What is Rae Guest's strike rate?

Rae Guest has won 348 of 2,642 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Rae Guest do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 18 wins from 86 runners (20.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Rae Guest?

Chris Catlin, with 354 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 53 (15%).

What is Rae Guest's Fair A/E?

1.12, from 2,624 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Rae Guest

2,642 runners in the lifetime window · 324 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 349 days ago 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

348–2,642

Wins / Runs

13.2%

Strike rate

n=2,642

835 (32%)

Placed

1.12

Fair A/E

n=2,624 · 0.97 incl. margin

−489.17

£1 level stake

n=2,641 at SP · −18.5%

£3.18m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 140 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,642 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 41.3% when favourite Chris Catlin: 15% from 354 New recruits: 13.5% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

It is weakest at Goodwood (2.4% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=88, Fair A/E 0.59). Chris Catlin rides 13% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15%, A/E 1.24) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (29.8%, n=84) and on Firm going (29%, n=31). 15 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 32Red.com Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket (Oct 2008, £134,971). The stable star of the record: Mirza (GB) — 11 wins from 71 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

11.5%−1.7

n=401 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −97.81

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.5%+0.3

n=52 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −25.08

Debutants · first career start

8.5%−4.7

n=258 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −11.92

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.5%−8.7

n=88 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −62.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.3%−7.9

n=19 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −14.50

When favourite

41.3%

n=288 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +48.33

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.3%−0.9

n=333 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −81.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.3%−6.9

n=205 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −107.80

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 29.8% vs 13.2% · n=84

On Firm going 29% vs 13.2% · n=31

On last-time-out winners 21.1% vs 13.2% · n=332

With Silvestre De Sousa 23.5% vs 13.2% · n=68

At Goodwood 2.4% vs 13.2% · n=42

With first-time headgear 4.5% vs 13.2% · n=88

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,613 341 13.1% −493.50

Hurdle 15 3 20% +5.50

NH Flat 14 4 28.6% −1.17

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,011 122 12.1% −273.07

Good to Firm 591 83 14% −50.62

Good 495 67 13.5% −58.39

Soft 233 36 15.5% −13.57

Good to Soft 222 28 12.6% −43.39

Heavy 59 3 5.1% −44.67

Firm 31 9 29% −5.46

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 249 29 11.6% −84.93

Wolverhampton (AW) 221 32 14.5% −29.62

Lingfield (AW) 214 23 10.7% −22.55

Chelmsford (AW) 208 24 11.5% −89.22

Yarmouth 206 30 14.6% −67.73

Leicester 103 18 17.5% +30.75

Southwell (AW) 94 11 11.7% −33.00

Nottingham 88 11 12.5% −16.13

Newmarket 88 9 10.2% −4.50

Lingfield 87 16 18.4% +49.45

Windsor 87 12 13.8% −17.71

Brighton 86 18 20.9% +11.52

Bath 77 14 18.2% −19.96

Newmarket 74 5 6.8% −17.50

Salisbury 56 5 8.9% −21.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,052 157 14.9% −182.77

Class 6 684 91 13.3% −111.66

Class 4 405 54 13.3% −54.48

Class 1 205 13 6.3% −107.80

Class 3 149 19 12.8% −42.74

Class 2 133 13 9.8% +19.28

Class 7 9 1 11.1% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 343 134 39.1% 1.28 +52.83

2nd–3rd fav 673 128 19% 1.12 −35.30

4th–6th fav 880 65 7.4% 0.95 −187.70

7th+ in betting 745 21 2.8% 0.85 −319.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,128 152 13.5% −134.82

1m – 1m1f 512 56 10.9% −174.81

1m2f – 1m4f 474 61 12.9% −90.31

Under 6f 386 55 14.2% −75.24

1m5f – 2m 115 20 17.4% −9.49

2m1f – 2m4f 22 4 18.2% +0.50

2m5f – 3m 5 0 0% −5.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 130 20 15.4% −34.19

2009 216 21 9.7% −48.74

2010 155 15 9.7% −5.25

2011 114 16 14% −25.66

2012 179 36 20.1% +50.79

2013 202 31 15.3% −2.41

2014 162 24 14.8% −16.29

2015 166 19 11.4% −53.66

2016 134 13 9.7% −30.38

2017 142 18 12.7% −57.42

2018 168 20 11.9% −51.42

2019 145 18 12.4% −12.90

2020 133 23 17.3% −3.85

2021 145 16 11% −74.43

2022 155 25 16.1% +3.28

2023 144 18 12.5% −46.83

2024 127 12 9.4% −66.31

2025 25 3 12% −13.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,522 225 14.8% −168.83

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,000 131 13.1% −225.94

11-13 runners 682 79 11.6% −37.06

5-7 runners 589 102 17.3% −108.22

14-16 runners 258 16 6.2% −97.75

17+ runners 59 1 1.7% −42.00

2-4 runners 54 19 35.2% +21.80

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mirza (GB) 71 11 21 7 Nov 18

