What is Archie Watson's strike rate?

Archie Watson has won 863 of 5,830 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Archie Watson do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 66 wins from 339 runners (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Archie Watson?

Hollie Doyle, with 1,752 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 321 (18.3%).

Is Archie Watson in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Archie Watson's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 5,790 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Archie Watson

5,830 runners in the lifetime window · 798 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 1.1% of 452 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 7 Nov 2026.

Last runner 2 days ago 96% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

863–5,830

Wins / Runs

14.8%

Strike rate

n=5,830

1,986 (34%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=5,790 · 0.90 incl. margin

−1,210.03

£1 level stake

n=5,830 at SP · −20.8%

£12.7m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 310 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). New recruits from other yards win at 23% first time out (210 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,830 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Fresh horses: 19.1% 38.5% when favourite Hollie Doyle: 18.3% from 1,752 New recruits: 23.3% Sends off the favourite in 15% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ayr (30.2%, n=63), clear of the yard's 14.8% baseline. It is weakest at Newmarket (3.7% over 81 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 23.3% (n=210, Fair A/E 1.47), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 8.8% (n=533, Fair A/E 0.94). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 19.1% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.40 and +140.34 to a £1 stake over 644 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 9.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −264.68 to a £1 stake over 420 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Hollie Doyle rides 30% of the entries and edges the yard's average (18.3% vs 14.8%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (24%, n=221). 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the King's Stand Stakes at Ascot (Jun 2023, £355,855). The stable star of the record: Corinthia Knight (IRE) — 16 wins from 86 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

19.1%+4.3

n=644 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +140.34

New recruits · first run for the yard

23.3%+8.5

n=210 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +72.40

Debutants · first career start

17%+2.2

n=588 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −124.28

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.5%−5.3

n=420 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −264.68

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13.7%−1.1

n=124 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +6.95

When favourite

38.5%

n=860 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −94.42

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.6%−5.2

n=647 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −258.01

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.8%−6.0

n=533 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −50.84

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Daniel Tudhope 28.6% vs 14.8% · n=133

At Ayr 30.2% vs 14.8% · n=63

With William Cox 4% vs 14.8% · n=125

Off a break of 180+ days 24% vs 14.8% · n=221

At Newmarket 3.7% vs 14.8% · n=81

At Ascot 5.6% vs 14.8% · n=196

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 5,604 832 14.8% −1,184.56

Hurdle 148 24 16.2% +9.03

NH Flat 47 5 10.6% −12.50

Chase 31 2 6.5% −22.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,814 451 16% −604.06

Good to Firm 988 155 15.7% −131.66

Good 977 137 14% −204.71

Good to Soft 456 44 9.6% −188.44

Soft 426 53 12.4% −55.49

Heavy 120 14 11.7% −8.89

Firm 48 9 18.8% −15.78

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton 664 101 15.2% −162.90

Lingfield (AW) 561 105 18.7% −57.69

Kempton (AW) 513 73 14.2% −189.94

Chelmsford (AW) 399 54 13.5% −81.55

Newcastle (AW) 339 66 19.5% −34.04

Southwell (AW) 304 45 14.8% −76.84

Ascot 196 11 5.6% −78.67

Chepstow 126 24 19% −10.41

Yarmouth 123 17 13.8% −50.62

Newbury 117 12 10.3% +15.13

Windsor 112 14 12.5% −44.32

Bath 111 18 16.2% +4.75

Salisbury 111 16 14.4% −13.52

Haydock 109 13 11.9% −24.96

Leicester 105 16 15.2% −17.81

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,224 373 16.8% −512.71

Class 4 1,220 192 15.7% −245.42

Class 6 964 142 14.7% −150.23

Class 1 533 47 8.8% −50.84

Class 2 470 53 11.3% −121.27

Class 3 387 53 13.7% −107.56

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 964 351 36.4% 1.05 −127.70

2nd–3rd fav 1,652 339 20.5% 1.16 −33.43

4th–6th fav 1,862 142 7.6% 0.90 −400.90

7th+ in betting 1,352 31 2.3% 0.67 −648.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Corinthia Knight (IRE) 86 16 30 18 Nov 23

