What is Tom Ward's strike rate?

Tom Ward has won 131 of 1,423 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom Ward do best at?

Nottingham by strike rate: 8 wins from 39 runners (20.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tom Ward?

Tom Marquand, with 214 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (8.9%).

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 11 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Tom Ward's Fair A/E?

0.94, from 1,414 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tom Ward

1,423 runners in the lifetime window · 176 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 10.2% of 216 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 29 Oct 2026.

Runners today 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

131–1,423

Wins / Runs

9.2%

Strike rate

n=1,423

405 (29%)

Placed

0.94

Fair A/E

n=1,414 · 0.80 incl. margin

−562.75

£1 level stake

n=1,423 at SP · −39.5%

£1.93m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). New recruits from other yards win at 13% first time out (45 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,423 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Fresh horses: 10.6% 36.8% when favourite Tom Marquand: 8.9% from 214 New recruits: 13.3% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Nottingham (20.5%, n=39), clear of the yard's 9.2% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 13.3% (n=45, Fair A/E 1.48), but debutants struggle at 0.8% (n=132, Fair A/E 0.19). Tom Marquand rides 15% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.9%, A/E 0.84). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20.6%, n=34). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes at Newmarket (Oct 2023, £81,165). The stable star of the record: Diamond Bay (GB) — 9 wins from 58 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.6%+1.4

n=199 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −41.38

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.3%+4.1

n=45 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +0.75

Debutants · first career start

0.8%−8.4

n=132 · A/E 0.19 · £1 −123.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.1%−6.1

n=96 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −79.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.5%−1.7

n=40 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −18.50

When favourite

36.8%

n=106 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +3.03

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.3%−3.9

n=95 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −40.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.4%−3.8

n=37 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −19.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 19.5% vs 9.2% · n=128

At Nottingham 20.5% vs 9.2% · n=39

With debutants 0.8% vs 9.2% · n=132

Off a 0-7-day break 20.6% vs 9.2% · n=34

With Richard Kingscote 17.1% vs 9.2% · n=82

With C&D winners 15% vs 9.2% · n=160

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,411 131 9.3% −550.75

Hurdle 9 0 0% −9.00

NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 723 72 10% −228.85

Good 253 18 7.1% −154.26

Good to Firm 214 25 11.7% −61.78

Good to Soft 121 8 6.6% −48.75

Soft 75 7 9.3% −37.11

Heavy 27 1 3.7% −22.00

Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 298 29 9.7% −125.84

Wolverhampton (AW) 168 18 10.7% −37.42

Windsor 116 13 11.2% −28.51

Lingfield (AW) 107 11 10.3% −28.05

Newbury 104 5 4.8% −74.10

Goodwood 93 12 12.9% −16.67

Southwell (AW) 81 12 14.8% +12.06

Bath 54 2 3.7% −44.25

Chelmsford City (AW) 52 1 1.9% −42.00

Nottingham 39 8 20.5% +13.58

Salisbury 39 1 2.6% −36.75

Ascot 27 1 3.7% −21.00

Chepstow 26 0 0% −26.00

Sandown 25 2 8% −9.50

Leicester 18 0 0% −18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 512 48 9.4% −173.76

Class 6 322 32 9.9% −111.15

Class 4 321 32 10% −144.49

Class 3 132 9 6.8% −73.75

Class 2 90 7 7.8% −40.50

Class 1 37 2 5.4% −19.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 125 42 33.6% 1.18 −2.47

2nd–3rd fav 325 47 14.5% 0.89 −62.68

4th–6th fav 491 34 6.9% 0.92 −144.60

7th+ in betting 482 8 1.7% 0.55 −353.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Diamond Bay (GB) 58 9 19 18 Aug 26

Capote's Dream (IRE)from Joseph G Murphy 47 6 18 23 May 26

Farasi Lane (IRE)then Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 37 5 12 16 Oct 23

