What is Philip Kirby's strike rate?

Philip Kirby has won 608 of 6,679 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Philip Kirby do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 43 wins from 262 runners (16.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Philip Kirby?

Thomas Dowson, with 734 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 72 (9.8%).

Is Philip Kirby in form?

In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 5.9%. That is below the baseline of 9.1% since 2008.

What is Philip Kirby's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 6,651 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Philip Kirby

6,679 runners in the lifetime window · 611 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 6.0% of 448 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.2–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 10 Nov 2026.

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

608–6,679

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=6,679

1,655 (25%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=6,651 · 0.84 incl. margin

−2,336.02

£1 level stake

n=6,679 at SP · −35.0%

£5.05m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 350 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). In Group and Graded company the record reads 13% (86 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 6,679 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Dec 34.7% when favourite Thomas Dowson: 9.8% from 734 Claiming riders: 9.9% Group/Graded: 12.8% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (16.4%, n=262), clear of the yard's 9.1% baseline. In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 12.8% (n=86, Fair A/E 1.53), but debutants struggle at 5.6% (n=249, Fair A/E 1.04). The market has consistently overbet new recruits from other stables on their first run: 6% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −236.20 to a £1 stake over 365 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 17 runners in the last 14 days (5.9%, 3.2pts below the 9.1% baseline). Thomas Dowson rides 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.8%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (23.2%, n=285) and in Chase races (16.2%, n=500). 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Mansionbet Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase at Doncaster (Dec 2018, £44,193). The stable star of the record: Lady Buttons (GB) — 15 wins from 33 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.7%−3.4

n=1,086 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −520.58

New recruits · first run for the yard

6%−3.1

n=365 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −236.20

Debutants · first career start

5.6%−3.5

n=249 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −62.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.9%−1.2

n=189 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +38.12

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.5%−1.6

n=228 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −86.90

When favourite

34.7%

n=484 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −25.16

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.9%+0.8

n=2,538 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −690.42

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.8%+3.7

n=86 · A/E 1.53 · £1 −3.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 23.2% vs 9.1% · n=285

On last-time-out winners 19.8% vs 9.1% · n=622

In Chase races 16.2% vs 9.1% · n=500

At Musselburgh 16.4% vs 9.1% · n=262

With Cam Hardie 1.7% vs 9.1% · n=177

Beyond 3m 16.4% vs 9.1% · n=177

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,448 269 7.8% −1,442.71

Hurdle 2,355 233 9.9% −693.59

Chase 500 81 16.2% −82.54

NH Flat 376 25 6.6% −117.18

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,840 162 8.8% −586.97

Standard (AW) 1,596 128 8% −677.68

Soft 1,096 100 9.1% −469.99

Good to Soft 1,079 103 9.5% −267.69

Good to Firm 720 68 9.4% −287.90

Heavy 338 47 13.9% −35.79

Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 609 41 6.7% −315.32

Catterick 554 42 7.6% −216.78

Wolverhampton (AW) 470 44 9.4% −125.04

Wetherby 407 43 10.6% −114.54

Sedgefield 382 53 13.9% −58.18

Southwell (AW) 355 31 8.7% −188.48

Newcastle 279 31 11.1% −78.95

Musselburgh 262 43 16.4% +13.05

Carlisle 249 25 10% −55.17

Doncaster 242 16 6.6% −145.51

Market Rasen 237 24 10.1% −46.39

Ayr 215 20 9.3% −101.60

Hexham 215 20 9.3% −128.49

Redcar 182 16 8.8% −96.84

Southwell 141 14 9.9% −34.34

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,140 194 9.1% −770.86

Class 4 1,979 186 9.4% −724.10

Class 6 1,709 148 8.7% −670.44

Class 3 484 52 10.7% −119.37

Class 2 216 17 7.9% +17.50

Class 1 94 11 11.7% −11.75

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 590 185 31.4% 1.05 −68.67

2nd–3rd fav 1,277 218 17.1% 1.05 −179.35

4th–6th fav 2,152 152 7.1% 0.93 −500.50

7th+ in betting 2,660 53 2% 0.66 −1,587.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 1,833 166 9.1% −712.46

2m1f – 2m4f 1,474 155 10.5% −266.06

1m2f – 1m4f 1,097 76 6.9% −579.35

6f – 7f 812 54 6.7% −451.68

2m5f – 3m 625 80 12.8% −76.61

1m – 1m1f 487 36 7.4% −156.55

Over 3m 177 29 16.4% −19.64

Under 6f 174 12 6.9% −73.67

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 44 4 9.1% −15.50

2009 123 10 8.1% −63.42

2010 161 14 8.7% −63.42

2011 197 19 9.6% −92.02

2012 194 21 10.8% +8.96

2013 416 62 14.9% +5.72

2014 431 39 9% −122.47

2015 297 27 9.1% −68.62

2016 316 21 6.6% −181.75

2017 338 34 10.1% −68.37

2018 471 58 12.3% −53.93

2019 485 37 7.6% −171.75

2020 488 38 7.8% −235.44

2021 577 53 9.2% −285.35

2022 472 40 8.5% −181.60

2023 467 36 7.7% −179.26

2024 450 43 9.6% −169.24

2025 390 26 6.7% −194.19

2026 362 26 7.2% −204.37

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 5,079 483 9.5% −1,652.27

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,382 229 9.6% −711.20

11-13 runners 1,921 115 6% −1,025.22

5-7 runners 1,363 189 13.9% −264.64

14-16 runners 692 35 5.1% −269.16

17+ runners 190 7 3.7% −99.50

2-4 runners 131 33 25.2% +33.70

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fircombe Hall (GB) 91 10 37 18 Jun 26

