What is Adrian Keatley's strike rate?

Adrian Keatley has won 259 of 2,417 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Keatley do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 14 wins from 65 runners (21.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian Keatley?

Danny Sheehy, with 152 runners since 2008 — 6% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (8.6%).

Is Adrian Keatley in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Adrian Keatley's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 2,407 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Keatley

2,417 runners in the lifetime window · 299 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.6% of 285 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 4 Nov 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

259–2,417

Wins / Runs

10.7%

Strike rate

n=2,417

678 (28%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=2,407 · 0.91 incl. margin

−639.44

£1 level stake

n=2,417 at SP · −26.5%

£4.10m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 130 runners a season, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). New recruits from other yards win at 17% first time out (101 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,417 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb 39.5% when favourite Danny Sheehy: 8.6% from 152 New recruits: 16.8% Claiming riders: 10.9% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (21.5%, n=65), clear of the yard's 10.7% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 16.8% (n=101, Fair A/E 1.51), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.9% (n=144, Fair A/E 1.04). Danny Sheehy rides 6% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (8.6% vs 10.7%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20.5%, n=171). 10 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas at Curragh (May 2016, £171,000). The stable star of the record: Kihavah (GB) — 9 wins from 47 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.6%−1.1

n=342 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −120.36

New recruits · first run for the yard

16.8%+6.1

n=101 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +2.76

Debutants · first career start

7.6%−3.1

n=198 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +6.45

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.4%−2.3

n=131 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −51.38

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.3%−2.4

n=156 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −54.49

When favourite

39.5%

n=215 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +17.09

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.9%+0.2

n=779 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −152.07

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.9%−3.8

n=144 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −50.95

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Brian Hughes 30.4% vs 10.7% · n=69

With Henry Brooke 30.6% vs 10.7% · n=36

With Sean Corby 24.4% vs 10.7% · n=41

Off a 0-7-day break 20.5% vs 10.7% · n=171

At Catterick 21.5% vs 10.7% · n=65

On last-time-out winners 18.7% vs 10.7% · n=252

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,012 190 9.4% −632.47

Hurdle 308 47 15.3% −49.22

Chase 72 15 20.8% +13.05

NH Flat 25 7 28% +29.20

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 624 86 13.8% −16.32

Standard (AW) 505 42 8.3% −231.00

Soft 432 42 9.7% −132.87

Good to Firm 363 28 7.7% −186.55

Good to Soft 329 42 12.8% −0.85

Heavy 164 19 11.6% −71.85

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ayr 187 34 18.2% +32.58

Dundalk (AW) 141 7 5% −55.50

Newcastle (AW) 134 14 10.4% −75.54

Curragh 105 7 6.7% −27.50

York 99 6 6.1% −27.75

Wolverhampton (AW) 94 4 4.3% −70.00

Ripon 84 13 15.5% +11.43

Naas 69 6 8.7% −18.35

Navan 67 7 10.4% −37.83

Beverley 67 5 7.5% −43.42

Catterick 65 14 21.5% +72.75

Doncaster 65 7 10.8% −23.12

Thirsk 55 3 5.5% −36.00

Musselburgh 51 5 9.8% −9.50

Hamilton 50 5 10% −37.48

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 465 68 14.6% −120.71

Class 5 411 60 14.6% −25.50

Class 6 298 35 11.7% −67.05

Class 2 206 11 5.3% −124.05

Class 3 159 25 15.7% +9.75

Class 1 147 10 6.8% −53.95

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 251 90 35.9% 1.20 +0.84

2nd–3rd fav 496 94 19% 1.16 −6.78

4th–6th fav 714 55 7.7% 1.01 −93.00

7th+ in betting 956 20 2.1% 0.65 −540.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mo Henry (GB)from Richard Whitaker 64 4 20 24 Aug 21

Wobwobwob (IRE) 60 7 19 27 Oct 26

Shalaa Asker (GB)then Charlie Wallis 58 7 21 29 Sep 24

Another Baar (GB) 50 8 18 19 Oct 26

Belvedere Blast (IRE)from Nigel Tinkler 50 7 13 26 Sep 26

Kihavah (GB)from K J Condon 47 9 20 24 May 26

Drumconnor Lad (IRE) 45 8 17 22 Feb 23

Honour Your Dreams (FR)then Michael Appleby 35 2 11 27 Jun 24

Champagne Terri (IRE)then Ian O'Connor 29 4 9 9 May 22

Compton's Finale (GB) 29 1 9 26 Oct 21

Dungar Glory (IRE) 28 4 9 21 Sep 23

The Mcgregornator (IRE) 28 2 4 12 Nov 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 299 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Charles Hills (2) and Peter McCreery (2); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard; 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