Tintoretto (IRE)from John Joseph Murphy 34 4 10 24 Jun 25

Lady Dreamer (IRE) 31 6 15 30 Jun 25

Shady Bay (IRE) 25 4 7 27 Oct 26

Roman Mist (IRE)then Archie Watson 24 5 14 27 Oct 22

Culture (FR)from George Baker · then A Lopez 19 2 6 25 Oct 22

Crystal Flyer (GB)then Ben Haslam 18 3 6 20 Nov 25

Our Golden One (IRE) 16 2 6 12 Oct 25

Woodhay Wonder (GB) 16 5 8 11 Oct 25

Whizz By (GB) 15 4 9 7 Oct 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 176 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive; 47 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole (2) and Michael Blake (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 11

Only 11 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

7161311101010119557

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Marquand

15% of all rides
8.9% SR · A/E 0.84

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Marquand 214 19 8.9% −87.90

Sean Levey 209 22 10.5% −86.79

Richard Kingscote 82 14 17.1% −14.54

Hollie Doyle 69 8 11.6% −26.95

Kieran Shoemark 63 3 4.8% −43.00

Daniel Muscutt 60 5 8.3% −36.92

Trevor Whelan 53 4 7.5% −16.25

Alec Voikhansky 47 5 10.6% −3.00

David Probert 45 2 4.4% −37.00

Hector Crouch 45 7 15.6% +19.23

Rob Hornby 42 2 4.8% −26.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→

131

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.93m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 30 wins

Woodhay Wonder (GB) — 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race) Newmarket · Oct 2023 · Class 2

£81,165

Woodhay Wonder (GB) — 100,000 Tattersalls Somerville Auction Stakes (GBB Race) Newmarket · Aug 2023 · Class 2

£54,110

Woodhay Wonder (GB) — Sky Bet Extra Places Every Day Handicap Newmarket · May 2024 · Class 2

£38,655

Notable horses

Diamond Bay (GB) Capote's Dream (IRE) Lady Dreamer (IRE) Farasi Lane (IRE) Roman Mist (IRE) Woodhay Wonder (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

New Bay (GB) 17.3% · 17–98

Progeny have won 14.3% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.

Dream Ahead (USA) 11% · 8–73

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,698 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.

Dandy Man (IRE) 12.7% · 7–55

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,952 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Mehmas (IRE) 12.7% · 7–55

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,174 runs since 2008 (750 horses).

Belardo (IRE) 10.2% · 5–49

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,718 runs since 2008 (280 horses).

Magna Grecia (IRE) 13.3% · 6–45

Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,481 runs since 2008 (170 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.4% from 170.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,423 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,423 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 August 2019 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Perfect Hope (GB)J: Sean Levey ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 2nd 6/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Galileo Island (IRE)J: Sean Levey All-Weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 25/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Perfect Location (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Oakenson Ltd Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 40/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Singing Blues (IRE)J: Kieran Shoemark Bath Luxury Toilet Hire Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 50/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Hot Port (IRE)J: George Wood David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 13/2

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Outback Legend (IRE)J: Kieran Shoemark Racing TV Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 10th 25/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Shady Bay (IRE)J: David Probert Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 4 · 9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 50/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Constella (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 11/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mistral Madness (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Blue Orbit (IRE)J: Luke Morris Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 6/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Knights Gold (IRE)J: Saffie Osborne Djsn Ltd Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 13/2

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Lola (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 22/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ruby's Profit (IRE)J: Kieran Shoemark attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 33/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Heno (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 16/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Glenna (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 2nd 11/4F

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Magnatura (IRE)J: Sean Levey Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 6th 13/2

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Lieutenant Kije (GB)J: Kieran Shoemark Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 20/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Singing Blues (IRE)J: Sean Levey British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 150/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Melody De Vega (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani Gents Night Saturday 24th October Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 4/1

10 Oct 26 Newmarket Constella (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Triple Time Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)Class 2 · 7f · Good · 6 ran 4th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 19 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Ward's strike rate?: Tom Ward has won 131 of 1,423 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Ward do best at?: Nottingham by strike rate: 8 wins from 39 runners (20.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tom Ward?: Tom Marquand, with 214 runners since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (8.9%).
Is Tom Ward in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 11 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom Ward's Fair A/E?: 0.94, from 1,414 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.