Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.80).
Deterministic profile computed from 353 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Jul–Aug
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.5% (n=65, Fair A/E 0.36). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.73 and −9.50 to a £1 stake over 120 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (9.6%, n=73). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 38 runners, 4.8pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.5%−3.3
n=65 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −59.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
2.3%−2.5
n=44 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −38.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.8
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+5.2
n=10 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.8
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −2.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.2%−0.6
n=120 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −9.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good to Firm going9.6% vs 4.8% · n=73
With Rowan Scott0% vs 4.8% · n=39
Off a break of 180+ days0% vs 4.8% · n=38
On Good to Soft going0% vs 4.8% · n=37
Off a 15-30-day break7.3% vs 4.8% · n=109
With a new jockey booking3% vs 4.8% · n=198 · A/E 0.66
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat331175.1%−139.87
Hurdle1200%−12.00
NH Flat900%−9.00
Chase100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)12643.2%−94.00
Good8144.9%+10.50
Good to Firm7379.6%−29.37
Good to Soft3700%−37.00
Soft2414.2%−19.00
Heavy7114.3%+12.00
Firm500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW)4412.3%−31.00
Hamilton3113.2%−23.50
Wolverhampton (AW)2713.7%−21.00
Lingfield (AW)2528%−12.00
Ayr2114.8%−14.00
Musselburgh1700%−17.00
Kempton1700%−17.00
Chepstow1500%−15.00
Ffos Las13215.4%+17.00
Bath1200%−12.00
Nottingham11218.2%+3.75
Southwell (AW)1000%−10.00
Newmarket10110%−3.00
Yarmouth9111.1%−6.12
Windsor8112.5%−4.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 6171105.8%−90.37
Class 513964.3%−38.50
Class 43612.8%−26.00
Class 3500%−5.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9222.2%0.79−2.62
2nd–3rd fav43614%0.93−9.25
4th–6th fav9766.2%0.91−45.00
7th+ in betting20431.5%0.54−105.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f10654.7%−11.62
1m – 1m1f9655.2%−61.75
Under 6f6323.2%−36.50
1m2f – 1m4f6046.7%−29.00
1m5f – 2m2114.8%−16.00
2m1f – 2m4f500%−5.00
2m5f – 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081600%−16.00
20101600%−16.00
20115547.3%+36.50
20121000%−10.00
2013911011%−18.87
20141400%−14.00
20201800%−18.00
20212300%−23.00
2022700%−7.00
20231000%−10.00
20241600%−16.00
20253100%−31.00
20264636.5%−18.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps252135.2%−148.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners12475.6%−4.00
8-10 runners11943.4%−91.75
5-7 runners6146.6%−29.12
14-16 runners4624.3%−34.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 72 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 41 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Keiran Burke (5) and Patrick Leech (4); 19 had their first archived run for this yard.
30 have since run for another yard, most often for Nick Littmoden (11) and W H Harrison (6); 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
25000102994300
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
22
Archived wins
£136k
Prize money
2013
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Bijou Dan (GB) — Red Devils Display At Wolverhampton 17th July Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Jul 2006 · Class 4
£6,477
Daneside (IRE) — London Business Centres Supporting The Racehorse Sanctuary Handicap Sandown · Sep 2011 · Class 4
Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,220 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 11% from 317. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 3.9% from 204. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 10.4% from 135. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.1% from 293.
Danehill Dancer (IRE)7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,714 runs since 2008 (217 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 461 · newest first
The latest 50 of 461 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 April 2005 to 20 July 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Gary Harrison's strike rate?
Gary Harrison has won 17 of 353 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Gary Harrison do best at?
Hamilton by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 runners (3.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Gary Harrison's Fair A/E?
0.80, from 348 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Gary Harrison·SR 4.8%·A/E 0.80
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