Skip to content
Trainer profile

Willie Musson

1,412 runners in the lifetime window · 127 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Sep 2016 93% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
120–1,412
Wins / Runs
8.5%
Strike rate
n=1,412
369 (26%)
Placed
0.91
Fair A/E
n=1,402 · 0.79 incl. margin
−450.84
£1 level stake
n=1,412 at SP · −31.9%
£591k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 160 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,412 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Nov–Jan 27.9% when favourite Stevie Donohoe: 8.9% from 303 Sent off the favourite in 7% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Yarmouth (14.3%, n=70), clear of the yard's 8.5% baseline. It is weakest at Newmarket (0% over 31 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −52.62 to a £1 stake over 241 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Stevie Donohoe rode 21% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.9%, A/E 0.88). The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (27.5%, n=51). The stable star of the record was Bold Adventure (GB) — 12 wins from 88 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Nov–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.2%−2.3
n=241 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −52.62
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.5
n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00
Debutants · first career start
4.5%−4.0
n=67 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −38.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.5
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
17.6%+9.1
n=17 · A/E 2.16 · £1 +59.00
When favourite
27.9%
n=104 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −11.96
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.4%−4.1
n=90 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −37.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break 27.5% vs 8.5% · n=51
On last-time-out winners 15% vs 8.5% · n=113
With Robert Winston 16.3% vs 8.5% · n=43
At Newmarket 0% vs 8.5% · n=31
With new recruits 0% vs 8.5% · n=30
At Yarmouth 14.3% vs 8.5% · n=70
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 7.1% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 1,311 111 8.5% −429.84
Hurdle 80 5 6.3% −41.00
NH Flat 19 4 21.1% +22.00
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 747 72 9.6% −255.92
Good 225 21 9.3% −37.42
Good to Firm 179 10 5.6% −61.25
Soft 118 7 5.9% −58.75
Good to Soft 112 8 7.1% −25.00
Heavy 28 2 7.1% −9.50
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton 234 21 9% −111.27
Wolverhampton (AW) 231 24 10.4% −63.26
Lingfield (AW) 197 20 10.2% −53.77
Windsor 96 5 5.2% −67.25
Newmarket 86 3 3.5% −62.50
Yarmouth 70 10 14.3% +28.25
Chelmsford (AW) 44 3 6.8% −26.00
Southwell (AW) 41 4 9.8% −1.62
Sandown 32 3 9.4% −13.50
Newmarket 31 0 0% −31.00
Doncaster 31 2 6.5% −0.50
Leicester 30 1 3.3% −7.00
Newbury 28 2 7.1% −6.00
Huntingdon 27 2 7.4% −15.00
Nottingham 26 3 11.5% +0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 495 37 7.5% −230.37
Class 6 494 57 11.5% −31.72
Class 4 281 21 7.5% −122.75
Class 2 62 2 3.2% −19.00
Class 3 61 2 3.3% −31.00
Class 7 15 1 6.7% −12.00
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 133 36 27.1% 1.06 −13.59
2nd–3rd fav 269 40 14.9% 0.91 −52.25
4th–6th fav 398 26 6.5% 0.81 −108.00
7th+ in betting 612 18 2.9% 0.81 −277.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Bold Adventure (GB)then Joanne Thomason-Murphy 76 9 28 10 Jul 16
Rocket Rob (IRE)from Marco Botti 70 4 14 7 Aug 16
Magicalmysterytour (IRE)from A P O'Brien 49 3 11 17 Dec 14
Broughtons Paradis (IRE) 44 4 25 17 May 12
Folio (IRE) 41 4 8 4 Aug 11
Marajaa (IRE)from F Head 38 6 14 22 Feb 12
Novellen Lad (IRE)from Eric Alston 36 4 10 5 Dec 14
Turjuman (USA)from F Head · then Alan Bailey 32 5 8 30 Sep 11
Dont Have It Then (GB)then Henry Spiller 31 4 10 12 Sep 16
Broughtons Bandit (GB)then Gordon Elliott 26 1 8 10 Apr 15
Hurricane Hymnbook (USA)from Stef Higgins 25 1 6 20 Apr 13
Cozy Tiger (USA) 24 3 8 11 Apr 13
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 127 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from F Head (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Henry Spiller (3); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
11814103979271214
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderStevie Donohoe
21% of all rides
8.9% SR · A/E 0.88
RiderRWSR£1
Stevie Donohoe 303 27 8.9% −89.22
Jamie Mackay 189 16 8.5% −80.95
Chris Catlin 182 19 10.4% −37.00
Tony Culhane 86 7 8.1% −48.00
Robert Winston 43 7 16.3% +13.00
Tom Queally 38 3 7.9% −19.38
Neil Pollard 36 1 2.8% −28.50
Leighton Aspell 33 3 9.1% −8.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
184
Archived wins
£1.07m
Prize money
2010
Best season · 25 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
High Treason (USA) — Reland Jorvik Heritage Handicap York · May 2007 · Class 2
£31,160
Folio (IRE) — Tote Text Betting 60021 Handicap Windsor · Nov 2006 · Class 2
£12,954
Marajaa (IRE) — Tatler Summer Season Handicap Goodwood · Jul 2009 · Class 3
£12,952
Notable horses
Bold Adventure (GB) Marajaa (IRE) Folio (IRE) Street Life (IRE) Turjuman (USA) Sweet Indulgence (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Royal Applause (GB) 7.6% · 6–79
Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.
