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Trainer profile

H Smyth

367 runners in the lifetime window · 52 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2025 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–367
Wins / Runs
3.3%
Strike rate
n=367
40 (11%)
Placed
0.74
Fair A/E
n=367 · 0.58 incl. margin
−227.75
£1 level stake
n=367 at SP · −62.1%
£125k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.74).

Deterministic profile computed from 367 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun Fresh horses: 3.6%
The read

The record is strongest at Downpatrick (6.9%, n=102), clear of the yard's 3.3% baseline. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −143.50 to a £1 stake over 216 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well off a 61-180-day break (7%, n=43). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 0% over 60 runners, 3.3pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.6%+0.3
n=83 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −42.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.3
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.3
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.3
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.3
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −1.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.8%−0.5
n=216 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −143.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Downpatrick 6.9% vs 3.3% · n=102
With horses switching code 0% vs 3.3% · n=77
Off a 61-180-day break 7% vs 3.3% · n=43
Off a 8-14-day break 0% vs 3.3% · n=60
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 3.3% · n=40
Off a 15-30-day break 5.8% vs 3.3% · n=104
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 287 10 3.5% −175.75
Chase 49 2 4.1% −21.00
NH Flat 20 0 0% −20.00
Flat 11 0 0% −11.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 132 5 3.8% −73.00
Soft 106 3 2.8% −74.00
Heavy 53 1 1.9% −32.00
Good to Soft 43 2 4.7% −30.75
Good to Firm 29 1 3.4% −14.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick 102 7 6.9% −26.75
Down Royal 78 1 1.3% −65.00
Navan 33 0 0% −33.00
Sligo 24 2 8.3% +6.00
Fairyhouse 23 0 0% −23.00
Naas 15 1 6.7% −7.00
Punchestown 11 0 0% −11.00
Bellewstown 10 0 0% −10.00
Ballinrobe 9 0 0% −9.00
Kilbeggan 8 1 12.5% +5.00
Wexford 8 0 0% −8.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Hexham 5 0 0% −5.00
Clonmel 4 0 0% −4.00
Limerick 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 12 0 0% −12.00
Class 4 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 1 10% 0.64 −6.75
2nd–3rd fav 23 2 8.7% 0.67 −9.50
4th–6th fav 73 3 4.1% 0.62 −44.50
7th+ in betting 261 6 2.3% 0.88 −167.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81% completed · 336 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 49 79.6% 2 2 6 0 0
Hurdle 287 81.2% 3 2 46 1 2
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Personal Shopper (GB)then Gavin Cromwell 63 1 12 26 Dec 16
Zagnzig (IRE)from W J Bryson · then S Wilson 45 1 7 13 Jul 23
Willyouwalkwithme (IRE) 30 4 7 28 May 24
Cantrell (IRE)from T M Walsh 30 1 7 19 Feb 13
Nevada Rose (IRE)from Thomas O'Neill · then S Michael Millar 18 0 0 4 Nov 16
Arizengo (GB)then R K Watson 11 0 0 15 Jul 19
Knockans Bridge (IRE) 10 0 0 27 May 16
Guest (IRE)from K J Condon 9 0 0 18 Jun 23
Hannah Huxwell (IRE) 9 0 0 23 Sep 17
West End Wonder (IRE)from Miss V J Nicholls 9 0 0 2 Dec 09
Curzon Queen (IRE)from Daniel James Murphy 8 0 0 30 Aug 24
Shanes Hill Glen (IRE) 8 0 0 10 Jul 20
All 52 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 52 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from S R B Crawford (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for S Michael Millar (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
003056048700
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTommy Treacy
9% of all rides
2.9% SR · A/E 1.03
RiderRWSR£1
Tommy Treacy 34 1 2.9% −19.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
12
Archived wins
£128k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mr Springer (IRE) — Dunbia Handicap Chase (0-116) Kilbeggan · Jun 2011
£7,590
Personal Shopper (GB) — Kilcawley Construction Sligo Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Sligo · May 2013
£7,418
Portnacoo (IRE) — My Pension Expert Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Downpatrick · Aug 2024
£6,490
Notable horses
Willyouwalkwithme (IRE) Portnacoo (IRE) Mr Springer (IRE) Personal Shopper (GB) Zagnzig (IRE) Cantrell (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
King's Theatre (IRE) 1.6% · 1–63
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Zagreb (USA) 2.2% · 1–45
Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,455 runs since 2008 (150 horses).
Morozov (USA) 16.3% · 7–43
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,315 runs since 2009 (155 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 434.
High Roller (IRE) 3.3% · 1–30
Progeny have won 7.2% of 334 runs since 2008 (35 horses).
Beneficial (GB) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Tikkanen (USA) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,014 runs since 2009 (170 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 412 · newest first

