What is Derek Shaw's strike rate?

Derek Shaw has won 382 of 5,223 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Derek Shaw do best at?

Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 57 wins from 529 runners (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Derek Shaw?

Paddy Mathers, with 583 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 44 (7.5%).

Is Derek Shaw in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Derek Shaw's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 5,199 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Derek Shaw

5,223 runners in the lifetime window · 390 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 95% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

382–5,223

Wins / Runs

7.3%

Strike rate

n=5,223

1,136 (22%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=5,199 · 0.83 incl. margin

−1,957.22

£1 level stake

n=5,223 at SP · −37.5%

£2.49m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 270 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,223 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–May 34.6% when favourite Paddy Mathers: 7.5% from 583 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0.5% (n=190, Fair A/E 0.28). The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −120.25 to a £1 stake over 144 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Paddy Mathers rides 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.5%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 7 (16.7%, n=78) and off a 0-7-day break (12.2%, n=764). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0.9% over 222 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Loyalty (GB) — 19 wins from 101 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.2%−4.1

n=618 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −286.45

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.4%−1.9

n=168 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −80.50

Debutants · first career start

0.5%−6.8

n=190 · A/E 0.28 · £1 −156.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.8%−4.5

n=144 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −120.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.3%−3.0

n=138 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −87.00

When favourite

34.6%

n=257 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +34.34

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.9%−1.4

n=1,151 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −598.28

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.3

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 15.7% vs 7.3% · n=395

In Class 7 16.7% vs 7.3% · n=78

With debutants 0.5% vs 7.3% · n=190

Off a break of 180+ days 0.9% vs 7.3% · n=222

With Neil Callan 15.9% vs 7.3% · n=44

Off a 0-7-day break 12.2% vs 7.3% · n=764

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 4,981 375 7.5% −1,768.22

Hurdle 190 6 3.2% −146.00

Chase 28 1 3.6% −19.00

NH Flat 24 0 0% −24.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 3,848 324 8.4% −1,264.76

Good 505 22 4.4% −250.25

Good to Soft 289 9 3.1% −161.00

Good to Firm 285 19 6.7% −57.79

Soft 231 6 2.6% −177.75

Heavy 60 1 1.7% −45.00

Firm 5 1 20% −0.67

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 1,445 114 7.9% −565.17

Southwell (AW) 958 88 9.2% −176.19

Kempton 574 47 8.2% −240.21

Chelmsford (AW) 529 57 10.8% −118.39

Lingfield (AW) 202 14 6.9% −98.13

Nottingham 179 4 2.2% −123.17

Newcastle (AW) 140 4 2.9% −66.67

Doncaster 138 10 7.2% +41.00

Leicester 120 5 4.2% −35.50

Yarmouth 99 3 3% −71.75

Beverley 91 5 5.5% −55.67

Haydock 64 1 1.6% −59.00

Newmarket 48 0 0% −48.00

Southwell 43 2 4.7% −26.50

Uttoxeter 38 1 2.6% −32.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 2,420 188 7.8% −815.77

Class 5 1,596 102 6.4% −710.94

Class 4 733 59 8% −289.22

Class 3 236 12 5.1% −82.17

Class 2 144 8 5.6% −40.50

Class 7 78 13 16.7% −2.62

Class 1 16 0 0% −16.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 327 101 30.9% 1.24 +17.34

2nd–3rd fav 775 127 16.4% 1.05 −114.06

4th–6th fav 1,523 97 6.4% 0.83 −613.50

7th+ in betting 2,598 57 2.2% 0.76 −1,247.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 1,974 130 6.6% −557.53

Under 6f 1,880 163 8.7% −657.33

1m – 1m1f 732 60 8.2% −288.49

1m2f – 1m4f 259 10 3.9% −200.50

1m5f – 2m 244 11 4.5% −187.37

2m1f – 2m4f 97 5 5.2% −46.00

2m5f – 3m 29 2 6.9% −21.00

Over 3m 8 1 12.5% +1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 485 45 9.3% −145.05

2009 321 23 7.2% −163.71

2010 257 24 9.3% +0.00

2011 316 21 6.6% −123.00

2012 338 26 7.7% −127.90

2013 380 30 7.9% −156.33

2014 332 24 7.2% −128.70

2015 346 19 5.5% −191.42

2016 267 21 7.9% −41.67

2017 299 26 8.7% −33.72

2018 242 22 9.1% −57.92

2019 309 23 7.4% −68.99

2020 165 5 3% −133.00

2021 227 11 4.8% −104.92

2022 237 22 9.3% −109.25

2023 223 14 6.3% −112.80

2024 219 13 5.9% −153.97

2025 165 10 6.1% −19.75

2026 95 3 3.2% −85.12

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 4,220 341 8.1% −1,281.49

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,103 179 8.5% −597.25

11-13 runners 1,778 108 6.1% −752.57

5-7 runners 799 70 8.8% −406.93

14-16 runners 408 16 3.9% −169.05

17+ runners 103 6 5.8% −6.00

2-4 runners 32 3 9.4% −25.42

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Dynamo Walt (IRE) 106 14 32 16 Mar 21

