What is James Moffatt's strike rate?

James Moffatt has won 211 of 2,327 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does James Moffatt do best at?

Hexham by strike rate: 16 wins from 119 runners (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for James Moffatt?

Charlotte Jones, with 507 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 85 (16.8%).

Is James Moffatt in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is James Moffatt's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 2,323 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

James Moffatt

2,327 runners in the lifetime window · 204 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 5 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

211–2,327

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=2,327

581 (25%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=2,323 · 0.87 incl. margin

−466.30

£1 level stake

n=2,327 at SP · −20.0%

£1.98m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.4%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). New recruits from other yards win at 13% first time out (130 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,327 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug 35.7% when favourite Charlotte Jones: 16.8% from 507 New recruits: 13.1% Claiming riders: 11.6% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

It is weakest at Catterick (2.8% over 143 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 13.1% (n=130, Fair A/E 1.52), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.4% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.57). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 11.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.24 and +51.97 to a £1 stake over 826 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Charlotte Jones rides 22% of the entries and beats the yard's average (16.8% vs 9.1%, A/E 1.46) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (18%, n=100). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 1% over 104 runners, 8.1pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree (Dec 2015, £78,598). The stable star of the record: Chief Dan George (IRE) — 9 wins from 34 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.6%−2.5

n=605 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −114.67

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.1%+4.0

n=130 · A/E 1.52 · £1 +58.03

Debutants · first career start

9.3%+0.2

n=54 · A/E 1.49 · £1 −28.12

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.1%−5.0

n=49 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −36.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.7%−0.4

n=127 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +41.88

When favourite

35.7%

n=115 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −4.75

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.6%+2.5

n=826 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +51.97

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.4%−6.7

n=42 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −21.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 22.8% vs 9.1% · n=215

With Charlotte Jones 16.8% vs 9.1% · n=507

Off a 0-7-day break 18% vs 9.1% · n=100

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 1% vs 9.1% · n=104

With Graham Lee 0% vs 9.1% · n=34

At Catterick 2.8% vs 9.1% · n=143

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,475 128 8.7% −319.05

Chase 377 54 14.3% −12.41

Flat 372 15 4% −166.55

NH Flat 103 14 13.6% +31.71

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 850 75 8.8% −282.84

Good to Soft 555 47 8.5% −54.34

Soft 465 46 9.9% −139.01

Good to Firm 187 12 6.4% −39.75

Heavy 162 22 13.6% −5.86

Standard (AW) 104 9 8.7% +59.50

Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cartmel 658 84 12.8% −91.50

Carlisle 158 18 11.4% −24.21

Newcastle 151 11 7.3% +1.00

Catterick 143 4 2.8% −119.90

Ayr 140 6 4.3% −94.75

Hexham 119 16 13.4% −36.10

Sedgefield 119 13 10.9% +75.71

Kelso 116 10 8.6% −57.50

Haydock 113 3 2.7% −87.00

Perth 93 8 8.6% −1.00

Musselburgh 89 8 9% −17.50

Wetherby 79 6 7.6% −6.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 59 4 6.8% +10.50

Aintree 56 5 8.9% +24.50

Hamilton 53 4 7.5% −34.05

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 933 100 10.7% −163.27

Class 5 570 47 8.2% −120.80

Class 3 405 38 9.4% −36.91

Class 6 196 11 5.6% −65.55

Class 2 162 13 8% −73.77

Class 1 56 2 3.6% −1.00

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 149 50 33.6% 1.19 −7.49

2nd–3rd fav 452 71 15.7% 0.96 −81.81

4th–6th fav 784 67 8.5% 1.07 −31.00

7th+ in betting 942 23 2.4% 0.72 −346.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 779 80 10.3% −72.83

1m5f – 2m 560 46 8.2% −165.18

2m5f – 3m 497 46 9.3% −135.48

Over 3m 199 27 13.6% +24.24

1m2f – 1m4f 104 1 1% −101.80

Under 6f 66 5 7.6% +12.75

1m – 1m1f 64 5 7.8% +17.00

6f – 7f 58 1 1.7% −45.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 119 7 5.9% −25.50

2009 180 13 7.2% −28.65

2010 172 7 4.1% −30.00

2011 161 12 7.5% −70.75

2012 115 8 7% −28.64

2013 131 5 3.8% −107.50

2014 149 10 6.7% −69.00

2015 106 11 10.4% −31.00

2016 95 10 10.5% −13.75

2017 117 14 12% +6.75

2018 128 5 3.9% −62.00

2019 95 12 12.6% +77.41

2020 54 7 13% +18.33

2021 104 19 18.3% +37.23

2022 115 20 17.4% +30.72

2023 120 25 20.8% +59.32

2024 102 4 3.9% −87.09

2025 129 12 9.3% −64.84

2026 135 10 7.4% −77.34

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,677 141 8.4% −407.91

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 860 82 9.5% −136.55

11-13 runners 646 39 6% −231.01

5-7 runners 472 63 13.3% +6.38

14-16 runners 232 12 5.2% −94.00

17+ runners 62 3 4.8% +0.00

2-4 runners 55 12 21.8% −11.12

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.8% completed · 1,852 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 377 77.5% 11 11 63 0 0

