Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90).
Deterministic profile computed from 851 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceRobert Dunne: 2.2% from 91Claiming riders: 5.8%
The read
The record is strongest at Worcester (11.8%, n=76) and Towcester (12.9%, n=31) — all clear of the yard's 5.2% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.62 and −128.50 to a £1 stake over 223 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Robert Dunne rides 11% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (2.2% vs 5.2%, A/E 0.48). The stable star of the record: Jigsaw Financial (IRE) — 7 wins from 39 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.7%−2.5
n=223 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −128.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
2.3%−2.9
n=88 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −64.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.2
n=46 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −46.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.2
n=38 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −38.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.2
n=35 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −35.00
When favourite
32%
n=25 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +0.57
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.8%+0.6
n=310 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −123.43
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners14.3% vs 5.2% · n=63
With Andrew Glassonbury12.9% vs 5.2% · n=70
On last-time-out winners13.6% vs 5.2% · n=44
At Worcester11.8% vs 5.2% · n=76
At Towcester12.9% vs 5.2% · n=31
With Gavin Sheehan12.9% vs 5.2% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle518285.4%−217.43
Chase174105.7%−95.75
NH Flat8000%−80.00
Flat7967.6%−28.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good256228.6%−53.68
Soft19542.1%−161.50
Good to Soft16274.3%−87.25
Heavy10754.7%−58.75
Good to Firm9255.4%−34.50
Standard (AW)3712.7%−24.00
Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Exeter11332.7%−79.50
Chepstow8766.9%−47.00
Taunton8722.3%−49.75
Worcester76911.8%+8.25
Newton Abbot6411.6%−58.00
Uttoxeter6434.7%−43.43
Wincanton4924.1%−8.00
Stratford3812.6%−21.00
Towcester31412.9%−0.75
Wolverhampton (AW)2700%−27.00
Southwell25312%−12.50
Ffos Las2100%−21.00
Newbury2015%−5.00
Warwick1815.6%−14.00
Fontwell1500%−15.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5396297.3%−100.25
Class 430493%−243.43
Class 610044%−59.00
Class 33925.1%−7.00
Class 1700%−7.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite311032.3%1.32+4.07
2nd–3rd fav104109.6%0.68−46.25
4th–6th fav208157.2%1.02−54.50
7th+ in betting50891.8%0.74−325.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f315206.3%−92.75
1m5f – 2m269155.6%−121.93
2m5f – 3m17542.3%−152.50
6f – 7f24312.5%−3.50
Over 3m2400%−24.00
1m – 1m1f1900%−19.00
1m2f – 1m4f1700%−17.00
Under 6f8225%+9.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085447.4%−16.50
20099588.4%−4.43
20103425.9%−14.00
20117522.7%−57.00
20125347.5%−19.75
20136534.6%−37.00
20147468.1%−43.50
20158911.1%−83.00
20168689.3%−23.50
20177411.4%−64.00
20185511.8%−44.00
20192414.2%+10.00
2020700%−7.00
20214324.7%−2.00
20222314.3%−16.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps566386.7%−174.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners266134.9%−178.00
11-13 runners259145.4%−118.18
14-16 runners157117%+3.50
5-7 runners10754.7%−74.00
17+ runners4812.1%−41.00
2-4 runners1400%−14.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 129 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Jones (3) and Gerald Ham (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
11 have since run for another yard, most often for Ben Lund (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
44438611610651
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
49
Archived wins
£293k
Prize money
2016
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Noble Buck (IRE) — Press & Journal Highland National Handicap Chase Perth · Apr 2006 · Class 4
£15,658
Tail Of The Bank (IRE) — Stanjames.com Supports Greatwood Novices' Handicap Hurdle Newbury · Mar 2010 · Class 3
£6,505
Persian Warrior (IRE) — Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Novices' Hurdle Stratford · May 2009 · Class 3
Progeny have won 11% of 4,124 runs since 2009 (285 horses).
Witness Box (USA)7.8% · 4–51
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,675 runs since 2008 (194 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 173.
Sholokhov (IRE)5.6% · 2–36
Progeny have won 12.5% of 4,275 runs since 2008 (422 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.9% from 157.
Exceed and Excel (AUS)14.3% · 5–35
Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,038 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Kapgarde (FR)6.7% · 2–30
Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,637 runs since 2008 (725 horses).
Thowra (FR)17.9% · 5–28
Progeny have won 3.2% of 252 runs since 2008 (37 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 952 · newest first
The latest 50 of 952 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 February 2005 to 4 November 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Laura Young's strike rate?
Laura Young has won 44 of 851 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Laura Young do best at?
Towcester by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 runners (12.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Laura Young?
Robert Dunne, with 91 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.2%).
What is Laura Young's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 850 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Laura Young·SR 5.2%·A/E 0.90
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