What is Gavin Cromwell's strike rate?

Gavin Cromwell has won 829 of 8,197 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Gavin Cromwell do best at?

Downpatrick by strike rate: 40 wins from 265 runners (15.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Gavin Cromwell?

Keith Donoghue, with 1,339 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 185 (13.8%).

Is Gavin Cromwell in form?

In the last 14 days: 37 runners, 7 winners, a strike rate of 18.9%. That is above the baseline of 10.1% since 2008.

What is Gavin Cromwell's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 8,190 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Gavin Cromwell

8,197 runners in the lifetime window · 870 individual horses

As at 27 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 8.5% of 1,207 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 27 Oct 2026.

In form — 7 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last runner yesterday

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

829–8,197

Wins / Runs

10.1%

Strike rate

n=8,197

2,344 (29%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=8,190 · 0.82 incl. margin

−2,666.07

£1 level stake

n=8,197 at SP · −32.5%

£17.2m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 430 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). The yard is in form now — 7 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 8,197 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10.6% 32.4% when favourite Keith Donoghue: 13.8% from 1,339 New recruits: 11.2% Sends off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

Right now the yard is firing: 7 winners from 37 runners in the last 14 days (18.9%, 8.8pts above the 10.1% baseline). Keith Donoghue rides 16% of the entries and edges the yard's average (13.8% vs 10.1%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well in Class 5 (32.6%, n=46) and in Class 4 (18.8%, n=80). 69 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2025, £364,314). The stable star of the record: Final Orders (GB) — 10 wins from 40 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.6%+0.5

n=1,409 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −298.69

New recruits · first run for the yard

11.2%+1.1

n=321 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −57.96

Debutants · first career start

8.2%−1.9

n=548 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −98.45

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.9%−0.2

n=355 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −128.42

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.7%+0.6

n=345 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −63.27

When favourite

32.4%

n=830 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −87.38

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.2%−1.9

n=2,122 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −751.59

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.9%−0.2

n=697 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −205.77

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 5 32.6% vs 10.1% · n=46

On last-time-out winners 18.6% vs 10.1% · n=803

With Mr Derek O'Connor 25% vs 10.1% · n=44

With Mark Walsh 20% vs 10.1% · n=115

In Class 4 18.8% vs 10.1% · n=80

In Class 6 20.5% vs 10.1% · n=39

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 3,548 366 10.3% −1,215.76

Flat 2,662 226 8.5% −790.97

Chase 1,675 194 11.6% −582.19

NH Flat 312 43 13.8% −77.15

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 2,976 275 9.2% −1,161.13

Good 2,066 235 11.4% −549.52

Heavy 1,243 136 10.9% −275.54

Good to Soft 1,044 102 9.8% −428.91

Standard (AW) 652 57 8.7% −205.08

Good to Firm 212 24 11.3% −41.89

Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fairyhouse 622 50 8% −363.43

Dundalk (AW) 588 45 7.7% −221.54

Punchestown 558 66 11.8% −193.64

Navan 489 41 8.4% −133.41

Leopardstown 447 28 6.3% −169.78

Galway 403 30 7.4% −180.18

Naas 368 34 9.2% −144.72

Gowran Park 331 30 9.1% −118.74

Cork 317 29 9.1% −79.82

Limerick 310 36 11.6% −99.19

Down Royal 281 31 11% −19.01

Curragh 271 21 7.7% −40.12

Downpatrick 265 40 15.1% −54.79

Bellewstown 251 36 14.3% −48.68

Kilbeggan 244 25 10.2% −51.12

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 765 74 9.7% −241.52

Class 2 98 13 13.3% −25.45

Class 4 80 15 18.8% −15.74

Class 3 62 8 12.9% −16.25

Class 5 46 15 32.6% +47.38

Class 6 39 8 20.5% −13.76

Class 7 1 1 100% +1.88

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,002 301 30% 1.10 −116.58

2nd–3rd fav 1,832 279 15.2% 0.99 −372.49

4th–6th fav 2,194 173 7.9% 1.04 −475.00

7th+ in betting 3,169 76 2.4% 0.80 −1,702.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 2,359 226 9.6% −949.76

2m1f – 2m4f 2,159 258 11.9% −696.04

2m5f – 3m 1,146 130 11.3% −269.16

1m2f – 1m4f 751 68 9.1% −252.17

6f – 7f 710 54 7.6% −196.68

1m – 1m1f 685 49 7.2% −227.22

Over 3m 279 38 13.6% −16.12

Under 6f 108 6 5.6% −58.92

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 37 3 8.1% +3.67

2009 29 2 6.9% −14.00

2010 21 1 4.8% −4.00

2011 36 0 0% −36.00

2012 27 2 7.4% −14.00

2013 31 4 12.9% +11.50

2014 44 4 9.1% +30.00

2015 112 22 19.6% +62.58

2016 206 18 8.7% −48.45

2017 334 28 8.4% −197.37

2018 445 46 10.3% −134.99

2019 778 88 11.3% −193.94

2020 696 62 8.9% −257.48

2021 734 71 9.7% −191.51

2022 857 74 8.6% −419.89

2023 841 102 12.1% −238.91

2024 1,013 125 12.3% −219.93

2025 1,130 108 9.6% −468.57

2026 826 69 8.4% −334.78

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,409 437 9.9% −944.93

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 2,448 205 8.4% −806.97

11-13 runners 1,905 193 10.1% −573.53

17+ runners 1,715 98 5.7% −859.42

8-10 runners 1,399 185 13.2% −342.56

5-7 runners 668 129 19.3% −85.70

2-4 runners 62 19 30.6% +2.11

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Political Policy (IRE)from M Halford · then Matthew J Smith 69 9 24 28 Apr 19

