14
Samollie (IRE) 33 3 11 27 Sep 13
Rocky's Pride (IRE)from Willie Musson · then Richard Whitaker 31 2 7 19 Aug 13
Mallory Heights (IRE)from Luca Cumani 29 0 5 3 Oct 17
Final Orders (GB)from Simon Crisford · then Gavin Cromwell 28 1 4 1 Jan 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 88 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Willie Musson (3); 34 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Gavin Cromwell (4); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
413105548855108
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGary Phillips
11% of all rides
11.2% SR · A/E 1.47
RiderRWSR£1
Gary Phillips 107 12 11.2% +2.50
Donagh O'Connor 55 6 10.9% −10.00
Robbie Downey 51 5 9.8% −15.75
Shane Foley 47 4 8.5% −14.00
Seamie Heffernan 38 6 15.8% +12.50
Colin Keane 38 3 7.9% −15.50
Killian Leonard 32 3 9.4% −12.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
67
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£687k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Inistioge (IRE) — I.t.b.a Fillies Scheme E.B.F Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase (grade 3) Limerick · Mar 2010 · Grade 3
£27,625
Home Secretary (GB) — www.dundalkstadium.com Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2010
£13,975
Plough Boy (IRE) — Indaver Ireland Handicap Bellewstown · Jul 2018
£12,320
Notable horses
Plough Boy (IRE) Lily's Prince (IRE) Catwilldo (IRE) Home Secretary (GB) Ningaloo Reef (IRE) Misty Millie (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Strategic Prince (GB) 9.2% · 15–163
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,496 runs since 2011 (144 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 141.
Dandy Man (IRE) 11.5% · 12–104
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,968 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
One Cool Cat (USA) 8.7% · 6–69
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,592 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.4% from 605.
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 7.7% · 4–52
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,493 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Acclamation (GB) 11.1% · 5–45
Progeny have won 10% of 19,709 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.
Machiavellian (USA) 15.4% · 6–39
Progeny have won 8% of 1,598 runs since 2008 (74 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,135 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,135 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 June 2005 to 1 February 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Feb 22 Limerick Don'tsayaword (IRE)J: Conor Orr Follow Limerick Racecourse On Twitter (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 14 ran PU 250/1
28 Jan 22 Dundalk (AW) Livindadream (IRE)J: James Ryan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Claiming Race10.5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 250/1
19 Jan 22 Dundalk (AW) Livindadream (IRE)J: Ben Coen Irishinjuredjockeys.com Maiden12f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 125/1
14 Jan 22 Dundalk (AW) Dash To Dawn (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 16/1
01 Jan 22 Fairyhouse Final Orders (GB)J: Conor Orr Tote+ Pays You More At Tote.ie Handicap Hurdle (80-109) (Div 1)24.5f · Yielding · 19 ran PU 10/1
11 Dec 21 Fairyhouse Final Orders (GB)J: Conor Orr Irish Thoroughbred Welfare Council Best Turned-out League Handicap Hurdle (80-102)23.5f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran PU 7/2F
18 Nov 21 Thurles Misty Millie (IRE)J: Conor Orr Thurlesraces.ie Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 12th 22/1
13 Nov 21 Punchestown Final Orders (GB)J: Conor Orr Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle (80-109)24f · Yielding · 21 ran 2nd 14/1
04 Nov 21 Thurles Misty Millie (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy Ballagh Mares Handicap Hurdle20f · Yielding · 14 ran F 14/1
31 Oct 21 Naas Storm Eric (IRE)J: Ben Coen Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden8f · Heavy · 20 ran 11th 150/1
31 Oct 21 Naas Earls (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Kessaar Handicap5f · Heavy · 13 ran 1st 9/2
29 Oct 21 Down Royal Final Orders (GB)J: Conor Orr Lough Construction Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24f · Soft · 20 ran 5th 12/1
26 Oct 21 Curragh Earls (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Paddy Power 'Horsey Run Fast' Handicap (45-75)5f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 5/1F
26 Oct 21 Curragh Dha Leath (IRE)J: Ben Coen Paddy Power 'I'd Love A Pint But I Forgot My Covid Cert' Handicap (45-70)10f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran 4th 10/1
18 Oct 21 Gowran Park Don'tsayaword (IRE)J: Ben Coen Extra Places Everyday At BetVictor (C & G) Maiden8f · Soft · 16 ran 15th 300/1
12 Oct 21 Punchestown Final Orders (GB)J: Conor Orr Ladbrokes Proud To Support Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20.5f · Good · 20 ran 5th 11/1
10 Oct 21 Curragh Earls (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Sentinel Ireland Handicap (45-75)6f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 4th 12/1
06 Oct 21 Navan Dha Leath (IRE)J: Ben Coen Yellow Furze Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)10f · Soft · 18 ran 1st 12/1
30 Sep 21 Bellewstown Misty Millie (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Byrne Marquees Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)12f · Yielding · 16 ran 15th 9/1
30 Sep 21 Bellewstown Earls (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Gannons City Recovery And Recycling Services Ltd. Supporting DAFA Handicap (45-75)7.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 4th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Garvan Donnelly's strike rate?
Garvan Donnelly has won 65 of 1,007 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Garvan Donnelly do best at?
Bellewstown by strike rate: 4 wins from 30 runners (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Garvan Donnelly?
Gary Phillips, with 107 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (11.2%).
What is Garvan Donnelly's Fair A/E?
1.02, from 1,003 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).