Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). New recruits from other yards win at 12% first time out (33 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 590 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Oct–JanJamie Hamilton: 6.5% from 216New recruits: 12.1%Claiming riders: 9.8%
The read
It is weakest at Musselburgh (0% over 46 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 12.1% (n=33, Fair A/E 1.42). Jamie Hamilton rides 37% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.5%, A/E 0.90). The yard also reads well beyond 3m (23.5%, n=34). The stable star of the record: Skyhill (IRE) — 10 wins from 49 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Jan.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.2%−2.4
n=173 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −80.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.1%+4.5
n=33 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −5.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.6
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.6
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.6
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
When favourite
29.4%
n=17 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −0.37
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.8%+2.2
n=183 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −17.42
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Beyond 3m23.5% vs 7.6% · n=34
On last-time-out winners17.4% vs 7.6% · n=46
With Mr T Hamilton18.2% vs 7.6% · n=33
With C&D winners15% vs 7.6% · n=113
At Musselburgh0% vs 7.6% · n=46
With Paul Mulrennan15.2% vs 7.6% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle287155.2%−138.42
Chase1932110.9%−47.51
Flat9399.7%−5.50
NH Flat1700%−17.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good188147.4%−91.34
Good to Soft13164.6%−55.00
Soft131107.6%−52.29
Standard (AW)74912.2%+13.50
Heavy49612.2%−6.30
Good to Firm1700%−17.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kelso8667%−24.12
Hexham7745.2%−45.67
Ayr5747%−27.00
Perth5411.9%−42.00
Carlisle49510.2%+0.25
Sedgefield46510.9%−10.92
Musselburgh4600%−46.00
Newcastle4337%−24.00
Newcastle (AW)42511.9%−4.00
Southwell (AW)21314.3%+18.50
Wetherby17317.6%+10.33
Cartmel1500%−15.00
Wolverhampton (AW)9111.1%+1.00
Catterick8225%+4.70
Hamilton400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5256197.4%−110.72
Class 4206146.8%−81.04
Class 61061211.3%+5.33
Class 31700%−17.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite22731.8%1.15+3.96
2nd–3rd fav961717.7%1.12−12.39
4th–6th fav222146.3%0.84−82.00
7th+ in betting25072.8%0.85−118.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f214177.9%−33.42
2m5f – 3m13875.1%−105.62
1m5f – 2m11343.5%−79.67
6f – 7f67811.9%+10.50
Over 3m34823.5%+13.78
1m – 1m1f1000%−10.00
1m2f – 1m4f900%−9.00
Under 6f5120%+5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085120%+7.00
2009100%−1.00
20107114.3%+5.00
201115320%+0.83
201212216.7%+10.00
20133239.4%+2.33
20144149.8%−13.25
20154924.1%−34.00
20164124.9%−16.00
20174600%−46.00
20182926.9%−2.00
20193326.1%−23.67
20202428.3%−18.12
20214224.8%−29.00
20224249.5%−17.00
202360610%−2.75
202452815.4%+18.20
20253700%−37.00
20262214.5%−12.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps454367.9%−128.59
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners232219.1%−40.92
11-13 runners16353.1%−110.00
5-7 runners129129.3%−62.76
14-16 runners5547.3%+3.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners5360%+8.25
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 46 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 46 horses listed, 31 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J P G Hamilton (3) and Gordon Elliott (2); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1088773400101011
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
45
Archived wins
£297k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Drakeholes (GB) — Spreadex Sports Best Odds On Sunderland Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Newcastle (AW) · Dec 2022 · Class 4
£5,832
Drakeholes (GB) — Boost Your Acca At Betmgm Classified Stakes Newcastle (AW) · Mar 2024 · Class 6
£5,025
Skyhill (IRE) — Go Racing With Vickers.Bet Handicap Chase Sedgefield · Dec 2022 · Class 5
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,639 runs since 2013 (842 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.8% from 327.
Cloudings (IRE)2.8% · 1–36
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,887 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Kayf Tara (GB)2.9% · 1–34
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,756 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Beneficial (GB)9.1% · 3–33
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 608 · newest first
The latest 50 of 608 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 February 2005 to 27 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Alison Hamilton's strike rate?
Alison Hamilton has won 45 of 590 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alison Hamilton do best at?
Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 42 runners (11.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Alison Hamilton?
Jamie Hamilton, with 216 runners since 2008 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (6.5%).
Is Alison Hamilton in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Alison Hamilton's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 590 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Alison Hamilton·SR 7.6%·A/E 0.97
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