What is Adrian Nicholls's strike rate?

Adrian Nicholls has won 113 of 1,224 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Nicholls do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 12 wins from 69 runners (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian Nicholls?

Barry McHugh, with 281 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (8.9%).

Is Adrian Nicholls in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Adrian Nicholls's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 1,214 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Nicholls

1,224 runners in the lifetime window · 177 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

113–1,224

Wins / Runs

9.2%

Strike rate

n=1,224

317 (26%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=1,214 · 0.82 incl. margin

−364.06

£1 level stake

n=1,224 at SP · −29.7%

£1.25m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). With a claiming rider up the record reads 13% (318 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,224 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jul 28.7% when favourite Barry McHugh: 8.9% from 281 New recruits: 9.7% Claiming riders: 13.2% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (17.4%, n=69), clear of the yard's 9.2% baseline. It is weakest at Southwell (AW) (3.1% over 64 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 13.2% (n=318, Fair A/E 1.11), but debutants struggle at 1% (n=105, Fair A/E 0.26). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 8.8% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.22 and +10.00 to a £1 stake over 147 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Barry McHugh rides 23% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.9%, A/E 0.93). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 4.9% over 284 runners, 4.3pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Simpex Express 'Dash' Handicap at Epsom Downs (Jun 2022, £50,960). The stable star of the record: Hurt You Never (IRE) — 15 wins from 74 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.8%−0.4

n=147 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +10.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.7%+0.5

n=72 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +14.00

Debutants · first career start

1%−8.2

n=105 · A/E 0.26 · £1 −90.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

11.9%+2.7

n=42 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +2.88

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.4%+0.2

n=32 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −3.50

When favourite

28.7%

n=87 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −16.79

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.2%+4.0

n=318 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −65.65

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.1%−5.1

n=49 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −38.30

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With debutants 1% vs 9.2% · n=105

At Hamilton 17.4% vs 9.2% · n=69

On last-time-out winners 16.5% vs 9.2% · n=109

At Southwell (AW) 3.1% vs 9.2% · n=64

On Standard (AW) going 4.9% vs 9.2% · n=284

At Newcastle (AW) 4.3% vs 9.2% · n=141

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 337 37 11% −45.66

Standard (AW) 284 14 4.9% −122.67

Good to Firm 276 34 12.3% −58.46

Soft 151 12 7.9% −40.38

Good to Soft 148 13 8.8% −86.89

Heavy 28 3 10.7% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 141 6 4.3% −38.50

Thirsk 110 7 6.4% −69.75

Redcar 99 4 4% −60.50

Ripon 92 6 6.5% −26.13

Doncaster 73 5 6.8% −37.12

Beverley 71 8 11.3% −30.97

Hamilton 69 12 17.4% −5.28

Catterick 68 10 14.7% −5.12

Southwell (AW) 64 2 3.1% −55.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 48 3 6.3% −15.50

Carlisle 45 5 11.1% +12.00

Nottingham 40 4 10% −27.40

Pontefract 36 1 2.8% −29.50

Haydock 35 3 8.6% −24.67

York 35 5 14.3% +28.70

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 497 43 8.7% −158.71

Class 6 376 39 10.4% −129.17

Class 4 202 20 9.9% −17.96

Class 2 55 3 5.5% −33.50

Class 1 49 2 4.1% −38.30

Class 3 39 6 15.4% +19.58

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 111 29 26.1% 0.95 −21.13

2nd–3rd fav 259 43 16.6% 1.04 −46.43

4th–6th fav 407 27 6.6% 0.84 −134.50

7th+ in betting 447 14 3.1% 0.99 −162.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hurt You Never (IRE) 74 15 27 15 Sep 26

Abate (GB)from Roger Charlton · then George Baker 71 10 26 9 May 25

Thornaby Pearl (GB)from Jason Ward 54 9 20 21 Sep 26

Tees Spirit (GB)from Jason Ward 44 9 16 7 Nov 26

Tees George (GB) 36 3 15 19 Sep 26

Ingleby Archie (IRE) 35 5 16 26 Oct 26

Sir Lancelott (GB)from Brian Barr 33 1 10 27 Mar 19

Burj Malinka (IRE)from Eddie & Patrick Harty 32 4 11 20 Jun 24

The Big House (IRE)from Noel Wilson 32 4 12 4 Apr 22

Tees Aggregates (IRE) 30 4 7 16 Oct 26

Sfumato (GB)from Iain Jardine · then Ollie Pears 23 3 7 19 Oct 20

Due Consideration (GB) 19 1 9 3 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 177 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Henry De Bromhead (2) and Jason Ward (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Kieran P Cotter (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6646151212611576

