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Trainer profile

Katie Stephens

240 runners in the lifetime window · 44 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2022 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
6–240
Wins / Runs
2.5%
Strike rate
n=240
37 (15%)
Placed
0.58
Fair A/E
n=240 · 0.49 incl. margin
−164.50
£1 level stake
n=240 at SP · −68.5%
£75,001
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.58).

Deterministic profile computed from 240 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 0.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.18 and −135.50 to a £1 stake over 140 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well on Soft going (9.1%, n=33) and in Chase races (7.1%, n=70). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.18 across 161 runners (0.6% strike, −156.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.5
n=55 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −55.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.5
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −37.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.5
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.5%+7.0
n=21 · A/E 2.24 · £1 +10.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0.7%−1.8
n=140 · A/E 0.18 · £1 −135.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Soft going 9.1% vs 2.5% · n=33
In Chase races 7.1% vs 2.5% · n=70
Over 1m5f – 2m 5.4% vs 2.5% · n=74
Off a 15-30-day break 5.3% vs 2.5% · n=75
In Hurdle races 0.6% vs 2.5% · n=161 · A/E 0.18
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 2.5% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 161 1 0.6% −156.50
Chase 70 5 7.1% +1.00
NH Flat 8 0 0% −8.00
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 112 1 0.9% −102.00
Good to Soft 40 0 0% −40.00
Soft 33 3 9.1% +2.50
Good to Firm 28 1 3.6% −11.00
Heavy 25 1 4% −12.00
Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot 65 1 1.5% −60.50
Taunton 33 1 3% −16.00
Exeter 27 0 0% −27.00
Worcester 27 1 3.7% −22.00
Wincanton 14 0 0% −14.00
Stratford 11 0 0% −11.00
Chepstow 10 0 0% −10.00
Ludlow 10 0 0% −10.00
Hereford 8 1 12.5% +18.00
Fontwell 8 0 0% −8.00
Uttoxeter 7 0 0% −7.00
Warwick 5 1 20% +8.00
Ffos Las 4 0 0% −4.00
Towcester 3 0 0% −3.00
Fakenham 2 1 50% +8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 116 3 2.6% −88.50
Class 4 98 3 3.1% −50.00
Class 3 21 0 0% −21.00
Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 13 2 15.4% 1.26 −3.50
4th–6th fav 60 2 3.3% 0.47 −33.00
7th+ in betting 164 2 1.2% 0.53 −125.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
78.4% completed · 231 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 70 77.1% 3 1 12 0 0
Hurdle 161 78.9% 1 0 33 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Royal Plaza (GB)from Olly Murphy 28 3 5 10 Jun 22
I'llhavealook (IRE) 20 1 9 21 May 17
Templier (IRE)from Gary Moore · then Sarah Humphrey 19 2 7 18 Jan 22
Top Of The Rocks (FR)from Tom Dascombe · then Oliver Greenall 19 0 3 14 Nov 19
La Madrina (IRE)from Henry Oliver 11 0 0 6 Jul 18
Equleus (GB)from Jeremy Gask 10 0 1 18 Mar 19
King Of The Story (IRE)then Polly Gundry 9 0 0 29 Jun 22
It's A Steal (IRE)from Alexandra Dunn 9 0 3 22 Apr 18
Twocute (IRE)from Tim Vaughan 9 0 2 25 Mar 10
Mr Tambourine Man (IRE)from Bernard Llewellyn 8 0 0 31 May 10
Zero Visibility (IRE)from Alexandra Dunn 7 0 2 26 Sep 16
Drummond (GB)from Bernard Llewellyn 7 0 2 7 Apr 16
All 44 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 44 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alexandra Dunn (3) and Bernard Llewellyn (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Tim Vaughan (3); 33 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0041000006048
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPage Fuller
16% of all rides
2.6% SR · A/E 0.60
RiderRWSR£1
Page Fuller 39 1 2.6% −34.50
Lee Stephens 34 0 0% −34.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
6
Archived wins
£75,001
Prize money
2021
Best season · 2 wins
Templier (IRE) — Appliance Solutions Ledbury Novices' Handicap Chase Hereford · Nov 2019 · Class 4
£4,809
Royal Plaza (GB) — Mama J 60th Birthday Celebration Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase Fakenham · Apr 2022 · Class 5
£4,575
Royal Plaza (GB) — Richard Wright Memorial Handicap Chase Worcester · Sep 2019 · Class 4
£4,289
Notable horses
Royal Plaza (GB) Templier (IRE) I'llhavealook (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Milan (GB) 3.2% · 1–31
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,877 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
King's Theatre (IRE) 10% · 3–30
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 10.5% · 2–19
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,642 runs since 2013 (842 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.7% from 329.
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,568 runs since 2008 (872 horses).
Craigsteel (GB) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,393 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 291. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 763.
Equiano (FR) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,542 runs since 2014 (549 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 240 · newest first