The latest 50 of 412 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 15 June 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
15 Jun 25 Downpatrick Portnacoo (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Download The Tote App Handicap Hurdle18f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 7th 8/1
09 May 25 Downpatrick Boldplay (IRE)J: Mr W R Hamilton Joe Rea Memorial Mares Flat Race18f · Good · 12 ran 9th 50/1
09 May 25 Downpatrick Bishbashbosh (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Road Stud Installations Handicap Hurdle (0-100)22f · Good · 11 ran 4th 11/1
30 Apr 25 Punchestown Portnacoo (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 25 ran PU 25/1
11 Oct 24 Downpatrick Bishbashbosh (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Denis Macauley Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95)22f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 6th 8/1
11 Oct 24 Downpatrick Portnacoo (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Pro Solar NI, Sam Downey Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-102)17.5f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 1st 9/4F
20 Sep 24 Downpatrick Portnacoo (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Caleb & Ezra Starkey Handicap Hurdle (80-95)18f · Good · 13 ran 1st 9/2
30 Aug 24 Down Royal Curzon Queen (IRE)J: Neil Ryan Kerry Foods Handicap Hurdle (80-109)17f · Good · 8 ran 8th 66/1
30 Aug 24 Down Royal Bishbashbosh (IRE)J: Neil Ryan Hovis (Prev. Premier Bakeries Ireland) Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 33/1
26 Aug 24 Downpatrick Portnacoo (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon My Pension Expert Handicap Hurdle (80-109)22f · Good · 9 ran 1st 15/2
21 Aug 24 Sligo Portnacoo (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler McDermott Farm Machinery Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20.5f · Soft · 14 ran 5th 10/1
21 Aug 24 Sligo Bishbashbosh (IRE)J: Simon Torrens End Of Summer Mares Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 80/1
13 Jul 24 Navan Curzon Queen (IRE)J: Neve Bennett Navan Racing Festival November 16th & 17th Handicap (47-65)10f · Good To Firm · 20 ran 20th 125/1
12 Jul 24 Dundalk (AW) Hi Sur Multi (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Gift & Art Gallery Dundalk Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 50/1
22 Jun 24 Down Royal Curzon Queen (IRE)J: James Ryan Mount Charles Handicap (47-65)13f · Good · 13 ran 11th 100/1
22 Jun 24 Down Royal Hi Sur Multi (GB)J: Gary Halpin Weatherbys Digital Solutions Handicap (47-70)10.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 150/1
16 Jun 24 Downpatrick Curzon Queen (IRE)J: John Shinnick Randox Handicap Hurdle (80-95)18f · Good · 14 ran PU 100/1
28 May 24 Ballinrobe Willyouwalkwithme (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Portwest Handicap Hurdle (80-109)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 14th 80/1
28 May 24 Ballinrobe Curzon Queen (IRE)J: John Shinnick Auray Assessors Fillies Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 13th 400/1
24 May 24 Downpatrick Willyouwalkwithme (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Frank And Brian Fitzsimons Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-109)19f · Good · 15 ran 15th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is H Smyth's strike rate?
H Smyth has won 12 of 367 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does H Smyth do best at?
Downpatrick by strike rate: 7 wins from 102 runners (6.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is H Smyth's Fair A/E?
0.74, from 367 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).