What is John O'Shea's strike rate?

John O'Shea has won 229 of 2,958 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John O'Shea do best at?

Bangor-on-Dee by strike rate: 9 wins from 79 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John O'Shea?

Ciaran Mckee, with 365 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (7.4%).

Is John O'Shea in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is John O'Shea's Fair A/E?

0.94, from 2,939 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John O'Shea

2,958 runners in the lifetime window · 212 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

229–2,958

Wins / Runs

7.7%

Strike rate

n=2,958

648 (22%)

Placed

0.94

Fair A/E

n=2,939 · 0.81 incl. margin

−938.38

£1 level stake

n=2,958 at SP · −31.7%

£1.43m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 160 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,958 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 30.1% when favourite Ciaran Mckee: 7.4% from 365 Claiming riders: 8.7% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fontwell (16.2%, n=37), clear of the yard's 7.7% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=73, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet a horse having headgear put back on after a bare run: 5.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −126.33 to a £1 stake over 252 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Ciaran Mckee rides 12% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.4%, A/E 0.93). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (14.7%, n=258). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Casino 36 Stockport "Fixed Brush" Novices' Hurdle at Haydock (Nov 2006, £19,518). The stable star of the record: Swendab (IRE) — 17 wins from 147 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.8%−3.9

n=502 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −145.17

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.5%−3.2

n=112 · A/E 0.73 · £1 +21.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−7.7

n=73 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −73.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.1%+1.4

n=77 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −20.75

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.2%−2.5

n=252 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −126.33

When favourite

30.1%

n=156 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −15.03

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.7%+1.0

n=1,447 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −284.30

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.7

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 18.7% vs 7.7% · n=235

Off a 0-7-day break 14.7% vs 7.7% · n=258

With Rossa Ryan 16.2% vs 7.7% · n=74

With debutants 0% vs 7.7% · n=73

With horses switching code 2.2% vs 7.7% · n=272

At Fontwell 16.2% vs 7.7% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,940 161 8.3% −570.12

Hurdle 749 47 6.3% −368.26

Chase 162 14 8.6% −6.25

NH Flat 107 7 6.5% +6.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 771 47 6.1% −270.97

Good 714 60 8.4% −225.57

Good to Firm 516 53 10.3% −99.65

Good to Soft 382 24 6.3% −131.07

Soft 360 29 8.1% −141.37

Heavy 120 7 5.8% −44.75

Firm 95 9 9.5% −25.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 502 56 11.2% −32.92

Wolverhampton (AW) 363 19 5.2% −102.50

Kempton (AW) 209 14 6.7% −83.25

Bath 197 14 7.1% −100.30

Ffos Las 114 9 7.9% −58.50

Hereford 93 6 6.5% −36.17

Chelmsford City (AW) 91 7 7.7% −26.12

Stratford 90 6 6.7% −28.50

Ludlow 89 5 5.6% −40.50

Lingfield (AW) 86 6 7% −38.93

Bangor-on-Dee 79 9 11.4% +22.82

Windsor 79 3 3.8% −52.00

Uttoxeter 77 7 9.1% −15.42

Newton Abbot 73 5 6.8% −32.20

Brighton 72 6 8.3% −46.09

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,104 89 8.1% −367.09

Class 6 1,064 95 8.9% −150.15

Class 4 593 39 6.6% −295.14

Class 3 124 3 2.4% −97.50

Class 2 40 0 0% −40.00

Class 7 25 3 12% +19.50

Class 1 8 0 0% −8.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 200 57 28.5% 1.01 −22.15

2nd–3rd fav 458 75 16.4% 0.99 −41.23

4th–6th fav 935 69 7.4% 0.97 −229.00

7th+ in betting 1,365 28 2.1% 0.68 −646.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 800 72 9% −142.09

1m5f – 2m 495 31 6.3% −159.16

1m2f – 1m4f 380 28 7.4% −170.68

Under 6f 375 35 9.3% −71.56

2m1f – 2m4f 333 20 6% −139.15

1m – 1m1f 310 20 6.5% −142.42

2m5f – 3m 223 19 8.5% −103.20

Over 3m 42 4 9.5% −10.12

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 207 12 5.8% −128.74

2009 82 4 4.9% −34.00

2010 104 6 5.8% +49.00

2011 136 13 9.6% −34.68

2012 148 10 6.8% −86.90

2013 172 18 10.5% −71.09

2014 125 2 1.6% −110.25

2015 188 22 11.7% +3.13

2016 224 15 6.7% −127.55

2017 208 19 9.1% −77.12

2018 194 19 9.8% +9.95

2019 195 13 6.7% −77.25

2020 87 1 1.1% −74.00

2021 147 17 11.6% +87.00

2022 199 22 11.1% −36.14

2023 162 8 4.9% −78.50

2024 162 14 8.6% −50.92

2025 124 9 7.3% −56.45

2026 94 5 5.3% −43.87

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,192 185 8.4% −486.12

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,068 76 7.1% −420.59

11-13 runners 869 51 5.9% −290.76

5-7 runners 631 81 12.8% −23.80

14-16 runners 303 13 4.3% −167.25

2-4 runners 45 7 15.6% +0.02

17+ runners 42 1 2.4% −36.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Swendab (IRE) 147 17 47 30 Oct 19