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBarry McHugh

23% of all rides
8.9% SR · A/E 0.93

RiderRWSR£1

Barry McHugh 281 25 8.9% −120.00

Connor Murtagh 132 10 7.6% −55.87

Andrew Mullen 103 10 9.7% −4.42

Mia Nicholls 103 14 13.6% +2.89

Jack Nicholls 76 10 13.2% −23.18

Harrison Shaw 75 5 6.7% −28.00

Laura Coughlan 60 7 11.7% −21.77

Paddy Mathers 59 5 8.5% −13.50

Connor Beasley 42 5 11.9% +8.75

Jack Garritty 40 2 5% −28.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

113

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.25m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 20 wins

Tees Spirit (GB) — Simpex Express 'Dash' Handicap (Heritage) Epsom Downs · Jun 2022 · Class 2

£50,960

Mo Celita (IRE) — Prix Club Hipico Santiago - Prix Moonlight Cloud () (3yo) (Straight Course) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2021 · Listed

£24,554

Tees Spirit (GB) — Abergwaun Stakes (Listed) Tipperary · Aug 2022 · Listed

£22,125

Notable horses

Hurt You Never (IRE) Abate (GB) Thornaby Pearl (GB) Tees Spirit (GB) Mo Celita (IRE) Ingleby Archie (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 17.7% · 17–96

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,989 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Bated Breath (GB) 13.8% · 13–94

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,180 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 857.

Swiss Spirit (GB) 16.4% · 9–55

Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,650 runs since 2017 (243 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.5% from 245. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.7% from 136.

Pearl Secret (GB) 16.7% · 9–54

Progeny have won 9.8% of 898 runs since 2020 (73 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13% from 131. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.6% from 308. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.6% from 337.

Outstrip (GB) 7.9% · 3–38

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,290 runs since 2019 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 635. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 265.

Coach House (IRE) 11.4% · 4–35

Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,482 runs since 2018 (145 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,224 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,224 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 August 2017 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Tees Spirit (GB)J: Jack Garritty Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 100/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Jumping's Back At Leicester Tuesday 17th November Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 10/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Thornaby Annie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 6th 20/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 15/8F

16 Oct 26 Redcar Tees Aggregates (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Luna Lacy (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Market Cross Jewellers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 7/2

08 Oct 26 Ayr Scheffler (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Outcider Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Heavy · 13 ran 13th 50/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Tees Spirit (GB)J: Jack Garritty Watch Race Replays On Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 13th 80/1

01 Oct 26 Nottingham Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 8/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Luna Lacy (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Weddings At Western House Hotel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 10/1

26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Tees Spirit (GB)J: Jack Garritty Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 66/1

23 Sep 26 Redcar Tees Aggregates (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Racingtv/freetrial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 17/2

21 Sep 26 Hamilton Thornaby Pearl (GB)J: Jake Dickson Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 10/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Tees George (GB)J: Oliver Carmichael Get The Inside Track With Raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 5/1

17 Sep 26 Pontefract Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Matthew Lloyd Slater Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 7th 14/1

15 Sep 26 Redcar Hurt You Never (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 1st 16/1

14 Sep 26 Thirsk Thornaby Annie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty decronhorsecare.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 8th 15/2

12 Sep 26 Musselburgh Luna Lacy (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 5th 33/1

03 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Hurt You Never (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 22/1

02 Sep 26 Hamilton Scheffler (IRE)J: Connor Beasley #cleanstay At Hampton By Hilton Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 16 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adrian Nicholls's strike rate?: Adrian Nicholls has won 113 of 1,224 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Nicholls do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 12 wins from 69 runners (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Nicholls?: Barry McHugh, with 281 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (8.9%).
Is Adrian Nicholls in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adrian Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 1,214 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.