What is John Mackie's strike rate?

John Mackie has won 244 of 2,677 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Mackie do best at?

Beverley by strike rate: 10 wins from 85 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Mackie?

Franny Norton, with 157 runners since 2008 — 6% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (10.8%).

Is John Mackie in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is John Mackie's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 2,664 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Mackie

2,677 runners in the lifetime window · 227 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Runners today

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

244–2,677

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=2,677

728 (27%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=2,664 · 0.86 incl. margin

−639.08

£1 level stake

n=2,677 at SP · −23.9%

£1.80m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 140 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). New recruits from other yards win at 11% first time out (122 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,677 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 30.3% when favourite Franny Norton: 10.8% from 157 New recruits: 10.7% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 4.5% (n=88, Fair A/E 1.65). New recruits from other stables on their first run are the standout value angle: 10.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.64 and +24.38 to a £1 stake over 122 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 7.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −176.62 to a £1 stake over 470 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Franny Norton rides 6% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.8%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The stable star of the record: Custard The Dragon (GB) — 10 wins from 72 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.4%−3.7

n=460 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −220.84

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.7%+1.6

n=122 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +24.38

Debutants · first career start

4.5%−4.6

n=88 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +57.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.7%−3.4

n=53 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −33.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.4%+1.3

n=48 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −5.50

When favourite

30.3%

n=165 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +2.32

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.4%−1.7

n=470 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −176.62

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.1

n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Connor Beasley 27.1% vs 9.1% · n=48

On last-time-out winners 16.7% vs 9.1% · n=246

With C&D winners 15.4% vs 9.1% · n=501

With Ben Curtis 19% vs 9.1% · n=42

With Tom Eaves 0% vs 9.1% · n=31

With Cam Hardie 0% vs 9.1% · n=30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,925 183 9.5% −497.67

Hurdle 529 41 7.8% −201.29

Chase 121 14 11.6% +1.88

NH Flat 102 6 5.9% +58.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 980 91 9.3% −215.47

Good 701 59 8.4% −267.74

Good to Firm 411 43 10.5% −75.25

Good to Soft 286 18 6.3% −125.50

Soft 235 23 9.8% +5.53

Heavy 50 5 10% +8.10

Firm 14 5 35.7% +31.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 581 49 8.4% −152.41

Southwell (AW) 247 27 10.9% −80.63

Doncaster 191 19 9.9% −10.37

Uttoxeter 173 13 7.5% −28.75

Nottingham 132 13 9.8% −24.75

Newcastle (AW) 101 9 8.9% −12.26

Haydock 99 8 8.1% −42.25

Leicester 91 7 7.7% −54.88

Beverley 85 10 11.8% −20.04

Bangor-on-Dee 75 6 8% −36.67

Southwell 72 6 8.3% −42.25

Catterick 62 5 8.1% −19.50

Wetherby 60 7 11.7% +50.50

Pontefract 57 4 7% −29.75

Market Rasen 55 2 3.6% −47.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 942 81 8.6% −178.49

Class 4 726 65 9% −209.99

Class 6 723 66 9.1% −204.23

Class 3 193 26 13.5% −2.87

Class 2 64 4 6.3% −26.50

Class 1 18 0 0% −18.00

Class 7 11 2 18.2% +1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 209 66 31.6% 1.28 +28.11

2nd–3rd fav 542 81 14.9% 0.92 −80.19

4th–6th fav 908 73 8% 0.99 −105.00

7th+ in betting 1,018 24 2.4% 0.71 −482.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 627 57 9.1% −3.54

1m2f – 1m4f 604 67 11.1% −170.26

6f – 7f 529 53 10% −123.51

1m – 1m1f 501 35 7% −190.65

2m1f – 2m4f 277 23 8.3% −101.62

2m5f – 3m 85 4 4.7% −58.00

Under 6f 35 1 2.9% −6.00

Over 3m 19 4 21.1% +14.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 134 13 9.7% −51.42

2009 171 17 9.9% −17.13

2010 171 16 9.4% +26.75

2011 183 10 5.5% −94.40

2012 165 14 8.5% −45.88

2013 163 19 11.7% −25.77

2014 128 11 8.6% −48.50

2015 155 12 7.7% −57.50

2016 150 15 10% −19.92

2017 139 20 14.4% +22.00

2018 130 9 6.9% −59.17

2019 122 6 4.9% −62.50

2020 111 12 10.8% +11.87

2021 152 21 13.8% −9.54

2022 150 12 8% −90.38

2023 104 3 2.9% −86.67

2024 103 10 9.7% +18.16

2025 122 13 10.7% +5.58

2026 124 11 8.9% −54.66

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,154 216 10% −483.83

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 930 101 10.9% −123.52

11-13 runners 871 52 6% −322.01

5-7 runners 447 61 13.6% −72.38

14-16 runners 315 18 5.7% −151.17

17+ runners 76 4 5.3% −7.00

2-4 runners 38 8 21.1% +37.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hallstatt (IRE)from Evan Williams 91 9 29 1 Nov 18

