Gary Brown
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 40 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.19). With a claiming rider up the record reads 11% (247 runs).
The record is strongest at Fontwell (18.5%, n=54) and Wolverhampton (AW) (14.4%, n=90) — all clear of the yard's 8.5% baseline. Debutants struggle at 2.3% (n=43, Fair A/E 0.76). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 8.9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.36 and +28.54 to a £1 stake over 190 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Isabelle Ryder rides 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (13.6%, n=147). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 2.6% over 78 runners, 5.9pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Hannah's Return (GB) — 7 wins from 28 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Dec.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 804 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 804 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 29 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Gary Brown's strike rate?
- Gary Brown has won 61 of 716 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Gary Brown do best at?
- Fontwell by strike rate: 10 wins from 54 runners (18.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Gary Brown?
- Isabelle Ryder, with 69 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (8.7%).
- Is Gary Brown in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Gary Brown's Fair A/E?
- 1.19, from 714 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.