Cristy's Call (IRE)from Lester Winters · then Ray Hackett 50 5 15 7 Apr 17

Pachmena (IRE)from John James Feane · then Matthew J Smith 49 2 14 8 Jul 25

Peaches And Cream (IRE)then Miss Laura Richardson 47 5 10 24 Jan 26

Railway Hurricane (IRE)then Paul W Flynn 47 4 14 17 Jan 25

Earls (IRE)from Garvan Donnelly 46 7 17 12 Oct 26

Dutch Schultz (GB)from Ralph Beckett 43 4 13 7 Jun 26

Bentham (IRE)then Sara Ender 42 4 11 4 Mar 23

Greenpanda (IRE) 41 3 13 28 Dec 21

Scenic Star (IRE)from G A Kingston · then Mark Shears 41 3 10 9 Aug 17

Final Orders (GB)from Garvan Donnelly 40 10 17 26 Aug 26

Je T'ai Porte (IRE)from M Halford 40 5 15 7 Feb 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 870 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 27 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A J Martin (2) and Garvan Donnelly (2); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for Matthew J Smith (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

7 from 37 18.9% · +8.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days18.9%

Lifetime base10.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1110108119111191299

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderKeith Donoghue

16% of all rides
13.8% SR · A/E 0.99

RiderRWSR£1

Keith Donoghue 1,339 185 13.8% −487.40

G. F. Carroll 913 83 9.1% −280.97

Jonathan Moore 590 64 10.8% −153.61

Robert Whearty 364 26 7.1% −77.29

Conor Stone-Walsh 324 25 7.7% −95.10

Sean Flanagan 287 36 12.5% −60.26

Conor McNamara 273 30 11% −71.75

Kieren Buckley 272 15 5.5% −170.68

J B Kane 250 27 10.8% −79.42

Conor Maxwell 240 17 7.1% −113.00

L P Dempsey 225 21 9.3% −53.71

Ger Fox 152 14 9.2% −60.42

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

833

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£17.3m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 125 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) — Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2025 · Grade 1

£364,314

Espoir D'allen (FR) — Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2019 · Grade 1

£253,434

Flooring Porter (IRE) — Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2022 · Grade 1

£182,878

Notable horses

Final Orders (GB) Darver Star (IRE) Political Policy (IRE) Flooring Porter (IRE) Stumptown (IRE) Jeremys Flame (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Walk In The Park (IRE) 12.6% · 26–206

Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,972 runs since 2008 (695 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 12.4% · 23–185

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,823 runs since 2008 (705 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.

Jeremy (USA) 13.2% · 21–159

Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.

Kalanisi (IRE) 13.2% · 17–129

Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,744 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.

Westerner (GB) 10.9% · 14–128

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,835 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Getaway (GER) 10.8% · 12–111

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,930 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,225 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,225 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 September 2005 to 26 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Marble Hill (FR)J: Mr D G Lavery Electric Galway (C & G) (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 3rd 2/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Mr Dibbs (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle24f · Heavy · 19 ran PU 40/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Silin Alainn (IRE)J: Kevin Sexton COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Hurdle24f · Heavy · 19 ran PU 22/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Stumptown (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue W.b. Gavin & Co. Handicap Hurdle22f · Heavy · 12 ran 1st 7/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Blues Street (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran PU 200/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Midfield Magic (IRE)J: Ben Harvey Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran 14th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Boycetown (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 20 ran 3rd 10/11F

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Ellis Redding (IRE)J: Ben Harvey Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 6th 20/1

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) If You Believe (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 1st 11/4

26 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Begorra Man (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue SANSERV Rated Novice Chase18f · Heavy · 7 ran 6th 7/1

25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Payslip (IRE)J: Mr D G Lavery Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 9/4

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Moscovite (FR)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Tom Dempsey Flooring 4-Y-O Fillies (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 4/6F

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Ole Ole (FR)J: Keith Donoghue Supermac's Rated Novice Hurdle20.5f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 11/4

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Liath Mor (IRE)J: Mr J R Martin COLM QUINN BMW Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 8 ran UR 125/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Simply Natural (GB)J: Keith Donoghue COLM QUINN BMW Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 5/2

25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Ten Gears (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle18f · Soft · 8 ran PU 5/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Dgalwaygallivantor (IRE)J: Mark Walsh COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 7th 9/1

25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Arcland (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford William Hill Challenge Series Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase19.5f · Soft · 13 ran PU 33/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Mint Boy (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Gerry Coyne Memorial Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 4th 10/1

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Little Scotch (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Gavin Cromwell's strike rate?: Gavin Cromwell has won 829 of 8,197 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Gavin Cromwell do best at?: Downpatrick by strike rate: 40 wins from 265 runners (15.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Gavin Cromwell?: Keith Donoghue, with 1,339 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 185 (13.8%).
Is Gavin Cromwell in form?: In the last 14 days: 37 runners, 7 winners, a strike rate of 18.9%. That is above the baseline of 10.1% since 2008.
What is Gavin Cromwell's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 8,190 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.