Hurdle 1,475 86.6% 25 22 143 3 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Border Tale (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 53 3 16 25 May 13

Morning Royalty (IRE)from W P Mullins 50 8 13 30 Jun 19

Smart Ruler (IRE)from David Arbuthnot 49 5 17 3 Dec 18

Golden Town (IRE)from Saeed bin Suroor 48 4 16 23 Feb 23

Sam Lord (GB)from Alan King 45 4 14 27 May 15

Captain Brown (GB)from Evan Williams 43 3 11 7 Jan 19

Maybe I Wont (GB)from Lucinda Featherstone 41 1 16 29 Aug 16

Jelski (GER)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 38 6 9 23 Aug 25

Fantasy King (GB)from Charles O'Brien 35 2 11 20 Sep 17

Lough Kent (GB)from Nicky Henderson 33 5 9 4 Nov 20

Quel Elite (FR)then Miss G Walton 32 2 13 15 Apr 16

Ergo (FR) 32 3 5 27 Feb 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 204 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan King (4) and Charlie Appleby (2); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Robbie Llewellyn (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

671059131110191111

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCharlotte Jones

22% of all rides
16.8% SR · A/E 1.46

RiderRWSR£1

Charlotte Jones 507 85 16.8% +166.34

Brian Hughes 382 42 11% −116.01

Paddy Aspell 179 9 5% −76.15

Leah Noreci 120 6 5% −60.50

Henry Brooke 104 9 8.7% +9.00

Brian Harding 79 7 8.9% −38.84

Tony Kelly 50 5 10% −18.00

P J McDonald 42 5 11.9% −5.25

Wilson Renwick 38 2 5.3% −7.00

Callum Bewley 38 2 5.3% +0.00

Lucy Alexander 36 1 2.8% +15.00

Danny McMenamin 34 5 14.7% −10.34

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

231

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.18m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 25 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Highland Lodge (IRE) — Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (National Course) Aintree · Dec 2015 · Grade 3

£78,598

Chief Dan George (IRE) — Citroen C6 Sefton Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2007 · Class 1

£54,169

Chief Dan George (IRE) — William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cheltenham · Mar 2010 · Class 1

£45,608

Notable horses

Chief Dan George (IRE) Morning Royalty (IRE) Border Tale (GB) Jelski (GER) Altruism (IRE) Smart Ruler (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

King's Theatre (IRE) 16.9% · 13–77

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Selkirk (USA) 5.8% · 4–69

Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,371 runs since 2008 (333 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 228. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.7% from 143.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 7.8% · 5–64

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,863 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Observatory (USA) 7.5% · 4–53

Progeny have won 8.4% of 2,276 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.5% from 330.

Viking Ruler (AUS) 10.2% · 5–49

Progeny have won 8.6% of 606 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.7% from 109. Weakest on Soft going: 4.1% from 145. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 14.2% from 113.

Lomitas (GB) 7% · 3–43

Progeny have won 10.7% of 1,870 runs since 2008 (163 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.6% from 122. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 319. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.7% from 120.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,795 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,795 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Caughtinyourtrance (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Pricedup Boosts And Bog Cumberland Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 9/2

31 Oct 26 Ayr Secret Secret (IRE)J: Leah Noreci Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 8th 14/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Great Pepper (FR)J: Leah Noreci Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 14/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Jet Light (FR)J: Leah Noreci Bsb Structural Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 12/1

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Champagne Powder (FR)J: Leah Noreci Border Minstrel Dog Friendly Pub Maiden Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 20/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Dusky Days (IRE)J: Leah Noreci Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div II)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 5th 28/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Masekela (IRE)J: Miss Natasha Cookson Watch Racing Replays At racingtv.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 11th 50/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Got Grey (FR)J: Brian Hughes Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 25/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby My Chiquita (GB)J: Leah Noreci Over The Rainbow Alison Stretton Birthday Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 4th 5/1

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Masekela (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan Annual Members Of Hamilton Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 100/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Secret Secret (IRE)J: Leah Noreci Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 6th 16/1

24 Sep 26 Perth My Chiquita (GB)J: Leah Noreci Edinburgh Gin Owner Trainer Jockey Awards Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 11 ran 8th 6/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Judicial Review (IRE)J: Leah Noreci Equine Products UK Best Turned Out Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 9 ran PU 25/1

24 Sep 26 Perth Manhatane (FR)J: Leah Noreci House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 50/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Judicial Review (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24f · Good · 12 ran 11th 14/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Masterminding (IRE)J: Leah Noreci Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24f · Good · 12 ran 9th 12/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Caughtinyourtrance (IRE)J: Leah Noreci Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow David Whitaker Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 4/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Champagne Powder (FR)J: Leah Noreci Harvesting What Matters Most Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 5th 25/1

31 Aug 26 Cartmel Cuzco Du Mathan (FR)J: Leah Noreci Furness Rda Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 100/30

31 Aug 26 Cartmel Jack Sprat (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Fgh Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 14 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 14 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is James Moffatt's strike rate?: James Moffatt has won 211 of 2,327 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Moffatt do best at?: Hexham by strike rate: 16 wins from 119 runners (13.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Moffatt?: Charlotte Jones, with 507 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 85 (16.8%).
Is James Moffatt in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is James Moffatt's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 2,323 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.