What is Patrick Joseph Hayes's strike rate?

Patrick Joseph Hayes has won 12 of 321 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.7% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Patrick Joseph Hayes do best at?

Listowel by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 runners (6.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Patrick Joseph Hayes?

Chris Hayes, with 56 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.4%).

What is Patrick Joseph Hayes's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 321 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Patrick Joseph Hayes

321 runners in the lifetime window · 62 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jul 2025

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

12–321

Wins / Runs

3.7%

Strike rate

n=321

40 (13%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=321 · 0.75 incl. margin

−147.12

£1 level stake

n=321 at SP · −45.8%

£157k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). New recruits from other yards win at 9% first time out (35 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 321 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Chris Hayes: 5.4% from 56 New recruits: 8.6%

The read

It is weakest at Killarney (0% over 33 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 8.6% (n=35, Fair A/E 2.60). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −121.50 to a £1 stake over 187 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Chris Hayes rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.4%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well over 6f – 7f (10%, n=30). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 65 runners, 3.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.6%−0.1

n=84 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −14.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.6%+4.9

n=35 · A/E 2.60 · £1 +26.00

Debutants · first career start

4.8%+1.1

n=21 · A/E 2.51 · £1 −4.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.3%+1.6

n=19 · A/E 2.27 · £1 −4.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−3.7

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

When favourite

60%

n=5 · A/E 2.50 · £1 +7.38

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

2.1%−1.6

n=187 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −121.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−3.7

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 6f – 7f 10% vs 3.7% · n=30

With new recruits 8.6% vs 3.7% · n=35

Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 3.7% · n=65

At Killarney 0% vs 3.7% · n=33

Off a 15-30-day break 6.2% vs 3.7% · n=97

In Chase races 6.3% vs 3.7% · n=48

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 156 5 3.2% −89.50

Hurdle 92 2 2.2% −37.00

Chase 48 3 6.3% −15.50

NH Flat 25 2 8% −5.12

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 101 3 3% −59.12

Soft 86 3 3.5% −30.00

Heavy 49 3 6.1% +1.50

Good to Soft 35 1 2.9% −20.00

Standard (AW) 33 2 6.1% −22.50

Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00

Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 33 2 6.1% −22.50

Killarney 33 0 0% −33.00

Limerick 32 1 3.1% −27.50

Listowel 31 2 6.5% +12.00

Cork 20 0 0% −20.00

Punchestown 17 1 5.9% −2.00

Gowran Park 16 1 6.3% −3.00

Curragh 15 0 0% −15.00

Leopardstown 14 0 0% −14.00

Tipperary 13 0 0% −13.00

Thurles 12 0 0% −12.00

Tramore 11 0 0% −11.00

Galway 10 2 20% +20.00

Kilbeggan 9 1 11.1% −6.12

Naas 9 1 11.1% +20.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 5 3 60% 2.50 +7.38

2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.61 −8.50

4th–6th fav 62 1 1.6% 0.27 −47.00

7th+ in betting 240 7 2.9% 1.17 −99.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pro Bono (IRE) 22 1 3 15 Oct 24

Harbour View (IRE)from E McNamara 21 2 5 24 Mar 11

Keel Castle Maine (IRE) 19 0 3 21 Sep 09

Urban Beach (IRE)from J T Gorman 18 0 1 23 Oct 11

Washington Poste (GB)from Kevin Prendergast 16 0 1 12 Nov 10

Flirting Lesa (IRE)from Miss Elizabeth Anne Lalor 14 2 4 16 Jun 21

Gatsby Cap (IRE)from J A Stack · then J G Coogan 12 2 2 12 Jun 22

Glengali (IRE)from E McNamara 9 0 1 25 Mar 10

Crested Pochard (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast · then Thomas Cooper 9 0 2 19 Sep 09

Wayside Lady (IRE)from Conor O'Dwyer · then Andrew Slattery 8 0 0 12 Jul 25

Moonhall Girl (IRE)from Francis J Flood 8 1 3 1 Nov 20

Mr Dee Cee (IRE) 7 0 0 25 Aug 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 62 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Conor O'Dwyer (3) and E McNamara (3); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Andrew Slattery (2) and Eddie & Patrick Harty (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