Attain (GB)from Julia Feilden 61 6 21 22 Jul 20

Luna Magic (GB)from Lydia Pearce 56 8 23 12 Dec 24

Alazwar (IRE) 53 8 16 28 Oct 26

Throne Hall (GB)from Kevin Ryan 48 5 9 26 Nov 25

Amor de Mi Vida (FR) 43 6 15 2 Sep 23

Tempus (GB)from Roger Charlton 40 5 10 29 Oct 25

Captain Lars (SAF)from Derek Shaw 37 11 20 21 Apr 19

Mighty Gurkha (IRE)then Thomas Faulkner 35 4 9 24 Sep 23

Excel Power (IRE) 34 8 12 23 Oct 24

Percy Prosecco (GB)from Noel Williams 34 4 9 3 Aug 22

Chevallier (GB)from K R Burke · then Michael Attwater 33 5 15 4 Mar 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 798 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 29 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Fahey (3) and James Given (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Richard Fahey (2); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

2 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

161417171513151815111215

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHollie Doyle

30% of all rides
18.3% SR · A/E 1.10

RiderRWSR£1

Hollie Doyle 1,752 321 18.3% −238.64

Luke Morris 742 92 12.4% −205.55

Miss Brodie Hampson 391 48 12.3% −22.66

Edward Greatrex 372 64 17.2% −72.73

Oisin Murphy 269 63 23.4% −11.27

Adam McNamara 242 23 9.5% −112.74

Pierre-Louis Jamin 147 13 8.8% −46.90

Daniel Tudhope 133 38 28.6% +27.09

Joshua Bryan 133 11 8.3% −71.56

William Cox 125 5 4% −37.62

Taylor Fisher 122 9 7.4% −69.64

Kieran Shoemark 116 14 12.1% −42.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→

863

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£12.7m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 140 wins

Bradsell (GB) — King's Stand Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Ascot · Jun 2023 · Group 1

£355,855

Bradsell (GB) — Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) York · Aug 2024 · Group 1

£283,550

Bradsell (GB) — Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Sep 2024 · Group 1

£236,000

Notable horses

Corinthia Knight (IRE) Captain Lars (SAF) Luna Magic (GB) Alazwar (IRE) Excel Power (IRE) Stag Horn (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Society Rock (IRE) 21.6% · 37–171

Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,837 runs since 2017 (175 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 233.

Kingman (GB) 12% · 20–167

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,529 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.

Mayson (GB) 20% · 30–150

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,391 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Showcasing (GB) 14.7% · 22–150

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,654 runs since 2014 (999 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.5% · 15–131

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,865 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Kodiac (GB) 13.7% · 18–131

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,601 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,830 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,830 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 August 2016 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Intsaar (IRE)J: Miss Remie Morgan AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 5 ran 4th 18/1

05 Nov 26 Southwell (AW) Celestial Fire (IRE)J: Hollie Doyle Make The Move To Midnite Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 1st 7/4F

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Palliser (GB)J: Hollie Doyle Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 2nd 9/2

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Tausret (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 2nd 11/8

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Alazwar (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson AJA Championships Finale Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 33/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Pride Of Nepal (GB)J: Miss Serena Brotherton AJA Championships Finale Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 50/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) La Belle Forest (IRE)J: Luke Morris Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 14/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Prosewriter (IRE)J: Billy Loughnane Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 100/30

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Ezenli (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Tractor Drivers Go Free On Agriculture Raceday 'newcomers' National Hunt Flat Race (gbb Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 4th 12/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) The Honey Thief (IRE)J: Luke Morris Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 14/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Palliser (GB)J: Luke Morris AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd January 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 14/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Paris Babe (FR)J: Gina Mangan Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 28/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Rogue Enforcer (GB)J: Rossa Ryan William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Heavy · 9 ran 9th 14/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Persian Gate (IRE)J: Luke Morris Winter Ladies Night Saturday 28th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 8/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Spartan Arrow (IRE)J: Oisin Orr William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap StakesClass 2 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Alazwar (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Watch Racing Replays At racingtv.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 4th 20/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Shorien (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 7th 18/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Chianti (GB)J: Luke Morris Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 12/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Palliser (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 7/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Scarlet Moon (GB)J: Oisin Murphy Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 7/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 5 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Archie Watson's strike rate?: Archie Watson has won 863 of 5,830 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Archie Watson do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 66 wins from 339 runners (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Archie Watson?: Hollie Doyle, with 1,752 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 321 (18.3%).
Is Archie Watson in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Archie Watson's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 5,790 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.