Arkadian Hero (USA) 11.8% · 9–76
Progeny have won 3.7% of 535 runs since 2008 (41 horses).
Danetime (IRE) 5.7% · 4–70
Progeny have won 11.1% of 2,846 runs since 2008 (149 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 218.
Sadler's Wells (USA) 6.1% · 3–49
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,636 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.7% from 107.
Kyllachy (GB) 4.7% · 2–43
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Medicean (GB) 4.8% · 2–42
Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,088 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,088 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 29 September 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Sep 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Broughtons Vision (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe totepoolliveinfo.com HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 6/1
21 Sep 16 Kempton (AW) Broughtons Knight (GB)J: Timmy Murphy 32Red.com Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 4th 66/1
21 Sep 16 Kempton (AW) Broughtons Admiral (GB)J: Timmy Murphy 32Red.com Maiden Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 7th 50/1
19 Sep 16 Kempton (AW) Broughtons Vision (GB)J: James Doyle ApolloBet Online Casino & Games HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 2nd 4/1
17 Sep 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Camino (GB)J: Tom Queally Cash Out At bet365 Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 10/1
15 Sep 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Broughtons Mystery (GB)J: Josephine Gordon Chelmsford City Racecourse's 100th Race Day Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 12/1
12 Sep 16 Kempton (AW) Dont Have It Then (GB)J: Timmy Murphy ApolloBet Free Sign-Up Bonus HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 7/1
11 Sep 16 Chelmsford City (AW) State Of The Union (IRE)J: Josephine Gordon Book Your Christmas Party At Chelmsfordcityracecourse.com HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 8/1
01 Sep 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Broughtons Mystery (GB)J: Harry Bentley totequadpot Four Places In Four Races Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 20/1
25 Aug 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Broughtons Story (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe Imperial Commercials Halesowen Daf Maiden Auction StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran UR 9/4F
25 Aug 16 Wolverhampton (AW) State Of The Union (IRE)J: Stevie Donohoe Greenhous Daf Wolverhampton HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 18/1
22 Aug 16 Kempton (AW) Camino (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe 32red Casino Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 8 ran 7th 50/1
22 Aug 16 Kempton (AW) Broughtons Vision (GB)J: James Doyle Racinguk.com/hd HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 1st 9/2
08 Aug 16 Windsor State Of The Union (IRE)J: Jordan Uys Skybet Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 5th 9/1
07 Aug 16 Chelmsford City (AW) Rocket Rob (IRE)J: Stevie Donohoe Chelmsford City Racecourse Supporting Macmillan HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 10/1
04 Aug 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Camino (GB)J: Nicky Mackay G.M. Treble - Grundfos Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 33/1
04 Aug 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Broughtons Story (GB)J: J F Egan G.M. Treble Ltd Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 50/1
01 Aug 16 Kempton (AW) Broughtons Mystery (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe Apollobet Bet Through Your Mobile HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 4th 50/1
25 Jul 16 Wolverhampton (AW) Broughtons Vision (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe Fcl Global Making Logistics Personal Maiden HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 9/1
22 Jul 16 Newmarket Broughtons Mystery (GB)J: Ryan Powell Maritime Cargo Services Fillies' Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Willie Musson's strike rate?
Willie Musson has won 120 of 1,412 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Willie Musson do best at?
Yarmouth by strike rate: 10 wins from 70 runners (14.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Willie Musson?
Stevie Donohoe, with 303 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (8.9%).
What is Willie Musson's Fair A/E?
0.91, from 1,402 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).