What is Jack W Davison's strike rate?

Jack W Davison has won 78 of 1,021 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jack W Davison do best at?

Down Royal by strike rate: 7 wins from 33 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Jack W Davison?

R. P. Whelan, with 229 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (10.5%).

Is Jack W Davison in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Jack W Davison's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 1,020 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Jack W Davison

1,021 runners in the lifetime window · 170 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

78–1,021

Wins / Runs

7.6%

Strike rate

n=1,021

266 (26%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=1,020 · 0.80 incl. margin

−280.63

£1 level stake

n=1,021 at SP · −27.5%

£1.93m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,021 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov 37.5% when favourite R. P. Whelan: 10.5% from 229 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Down Royal (21.2%, n=33) and Roscommon (16.7%, n=30) — all clear of the yard's 7.6% baseline. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 1.2% (n=84, Fair A/E 0.20). The market has consistently overbet debutants: 2.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.57 and −39.00 to a £1 stake over 124 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. R. P. Whelan rides 22% of the entries and edges the yard's average (10.5% vs 7.6%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17%, n=100). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 34 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Paddy Power Sapphire Stakes at Curragh (Jul 2021, £59,000). The stable star of the record: Thunderbear (IRE) — 5 wins from 37 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.1%−3.5

n=121 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −38.67

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.3%−3.3

n=46 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −28.80

Debutants · first career start

2.4%−5.2

n=124 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −39.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

1.2%−6.4

n=84 · A/E 0.20 · £1 −76.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.2%+0.6

n=61 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −34.75

When favourite

37.5%

n=56 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +6.96

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.3%−2.3

n=303 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −185.95

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.3%−2.3

n=95 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −49.88

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Down Royal 21.2% vs 7.6% · n=33

Off a 0-7-day break 17% vs 7.6% · n=100

At Roscommon 16.7% vs 7.6% · n=30

With first-time headgear 1.2% vs 7.6% · n=84

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 7.6% · n=34

With debutants 2.4% vs 7.6% · n=124

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,020 78 7.6% −279.63

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 327 23 7% −177.51

Soft 260 19 7.3% +61.46

Standard (AW) 213 21 9.9% −31.82

Heavy 92 7 7.6% −44.75

Good to Soft 69 5 7.2% −36.12

Good to Firm 60 3 5% −51.89

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 198 20 10.1% −31.82

Curragh 163 7 4.3% −89.50

Naas 99 3 3% −76.00

Navan 76 4 5.3% −59.62

Cork 70 5 7.1% −15.00

Leopardstown 54 2 3.7% −39.00

Gowran Park 54 4 7.4% +94.88

Fairyhouse 49 4 8.2% −28.00

Galway 34 3 8.8% −7.25

Down Royal 33 7 21.2% −7.55

Roscommon 30 5 16.7% +31.00

Tipperary 28 3 10.7% −18.94

Killarney 20 1 5% −12.00

Bellewstown 19 1 5.3% −6.00

Listowel 14 1 7.1% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 95 5 5.3% −49.88

Class 2 8 1 12.5% −6.38

Class 4 3 2 66.7% +17.67

Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 69 21 30.4% 1.19 −6.04

2nd–3rd fav 170 25 14.7% 1.02 −21.09

4th–6th fav 295 24 8.1% 1.07 −38.50

7th+ in betting 487 8 1.6% 0.53 −215.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Thunderbear (IRE)then Stephen Thorne 37 5 11 20 Jun 26

Miacomet (IRE) 37 2 13 22 Oct 20

Glow Worm (IRE) 33 0 17 3 Jul 21

Downtown Diva (IRE)then Adrian Paul Keatley 31 0 7 17 Apr 19

She's Quality (IRE) 23 4 12 5 Oct 25

Massaman (IRE) 23 4 7 27 Sep 22

Mooneista (IRE)then Joseph Patrick O'Brien 21 3 13 2 Oct 22

Cisco Disco (IRE)then Richard Fahey 19 3 7 25 Oct 21

Black Magic Woman (IRE) 18 3 7 28 Feb 20

Betsen (GB)then Tony Carroll 17 1 6 27 Sep 25

Too Hard To Hold (IRE)from Mark Johnston 17 2 4 13 Aug 21

Scorchio (IRE) 15 3 5 27 Aug 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 170 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Johnston (4) and Adrian McGuinness (3); 50 had their first archived run for this yard.