Distinction (IRE)from K R Burke 72 8 17 19 Oct 26

Custard The Dragon (GB)from Ralph Beckett 72 10 24 8 May 23

Saint Thomas (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 67 10 24 8 Apr 17

Bomb Squad (IRE)from J S Moore 60 8 33 30 Oct 26

Arizona John (IRE)from Noel Wilson 57 8 22 12 Aug 15

Available Angel (GB) 50 2 14 15 Mar 25

Lunar Jet (GB)then Michael Mullineaux 48 7 17 22 May 21

Available (IRE)from Jim Boyle 48 6 17 22 Jul 16

Knight In Purple (GB)from Donald McCain 46 7 17 30 Oct 15

Swinging London (IRE)from Olly Murphy 42 5 15 18 May 26

Barton Knoll (GB) 42 5 11 29 Nov 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 227 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 13 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ian Williams (2) and Jim Boyle (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Pat Murphy (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1011101113710886710

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderFranny Norton

6% of all rides
10.8% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Franny Norton 157 17 10.8% −24.80

Joe Fanning 121 18 14.9% −2.42

Graham Gibbons 102 14 13.7% +3.48

Jimmy Quinn 100 9 9% +11.75

P J McDonald 90 8 8.9% −24.62

Brian Hughes 86 12 14% +26.38

Stephen Craine 78 5 6.4% −29.50

Donal Devereux 75 4 5.3% −49.00

Graham Lee 73 5 6.8% −28.50

Andrew Mullen 65 2 3.1% −50.50

Phil Kinsella 62 4 6.5% −27.50

Peter Carberry 48 4 8.3% −25.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

287

Archived wins

£2.05m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 21 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Fire Jet (IRE) — TBA Centenary Fillies' Handicap Newmarket · Aug 2017 · Class 3

£16,173

Fire Jet (IRE) — TBA Centenary Fillies' Handicap Nottingham · Oct 2017 · Class 3

£15,563

Gidam Gidam (IRE) — Bluesquare.com Handicap Chase Doncaster · Feb 2010 · Class 2

£12,524

Notable horses

Custard The Dragon (GB) Saint Thomas (IRE) Hallstatt (IRE) Distinction (IRE) Bomb Squad (IRE) Arizona John (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Halling (USA) 9.6% · 10–104

Progeny have won 11% of 6,095 runs since 2008 (409 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 187.

Ask (GB) 14.3% · 12–84

Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,218 runs since 2014 (283 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 12.2% · 10–82

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,593 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Alhaarth (IRE) 13.5% · 10–74

Progeny have won 9.7% of 4,158 runs since 2008 (308 horses).

Kyllachy (GB) 13.9% · 10–72

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Heeraat (IRE) 4.7% · 3–64

Progeny have won 8% of 2,999 runs since 2018 (194 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,182 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,182 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Susie Sioux (GB)J: George Wood Watch Racing TV Now Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8.5f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 22/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Society Kiss (GB)J: Finley Marsh AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 20/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Callum Hutchinson Arc All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 28/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Bomb Squad (IRE)J: P. J. McDonald Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 22/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Cobalt Comet (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 100/30

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Galileo's Gift (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 33/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Thomas Tallis (GB)J: Finlay Bassett All Weather Championship Is Back "Hands And Heels" Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 28/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Packetofbiscuits (GB)J: Oisin Orr All-weather Championship Is Back Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 13/2

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Distinction (IRE)J: Darragh Keenan bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 28/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sunshine And Roses (GB)J: Darragh Keenan bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 25/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Callum Hutchinson Carlsberg Danish Pilsner 1847 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 12/1

09 Oct 26 York Packetofbiscuits (GB)J: Finlay Bassett Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 13th 40/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Distinction (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Henry Malone 1926 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 9/1

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Society Kiss (GB)J: Clifford Lee Download The Raceday Ready App Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 25/1

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cy Twombly (IRE)J: Clifford Lee Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 10/1

29 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Saeculamation (IRE)J: James Sullivan Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 66/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Cobalt Comet (GB)J: Lewis Edmunds Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 28/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Thomas Tallis (GB)J: Tyler Heard Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 18/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Late Claim (FR)J: Finlay Bassett Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 14/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Khachaturian (GB)J: Tyler Heard Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 300/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 2 Nov 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 1) · to 2 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Mackie's strike rate?: John Mackie has won 244 of 2,677 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Mackie do best at?: Beverley by strike rate: 10 wins from 85 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Mackie?: Franny Norton, with 157 runners since 2008 — 6% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (10.8%).
Is John Mackie in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Mackie's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 2,664 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.