The latest 50 of 240 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 January 2009 to 29 June 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Jun 22 Worcester King Of The Story (IRE)J: Conor Ring Worcester Supports Racing Staff Week Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 9th 14/1
10 Jun 22 Newton Abbot Royal Plaza (GB)J: Page Fuller Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 22/1
11 May 22 Newton Abbot King Of The Story (IRE)J: Philip Armson St Austell Brewery Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 4th 16/1
19 Apr 22 Worcester King Of The Story (IRE)J: Conor Ring Download The At The Races App Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 6th 33/1
18 Apr 22 Fakenham Royal Plaza (GB)J: Bryan Carver Mama J 60th Birthday Celebration Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 9/1
03 Apr 22 Hereford King Of The Story (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan RoyalEquestrian Bedding & Manor Elite Horsebox Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 6th 100/1
14 Mar 22 Taunton Royal Plaza (GB)J: Rex Dingle William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran PU 16/1
27 Feb 22 Hereford King Of The Story (IRE)J: James Best Cazoo Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 50/1
18 Jan 22 Exeter Templier (IRE)J: James Best Racing TV Free For A Month Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 8th 7/1
05 Jan 22 Ffos Las Templier (IRE)J: James Best Vindico Think Purple Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 13 ran 3rd 5/4F
31 Dec 21 Warwick Templier (IRE)J: James Best Poundland - Proud To Support Warwick Racecourse Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 12 ran 1st 12/1
26 Dec 21 Fontwell King Of The Story (IRE)J: Ellis Collier Free Replays On attheraces.com Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 9 ran 9th 20/1
03 Dec 21 Exeter Templier (IRE)J: Finn Lambert betting.bet Pony Racing Authority Graduates Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys and Amateur Riders)Class 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 16/1
12 Nov 21 Worcester Templier (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Royal Equestrian Clothing Supports Kemp Hospice Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 25/1
10 Nov 21 Exeter King Of The Story (IRE)J: Lorcan Williams racingtv.com/freemonth Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 15th 200/1
26 Oct 21 Chepstow King Of The Story (IRE)J: Lorcan Williams Pickwick Bookmakers Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 14 ran 11th 125/1
29 Sep 21 Kempton (AW) Templier (IRE)J: Sophie Ralston MansionBet Proud To Support British Racing HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 100/1
20 Sep 21 Warwick Royal Plaza (GB)J: Nick Scholfield MansionBet Watch And Bet Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 5/1
12 Jul 21 Newton Abbot Royal Plaza (GB)J: Jack Tudor Tigers Selling HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Soft · 4 ran 2nd 28/1
30 Jun 21 Worcester Royal Plaza (GB)J: James Best Follow At The Races On Twitter Handicap Chase (Div 1)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 5th 13/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Katie Stephens's strike rate?
Katie Stephens has won 6 of 240 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Katie Stephens do best at?
Taunton by strike rate: 1 wins from 33 runners (3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Katie Stephens's Fair A/E?
0.58, from 240 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).