7800330310070

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderChris Hayes

17% of all rides
5.4% SR · A/E 0.98

RiderRWSR£1

Chris Hayes 56 3 5.4% −32.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£184k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 4 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lightning Jock (IRE) — Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction Maiden (Plus 10) Galway · Aug 2020

£14,750

Harbour View (IRE) — John Fletcher Memorial Handicap Hurdle (81-123) Listowel · Sep 2008

£13,020

Harbour View (IRE) — Resource Garryowen Plate Handicap Chase (0-130) Limerick · Nov 2008

£12,784

Notable horses

Harbour View (IRE) Flirting Lesa (IRE) Gatsby Cap (IRE) Keel Castle Maine (IRE) Pro Bono (IRE) Homestead (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Lord Shanakill (USA) 4.5% · 1–22

Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,619 runs since 2014 (108 horses).

Tidaro (USA) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 7.3% of 151 runs since 2008 (12 horses).

Blue Ocean (USA) 0% · 0–19

Progeny have won 7.5% of 253 runs since 2008 (19 horses).

Mull Of Kintyre (USA) 0% · 0–19

Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.

Halling (USA) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 11% of 6,095 runs since 2008 (409 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 187.

Flemensfirth (USA) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 433 · newest first

The latest 50 of 433 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 July 2005 to 19 July 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Jul 25 Curragh Morethan Ambitions (USA)J: Gavin Ryan Cavalor 'Bronchix Pulmo' Irish European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 21 ran 14th 100/1

15 Jul 25 Downpatrick Peg Of The Hills (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Follow Tote On X Handicap Hurdle (0-100)22f · Good · 13 ran 10th 33/1

13 Jul 25 Navan Wellwhatshappenin (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race10f · Good · 4 ran 4th 250/1

12 Jul 25 Limerick Wayside Lady (IRE)J: Jessica O'Gorman Panoramic Restaurant At Limerick Racecourse Apprentice Handicap (0-60)11.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 25/1

12 Jul 25 Limerick Morethan Ambitions (USA)J: Gavin Ryan Conference & Banqueting Facilities At Limerick Racecourse Maiden8f · Good · 11 ran 6th 33/1

05 Jul 25 Naas Wellwhatshappenin (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Gener8 Engineering Handicap (0-60)10.5f · Good · 13 ran 8th 40/1

04 Jul 25 Bellewstown Wayside Lady (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Dore & Co. Solicitors Handicap (0-60)12f · Good · 14 ran 9th 25/1

03 Jul 25 Tipperary Eyes Wide Shut (IRE)J: Mr L P Shanahan Tipperary Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 16th 33/1

03 Jul 25 Tipperary Golden Reel (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 13th 250/1

16 Jun 25 Kilbeggan Peg Of The Hills (IRE)J: Charlie O'Dwyer Follow Kilbeggan On Instagram Mares Hurdle19f · Good · 10 ran 9th 200/1

31 May 25 Listowel Golden Reel (IRE)J: Charlie O'Dwyer Eamon Foran Memorial Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 17 ran PU 250/1

30 Apr 25 Punchestown Doctor Churchill (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 25 ran 13th 33/1

06 Apr 25 Fairyhouse Doctor Churchill (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Whistlin' Donkeys At Fairyhouse Easter Saturday Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 12/1

20 Mar 25 Cork Doctor Nightingale (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series At Punchestown Festival 2025 Qualifier Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 20 ran 13th 66/1

08 Feb 25 Naas Doctor Churchill (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle15.5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 15/2

31 Jan 25 Dundalk (AW) Wayside Lady (IRE)J: Jessica O'Gorman Follow Us On Twitter At DundalkStadium Handicap (47-65)10.5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 25/1

31 Jan 25 Dundalk (AW) Wellwhatshappenin (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap (47-65)7f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 40/1

21 Jan 25 Down Royal Doctor Nightingale (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Coors Mares Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 7th 14/1

05 Jan 25 Naas Doctor Churchill (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle19f · Heavy · 17 ran 1st 28/1

01 Jan 25 Tramore Doctor Nightingale (IRE)J: Cian Cullinan Jimmy Shanahan Memorial Handicap Hurdle17f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Joseph Hayes's strike rate?: Patrick Joseph Hayes has won 12 of 321 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.7% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Joseph Hayes do best at?: Listowel by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 runners (6.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick Joseph Hayes?: Chris Hayes, with 56 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.4%).
What is Patrick Joseph Hayes's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 321 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.