29 have since run for another yard, most often for Stephen Thorne (5); 31 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9157117684891111

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderR. P. Whelan

22% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 1.16

RiderRWSR£1

R. P. Whelan 229 24 10.5% +69.58

James Ryan 214 14 6.5% −75.62

Colin Keane 62 8 12.9% −18.87

Gary Halpin 55 5 9.1% +29.00

Luke McAteer 40 2 5% −21.50

Oisin Orr 39 3 7.7% −18.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.93m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 19 wins

Mooneista (IRE) — Paddy Power Sapphire Stakes (Group 2) Curragh · Jul 2021 · Group 2

£59,000

Thunderbear (IRE) — Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Newbury · Sep 2023 · Group 3

£39,697

Thunderbear (IRE) — RFL Steels Stakes (Listed) Naas · Oct 2025 · Listed

£26,550

Notable horses

Thunderbear (IRE) Massaman (IRE) She's Quality (IRE) Mooneista (IRE) Cisco Disco (IRE) Black Magic Woman (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 5.8% · 5–86

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,978 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Camacho (GB) 9.7% · 6–62

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,325 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Kodi Bear (IRE) 14% · 6–43

Progeny have won 10.3% of 3,984 runs since 2020 (391 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 261.

Mehmas (IRE) 15.4% · 6–39

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,216 runs since 2020 (752 horses).

Epaulette (AUS) 0% · 0–33

Progeny have won 9.1% of 3,067 runs since 2017 (221 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 173. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 222.

Sea The Stars (IRE) 6.1% · 2–33

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,979 runs since 2013 (1,118 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.4% from 457. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,021 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,021 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 August 2017 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) All About Noa (IRE)J: James Ryan Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden7f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 22/1

04 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Always Magic (GB)J: James Ryan Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 11/4

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) New Radical (IRE)J: James Ryan Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 11th 50/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Estrallita (IRE)J: James Ryan Dundalk Stadium Optional Claiming Race8f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 14/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Initial Blue (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 6th 6/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Celine Dee (GB)J: James Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 40/1

02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Lady Chancalot (FR)J: James Ryan Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 33/1

29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Howlin Wolf (IRE)J: James Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series)6f · Yielding To Soft · 6 ran 5th 11/2

25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Initial Blue (IRE)J: Jack Kearney View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap6f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 15/2

21 Sep 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Elly Bay (IRE)J: R. P. Whelan La Bucca Restaurant Handicap7f · Good · 18 ran 13th 33/1

21 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Celestial Heights (IRE)J: James Ryan Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding · 11 ran 9th 14/1

18 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Always Magic (GB)J: James Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 11/1

17 Sep 26 Naas (IRE) Golden Arizona (IRE)J: Jack Kearney Care At Home Nursery Handicap8f · Yielding · 13 ran 5th 15/2

16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Estrallita (IRE)J: James Ryan Clonmel Racecourse Supporters Club Fillies Maiden10f · Yielding · 8 ran 3rd 6/1

13 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) She's Coul (IRE)J: James Ryan Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Stakes6.5f · Yielding · 15 ran 14th 100/1

10 Sep 26 Laytown (IRE) Initial Blue (IRE)J: Mr H C Swan Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports (Q.R.) Handicap6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 14/1

05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Howlin Wolf (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series)6f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 17/2

02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Estrallita (IRE)J: James Ryan Racing Again This Saturday Fillies Maiden10f · Good · 21 ran 6th 14/1

01 Sep 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Lady Chancalot (FR)J: James Ryan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Yielding · 16 ran 9th 150/1

27 Aug 26 Navan (IRE) Cameclose (IRE)J: Reese Holohan GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap14f · Good · 18 ran 9th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 4 Nov 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Jack W Davison's strike rate?: Jack W Davison has won 78 of 1,021 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jack W Davison do best at?: Down Royal by strike rate: 7 wins from 33 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Jack W Davison?: R. P. Whelan, with 229 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (10.5%).
Is Jack W Davison in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jack W Davison's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 1,020 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.