3 from 10

Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1613812101514799610

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDanny Sheehy

6% of all rides
8.6% SR · A/E 1.13

RiderRWSR£1

Danny Sheehy 152 13 8.6% −31.50

Oisin McSweeney 151 21 13.9% −50.78

Ryan Sexton 142 15 10.6% −61.37

M. P. Sheehy 116 13 11.2% −40.56

Dougie Costello 73 6 8.2% −9.75

Leigh Roche 71 1 1.4% −64.50

Shane Foley 70 8 11.4% −13.75

Brian Hughes 69 21 30.4% +31.51

Lewis Edmunds 68 6 8.8% +3.00

Gary Carroll 43 2 4.7% +8.00

Michael Hussey 41 0 0% −41.00

Sean Corby 41 10 24.4% +40.88

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→

259

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.10m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 43 wins

Jet Setting (IRE) — Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (Group 1) Curragh · May 2016 · Group 1

£171,000

Kihavah (GB) — Virgin Bet Queen's Cup (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) Musselburgh · Apr 2025 · Class 2

£51,540

Jet Setting (IRE) — Coolmore Stud Home Of Champions Concorde Stakes (group 3) Tipperary · Oct 2016 · Group 3

£39,825

Notable horses

Kihavah (GB) Another Baar (GB) Drumconnor Lad (IRE) Gale Mahler (IRE) Aisling Oscar (IRE) Wobwobwob (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 5.3% · 4–75

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,981 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Mayson (GB) 15.3% · 11–72

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,388 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Adaay (IRE) 12.3% · 8–65

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,966 runs since 2020 (192 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6% from 499.

Prince Of Lir (IRE) 12.3% · 8–65

Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,383 runs since 2020 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 200.

Shalaa (IRE) 12.1% · 7–58

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,445 runs since 2020 (279 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.8% from 142.

Bushranger (IRE) 7% · 4–57

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,449 runs since 2013 (300 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,417 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,417 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 May 2014 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Wetherby Sledgehammer (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Bet365 Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 1st 4/5F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Star Material (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 14/1

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Vietnorm (IRE)J: Oakley Brown Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 8th 4/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Wobwobwob (IRE)J: Barry McHugh Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 1st 6/1

24 Oct 26 Kelso Newtown Rambler (IRE)J: Oakley Brown luckytiger.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Nuts Well Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 4 ran 1st 5/2

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Indian River (IRE)J: Brian Hughes Masterson Holdings Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 3/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Wobwobwob (IRE)J: Barry McHugh William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 11 ran 3rd 20/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Star Material (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 33/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Roberto Caro (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 6/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Rapide Vega (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 9/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Another Baar (GB)J: M. P. Sheehy William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 2/1F

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Tyrrhenian Thunder (GB)J: M. P. Sheehy British Stallion Studs Ebf Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 11/2

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Irish Incentive (IRE)J: Oisin McSweeney Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 13/2

10 Oct 26 Hexham Sledgehammer (IRE)J: Charlie Maggs Tynedale Rfc Community Rugby Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 1st 15/8F

10 Oct 26 Hexham Tiddesley Wood (GB)J: Brian Hughes Cast Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 4th 6/4F

10 Oct 26 Newmarket Clash Of Hearts (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 6th 150/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Northern Milan (IRE)J: Oakley Brown Project Rugby Community Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 3 ran PU 7/4

09 Oct 26 York Influencer Man (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Parsonage Hotel And Cloisters Spa Nursery Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 12/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Aisling Oscar (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Download The At The Races App Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jojo's Legacy (IRE)J: M. P. Sheehy Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 1) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Adrian Keatley's strike rate?: Adrian Keatley has won 259 of 2,417 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Keatley do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 14 wins from 65 runners (21.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Keatley?: Danny Sheehy, with 152 runners since 2008 — 6% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (8.6%).
Is Adrian Keatley in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adrian Keatley's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 2,407 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.