Peak Storm (GB)from John Gallagher 84 8 24 19 Jul 18

Major Valentine (GB) 82 15 26 27 May 22

Some Nightmare (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 75 9 28 27 Sep 26

Nicky Nutjob (GER)from Jeff Pearce 68 5 11 8 Oct 15

Kinglami (GB)from Brian Gubby 62 7 15 19 Oct 20

Letter Of The Law (IRE)from George Boughey 57 3 15 20 Oct 25

Clement (IRE)from Eve Johnson Houghton · then Marjorie Fife 54 5 8 27 Feb 19

Cougar Kid (IRE)from Philip Hide 53 4 18 26 Nov 20

Stafford Charlie (GB) 52 2 4 17 Oct 15

The Jailer (GB) 50 5 12 26 Jan 13

Macs Dilemma (IRE)from E Sheehy 46 7 14 27 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 212 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 36 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Eve Johnson Houghton (2) and John Price (2); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Archie Watson (2); 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

65612999117348

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCiaran Mckee

12% of all rides
7.4% SR · A/E 0.93

RiderRWSR£1

Ciaran Mckee 365 27 7.4% −80.00

Luke Morris 159 16 10.1% −53.12

Gina Mangan 148 8 5.4% −109.25

Miss Brodie Hampson 113 7 6.2% −24.62

Charlie Wallis 104 4 3.8% −25.00

William Carson 92 7 7.6% −31.00

Dave Crosse 81 4 4.9% −28.12

Rossa Ryan 74 12 16.2% +26.70

Ben Robinson 61 8 13.1% +4.50

Fergus Sweeney 60 3 5% −33.00

Miss Kate Leahy 56 6 10.7% +17.75

Adam McNamara 54 1 1.9% −48.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

272

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.73m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 22 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Kanpai I (IRE) — Casino 36 Stockport "Fixed Brush" Novices' Hurdle Haydock · Nov 2006 · Class 2

£19,518

Kanpai (IRE) — Persian War Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) Chepstow · Oct 2006 · Grade 2

£17,186

Tom Bell (IRE) — K W Bell Construction Handicap Hurdle Class D Hereford · May 2005 · Class 3

£10,589

Notable horses

Swendab (IRE) Major Valentine (GB) Some Nightmare (IRE) Peak Storm (GB) Kanpai (IRE) The Jailer (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Trans Island (GB) 11.7% · 18–154

Progeny have won 9% of 4,741 runs since 2008 (295 horses).

Dream Ahead (USA) 10.6% · 12–113

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,695 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.

Sleeping Indian (GB) 8.3% · 8–96

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,714 runs since 2008 (238 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.9% from 108.

Major Cadeaux (GB) 18.3% · 15–82

Progeny have won 10.6% of 1,360 runs since 2008 (81 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 314. Weakest on Good going: 6.3% from 288.

Bertolini (USA) 9.5% · 7–74

Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).

Captain Rio (GB) 5.4% · 4–74

Progeny have won 9.5% of 6,912 runs since 2008 (423 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,675 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,675 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 27 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) The Bear Of Saints (FR)J: William Carson Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 12/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Macs Dilemma (IRE)J: William Carson Saisons D'Or 100th Race Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 80/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 22/1

13 Oct 26 Leicester Massa Go Go (GB)J: Tyler Heard British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 12th 300/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Macs Dilemma (IRE)J: William Carson Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 50/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Romanovich (IRE)J: William Carson Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 22/1

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)J: Miss Brodie Hampson Clearwater Dc Ltd Environmental Solutions Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 14/1

27 Sep 26 Ffos Las Marisitta (GB)J: William Carson Bridge, For All Family Occasions Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 50/1

27 Sep 26 Ffos Las Some Nightmare (IRE)J: William Carson Bridge, Family Run And Proud Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Soft · 4 ran 4th 100/30

27 Sep 26 Ffos Las The Bear Of Saints (FR)J: William Carson Alex And Salvo Welcome You To The Bridge Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 10/1

23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier)Class 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 9th 33/1

12 Sep 26 Bath Some Nightmare (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Andersons Drainage Serving The South West Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/4

09 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Maywedance (IRE)J: Jack Mitchell Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 5th 22/1

07 Sep 26 Windsor Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Matchbook Signup- Get 20% Back On Losses Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 4th 14/1

31 Aug 26 Chepstow Some Nightmare (IRE)J: William Carson Tom's Big Bike Ride Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 7/1

31 Aug 26 Chepstow Marisitta (GB)J: William Carson Runtech Ltd Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 9/1

24 Aug 26 Windsor The Bear Of Saints (FR)J: Rob Hornby Windsor Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 7th 28/1

18 Aug 26 Chepstow Marisitta (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Saxon Automobiles Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 14/1

18 Aug 26 Chepstow Some Nightmare (IRE)J: Gina Mangan Saxon Automobiles Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 11/1

15 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Punchbowl Flyer (IRE)J: Alexandra Egan Follow @Attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John O'Shea's strike rate?: John O'Shea has won 229 of 2,958 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John O'Shea do best at?: Bangor-on-Dee by strike rate: 9 wins from 79 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John O'Shea?: Ciaran Mckee, with 365 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (7.4%).
Is John O'Shea in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John O'Shea's Fair A/E?: 0.94, from 2,939 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.