Loyalty (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute 101 19 38 7 May 19

Baby Strange (GB)from P A Blockley 94 7 22 29 Oct 14

Top Boy (GB)then Tony Carroll 93 7 26 27 May 19

Gustav Graves (GB)from Mark Loughnane 88 10 32 27 Oct 26

Borough Boy (IRE) 86 8 26 6 Dec 17

Shawkantango (GB) 82 12 25 14 Jan 16

Le Manege Enchante (IRE) 65 4 17 3 Jan 21

Climaxfortackle (IRE) 65 5 19 3 Nov 14

Hammer Gun (USA)from Sir Michael Stoute 64 12 19 3 Jan 21

Samphire Coast (GB) 63 8 18 9 Dec 21

Prince Of Passion (CAN)from Michael Dods 62 6 15 4 Jan 15

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 390 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 23 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 32 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from K R Burke (2) and P A Blockley (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard; 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 7

Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

11911996253449

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderPaddy Mathers

11% of all rides
7.5% SR · A/E 1.12

RiderRWSR£1

Paddy Mathers 583 44 7.5% −180.04

Cam Hardie 314 22 7% −115.30

Dale Swift 231 22 9.5% −68.33

Martin Lane 213 21 9.9% −56.47

Adam McLean 201 11 5.5% −110.58

Lewis Edmunds 160 11 6.9% −84.84

Joanna Mason 149 18 12.1% +24.83

Tony Hamilton 141 17 12.1% −12.92

Joe Fanning 133 17 12.8% +12.75

Martin Dwyer 113 9 8% −51.37

Noel Garbutt 112 7 6.3% +5.00

Luke Morris 110 8 7.3% −55.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

483

Archived wins

£2.94m

Prize money

2007

Best season · 51 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Top Boy (GB) — BetBright Trophy (Handicap) York · May 2014 · Class 2

£31,125

Welliesinthewater (IRE) — totepool Supporting Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · May 2017 · Class 2

£19,407

Dynamo Walt (IRE) — Irish Lotto At Totesport.com Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Aug 2018 · Class 3

£16,173

Notable horses

Loyalty (GB) Dynamo Walt (IRE) Shawkantango (GB) Hammer Gun (USA) Gustav Graves (GB) Welliesinthewater (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Piccolo (GB) 8.7% · 17–196

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Medicean (GB) 13.8% · 26–189

Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 8% · 15–188

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,030 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 9.4% · 13–138

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,844 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Acclamation (GB) 12.1% · 15–124

Progeny have won 10% of 19,697 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.

Bobby's Kitten (USA) 9.6% · 10–104

Progeny have won 8% of 1,671 runs since 2008 (144 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,548 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,548 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: Robert Havlin AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 16/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Gustav Graves (GB)J: George Wood Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Kipp Kelly (GB)J: Alex Jary All-weather Championship Is Back Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 20/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: Taryn Langley Aw Trails Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 16/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bang To Rights (GB)J: Faye McManoman Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 500/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Rose Dawes Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 33/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Alex Jary Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 6/1

06 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Joanna Mason bettingsites.co.uk Racing Offers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 11/8F

05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 80/1

03 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Alex Jary Bettingsites.co.uk Find Your Bookmaker Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 12/1

26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Popular Dream (GB)J: Alex Jary Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 22/1

24 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: Jack Gilligan Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 22/1

24 Sep 26 Pontefract Bust A Moon (GB)J: Jack Dace ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 12/1

21 Sep 26 Leicester Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds Pattinson Auction Winning Bid Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 11th 80/1

18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: Darragh Keenan Jjx Logistics Going The Distance Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 33/1

09 Sep 26 Carlisle Bust A Moon (GB)J: Lauren Young Deanta Fire Door Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 4th 28/1

08 Sep 26 Leicester Ezra Cee (IRE)J: Jack Dace Dale Hall And Hickman Associates Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 80/1

03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Bust A Moon (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 4th 25/1

27 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Al Suil Eile (FR)J: George Wood Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 100/1

16 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Cosmic Bond (GB)J: Faye McManoman Grace & Dotty Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 26 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 26 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Derek Shaw's strike rate?: Derek Shaw has won 382 of 5,223 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Derek Shaw do best at?: Chelmsford (AW) by strike rate: 57 wins from 529 runners (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Derek Shaw?: Paddy Mathers, with 583 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 44 (7.5%).
Is Derek Shaw in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Derek Shaw's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 5,199 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.