Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 70 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08).
Deterministic profile computed from 913 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 26 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFired May–JulFresh horses: 9.6%26.2% when favouriteCharles Bishop: 11% from 191Sent off the favourite in 7% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Goodwood (18.6%, n=43), clear of the yard's 9.5% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=38, Fair A/E 0.00). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.40 and +41.33 to a £1 stake over 136 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Charles Bishop rode 21% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (11%, A/E 1.19) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (17.6%, n=51). The record read poorly in Hurdle races — 2.8% over 71 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Investec Click & Invest Mile Handicap at Epsom Downs (Jun 2018, £31,125). The stable star of the record was Franco's Secret (GB) — 7 wins from 44 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired May–Jul.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.6%+0.1
n=136 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +41.33
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.3%−1.2
n=36 · A/E 0.91 · £1 +9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−9.5
n=38 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −38.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+0.5
n=30 · A/E 1.64 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.7%−4.8
n=43 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −37.12
When favourite
26.2%
n=65 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −6.73
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.3%−1.2
n=206 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −59.87
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
20%+10.5
n=5 · A/E 5.41 · £1 +7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners19.6% vs 9.5% · n=92
With debutants0% vs 9.5% · n=38
At Goodwood18.6% vs 9.5% · n=43
With horses switching code1.7% vs 9.5% · n=60
Off a 0-7-day break17.6% vs 9.5% · n=51
In Hurdle races2.8% vs 9.5% · n=71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat8218510.4%+1.30
Hurdle7122.8%−62.62
NH Flat1900%−19.00
Chase200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)504479.3%−33.66
Good to Firm1321410.6%+7.58
Good1161512.9%+13.13
Good to Soft7356.8%−12.50
Soft6369.5%−31.87
Heavy1700%−17.00
Firm800%−8.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW)257218.2%−79.12
Lingfield (AW)1942211.3%+41.63
Windsor56814.3%−0.50
Goodwood43818.6%+55.13
Wolverhampton (AW)30310%+23.33
Newbury28310.7%+8.50
Ascot2813.6%−19.00
Bath2528%+18.00
Sandown2300%−23.00
Salisbury2200%−22.00
Fontwell2129.5%−12.62
Chelmsford City (AW)1700%−17.00
Warwick1400%−14.00
Lingfield13323.1%+8.00
Plumpton1300%−13.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5343339.6%−71.41
Class 4229219.2%−64.62
Class 62222511.3%+108.13
Class 37445.4%−55.67
Class 23525.7%−3.00
Class 15120%+7.00
Class 75120%−2.75
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite751925.3%0.99−6.73
2nd–3rd fav1633219.6%1.22+14.91
4th–6th fav277227.9%1.01−66.50
7th+ in betting398143.5%1.07−24.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f2662710.2%−79.87
6f – 7f2493012%+87.42
1m – 1m1f1491711.4%+38.25
1m5f – 2m10654.7%−50.00
Under 6f9555.3%−64.50
2m1f – 2m4f3638.3%−1.62
2m5f – 3m1000%−10.00
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200925520%+70.50
2010931516.1%+10.84
201111121.8%−89.00
20128078.8%−22.62
20136158.2%+49.00
2014911011%−10.25
20159599.5%−6.75
201610498.7%−44.62
20179588.4%−29.75
2018771114.3%+35.00
20195935.1%−43.00
202022313.6%−1.67
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7028111.5%+63.30
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3513510%−10.54
11-13 runners295299.8%+59.63
5-7 runners1451812.4%−31.66
14-16 runners9433.2%−78.75
17+ runners2414.2%−20.50
2-4 runners4125%−0.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 75 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 30 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mouse Hamilton-Fairley (2) and Paul Henderson (2); 30 had their first archived run for this yard.
16 have since run for another yard, most often for Simon Hodgson (6); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
17929111212965813
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
90
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£612k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 15 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Medburn Dream (GB) — Investec Click & Invest Mile Handicap Epsom Downs · Jun 2018 · Class 2
£31,125
Medburn Cutler (GB) — Compton Beauchamp Estates Ltd Silver Bar Handicap Newbury · Apr 2018 · Class 2
£25,876
Continuum (GB) — John Smith's Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Handicap) York · Jul 2014 · Listed
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,596 runs since 2008 (395 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.6% from 513. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.6% from 1,128.
Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,930 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.6% from 795.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 964 · newest first
The latest 50 of 964 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 28 June 2020.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Peter Hedger's strike rate?
Peter Hedger has won 87 of 913 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.5% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Hedger do best at?
Goodwood by strike rate: 8 wins from 43 runners (18.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Peter Hedger?
Charles Bishop, with 191 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (11%).
What is Peter Hedger's Fair A/E?
1.08, from 910 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Peter Hedger·SR 9.5%·A/E 1.08
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