Aramis Grey (IRE)then Jack Jones 52 10 35 18 Dec 24

Roman Spinner (GB) 45 5 17 30 Jan 21

Land Of Winter (FR) 42 6 13 3 Nov 23

Show Stealer (GB) 40 9 16 16 Nov 19

Cry Havoc (IRE) 30 5 11 12 Oct 23

First Class (GB) 30 4 13 21 Apr 14

Kickingthelilly (GB) 27 5 9 20 Feb 14

Filligree (IRE) 27 5 10 27 Sep 10

After The Show (GB) 26 4 7 1 May 10

Kachumba (GB) 25 7 9 14 Sep 19

Gaselee (USA) 25 3 8 12 Nov 11

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 324 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 55 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard; 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

10161812101417121511149

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderChris Catlin

13% of all rides
15% SR · A/E 1.24

RiderRWSR£1

Chris Catlin 354 53 15% +8.54

David Probert 224 32 14.3% −40.31

Callum Shepherd 158 32 20.3% +5.40

Saleem Golam 86 5 5.8% −56.81

Luke Morris 82 11 13.4% −30.43

Martin Lane 69 8 11.6% +3.75

Silvestre De Sousa 68 16 23.5% +18.32

Martin Dwyer 68 8 11.8% +33.25

Martin Harley 66 14 21.2% +13.98

William Carson 65 10 15.4% −5.00

Shane Kelly 57 5 8.8% −2.63

Noel Garbutt 52 4 7.7% −28.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

401

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.68m

Prize money

2012

Best season · 36 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Serious Attitude (IRE) — 32Red.com Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) Newmarket · Oct 2008 · Group 1

£134,971

Show Stealer (GB) — Marathonbet Sportsbook Windsor Sprint Series Finale Handicap Windsor · Jul 2019 · Class 2

£46,193

Yomalo (IRE) — Ballyogan Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) Leopardstown · Jun 2006 · Group 3

£45,500

Notable horses

Mirza (GB) Aramis Grey (IRE) Show Stealer (GB) Kachumba (GB) War Chant (IRE) After The Show (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Oasis Dream (GB) 14.2% · 23–162

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,031 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 484. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 791.

Royal Applause (GB) 13.8% · 12–87

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Showcasing (GB) 12.7% · 10–79

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,638 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Camelot (GB) 12.9% · 9–70

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,721 runs since 2017 (758 horses).

Tamayuz (GB) 13.6% · 8–59

Progeny have won 10.4% of 5,188 runs since 2012 (401 horses).

Gutaifan (IRE) 17.9% · 10–56

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,766 runs since 2019 (302 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,255 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,255 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 20 November 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Rob Hornby BetMGM Fleur De Lys EBF Fillies' Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 13/2

06 Nov 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Heaven Knows (GB)J: Hector Crouch 'Timeform Sprint Series Qualifier' HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 11/2

04 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 15/2

29 Oct 25 Nottingham Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan PricedUp Robin Hood Stakes (Listed) (Formerly Known As The Ben Marshall Stakes)Class 1 · 8.5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 40/1

23 Oct 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Heaven Knows (GB)J: Oisin Murphy 'Timeform Sprint Series Qualifier' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 9/2

16 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Dylan Hogan attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 13/2

04 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Heaven Knows (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 14/1

03 Oct 25 Saint-Cloud (FR) Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan Prix Coronation () (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf)8f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 13/1

22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Arc 1MILLION Bonus Bigger Than Ever HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

12 Sep 25 Sandown Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: George Wood Rekorderlig Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 10 ran 1st 11/4

30 Aug 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas CCR Fireworks Spectacular HandicapClass 6 · 13.5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 11/2

22 Aug 25 Goodwood Heaven Knows (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 5th 11/2

21 Aug 25 Lingfield (AW) Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas Grange Travel Coach And Horses HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 15/2

11 Aug 25 Windsor Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas Fitzdares Telephone And Text Betting HandicapClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 11/2

01 Aug 25 Newmarket Inlet (GB)J: Connor Planas Ultimate Summer Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 11/2

28 Jul 25 Windsor Heaven Knows (GB)J: Connor Planas Fitzdares Sprint Series HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 5/1

05 Jul 25 Nottingham Heaven Knows (GB)J: Robert Havlin Joy Silvester Barbering HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 7/1

02 Jun 25 Windsor Heaven Knows (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Download The Raceday Ready App Confined HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 14/1

30 May 25 Haydock Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd Betfred 'Join Our Sports Club' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 1st 4/1F

14 May 25 Yarmouth Sunlit Uplands (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd Mental Health Awareness Week Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 2nd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Rae Guest's strike rate?: Rae Guest has won 348 of 2,642 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Rae Guest do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 18 wins from 86 runners (20.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Rae Guest?: Chris Catlin, with 354 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 53 (15%).
What is Rae Guest's Fair A/E?: 1.12, from 2,624 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.