Triple Eight (IRE)from D K Weld 71 5 22 12 Nov 16

Lord Torranaga (FR)from Alain Couetil 57 6 24 19 Oct 24

Red Force One (GB)from Paul Nicholls 54 9 14 15 Oct 25

Misscarlett (IRE)from Sally Haynes 54 2 9 7 Jul 24

Mr Carbonator (GB)from Richard Fahey 54 5 26 25 Nov 21

Next Edition (IRE)from Anna Bramall 53 3 17 17 Apr 17

Busby (IRE)from Ivan Furtado 52 7 17 17 Apr 26

Cavalieri (IRE)from William Jarvis 50 5 11 19 Oct 17

Goldan Jess (IRE)from Tony Carroll 50 9 22 29 Aug 16

Amazing King (IRE)from Bill Turner 50 9 19 18 Aug 12

Clean Getaway (IRE)from Nicky Henderson 48 8 17 3 Nov 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 611 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 26 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David O'Meara (4) and Joseph Patrick O'Brien (3); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 17 5.9% · −3.2pts vs baseline

Last 14 days5.9%

Lifetime base9.1%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

9913988910561012

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderThomas Dowson

11% of all rides
9.8% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Thomas Dowson 734 72 9.8% −210.97

Adam Nicol 563 82 14.6% −29.76

Joe Williamson 555 58 10.5% −164.94

Kyle James 209 23 11% −43.78

Kevin Stott 191 23 12% −34.56

Cam Hardie 177 3 1.7% −150.00

Andrew Mullen 172 11 6.4% −114.00

Phil Dennis 171 8 4.7% −122.50

Richie McGrath 157 20 12.7% +19.79

James Reveley 144 20 13.9% −30.52

Sean Quinlan 125 21 16.8% +24.21

Aiden Brookes 105 9 8.6% −2.88

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

613

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.07m

Prize money

2013

Best season · 62 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lady Buttons (GB) — Mansionbet Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase (Listed) Doncaster · Dec 2018 · Listed

£44,193

Lady Buttons (GB) — MansionBet At Doncaster Yorkshire Silver Vase Mares' Chase (Listed) Doncaster · Dec 2019 · Listed

£42,285

Platinum (IRE) — Betfred 'Goals Galore' Old Borough Cup (Handicap) Haydock · Sep 2013 · Class 2

£38,814

Notable horses

Lady Buttons (GB) Fircombe Hall (GB) Red Force One (GB) Goldan Jess (IRE) Amazing King (IRE) Clean Getaway (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beneficial (GB) 19.7% · 25–127

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 5.7% · 7–123

Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,568 runs since 2008 (872 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 9.2% · 11–119

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,604 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Yeats (IRE) 9.7% · 10–103

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,854 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Kayf Tara (GB) 13.3% · 13–98

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,766 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Oasis Dream (GB) 9.7% · 9–93

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,048 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,698 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,698 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2007 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Dollar's Dream (IRE)J: Rhys Elliott Join The Midnite Movement Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 16.5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 25/1

07 Nov 26 Kelso Lone Star (GB)J: Joe Williamson Graeme Todd Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier) (Div II)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 7th 14/1

07 Nov 26 Kelso Asa (FR)J: Joe Williamson Graeme Todd Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 9th 33/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Ellie's De Vega (GB)J: Cam Hardie Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 11/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Kings Merchant (GB)J: Kevin Stott Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 12/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Educating Rita (GB)J: Kevin Stott Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 100/30

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Walk On Walk On (IRE)J: Ryan Sexton All-Weather Championship Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 25/1

06 Nov 26 Hexham Starlet Du Brizais (FR)J: Joe Williamson carpetgallop.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 7th 150/1

05 Nov 26 Newcastle Bathgate (GB)J: Joe Williamson Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 4th 10/1

05 Nov 26 Newcastle Regal Thunder (IRE)J: Joe Williamson Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 18/1

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Clean Getaway (IRE)J: Joe Williamson Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 4/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Kitaab (GB)J: Aiden Brookes AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 66/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Educating Rita (GB)J: Kevin Stott Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 7/2

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) The Green Man (IRE)J: Kevin Stott Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 12/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Tee Zee Dee (GB)J: Mr Daniel Perrin Bob Derry 50 Years At Uttoxeter National Hunt Flat Race (conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 66/1

30 Oct 26 Wetherby Starlet Du Brizais (FR)J: Joe Williamson Best Odds Guaranteed At Bet365 Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 100/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Queenies Pal (GB)J: Miss Natasha Cookson AJA Championships Finale Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 125/1

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Regal Thunder (IRE)J: Miss Natasha Cookson Breeders' Cup On Sky Sports Racing Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 6th 28/1

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Batchelor's Lad (IRE)J: Joe Williamson Breeders' Cup On Sky Sports Racing Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 4th 22/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Container Express (GB)J: Aiden Brookes Celebrating Helen Mackinnon's LX Years Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 9th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 18 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Philip Kirby's strike rate?: Philip Kirby has won 608 of 6,679 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Philip Kirby do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 43 wins from 262 runners (16.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Philip Kirby?: Thomas Dowson, with 734 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 72 (9.8%).
Is Philip Kirby in form?: In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 5.9%. That is below the baseline of 9.1% since 2008.
What is Philip Kirby's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 6,651 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.