What is Mike Murphy's strike rate?

Mike Murphy has won 211 of 2,036 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.4% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Mike Murphy do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 27 wins from 168 runners (16.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Mike Murphy?

Shane Kelly, with 255 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (12.5%).

Is Mike Murphy in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Mike Murphy's Fair A/E?

1.08, from 2,024 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Mike Murphy

2,036 runners in the lifetime window · 188 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

211–2,036

Wins / Runs

10.4%

Strike rate

n=2,036

554 (27%)

Placed

1.08

Fair A/E

n=2,024 · 0.93 incl. margin

−560.16

£1 level stake

n=2,036 at SP · −27.5%

£1.59m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,036 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 36% when favourite Shane Kelly: 12.5% from 255 Claiming riders: 11.5% Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

It is weakest at Ascot (2% over 49 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 2.5% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.33). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −212.40 to a £1 stake over 300 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Shane Kelly rides 13% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.5% vs 10.4%, A/E 1.33) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (26%, n=77). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.9% over 108 runners, 8.5pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Benandonner (USA) — 8 wins from 52 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.3%−6.1

n=300 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −212.40

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.1%−2.3

n=99 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −57.49

Debutants · first career start

3.4%−7.0

n=89 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −35.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.5%−5.9

n=66 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −3.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

2.5%−7.9

n=40 · A/E 0.33 · £1 −28.00

When favourite

36%

n=172 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +7.24

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.5%+1.1

n=295 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −23.82

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.4

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 26% vs 10.4% · n=77

On last-time-out winners 22.6% vs 10.4% · n=212

Off a break of 180+ days 1.9% vs 10.4% · n=108

With Daniel Muscutt 17.3% vs 10.4% · n=191

With C&D winners 16.5% vs 10.4% · n=375

At Ascot 2% vs 10.4% · n=49

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,008 211 10.5% −532.16

Hurdle 18 0 0% −18.00

NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,180 137 11.6% −309.21

Good to Firm 353 31 8.8% −85.15

Good 277 22 7.9% −94.17

Good to Soft 114 13 11.4% −44.20

Soft 85 8 9.4% −0.43

Heavy 19 0 0% −19.00

Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton 360 30 8.3% −117.46

Wolverhampton (AW) 248 36 14.5% −41.42

Chelmsford (AW) 217 26 12% −26.05

Lingfield (AW) 182 17 9.3% −82.72

Southwell (AW) 168 27 16.1% −38.29

Windsor 107 9 8.4% +2.10

Leicester 91 9 9.9% −27.55

Yarmouth 88 12 13.6% +0.57

Sandown 56 6 10.7% −9.00

Nottingham 55 4 7.3% −31.75

Newmarket 55 8 14.5% +41.88

Ascot 49 1 2% −38.00

Lingfield 44 4 9.1% −14.29

Newmarket 43 4 9.3% +1.33

Brighton 36 4 11.1% −16.40

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 735 99 13.5% −93.91

Class 5 604 56 9.3% −251.02

Class 4 389 37 9.5% −152.48

Class 2 139 6 4.3% −78.50

Class 3 137 10 7.3% +27.00

Class 7 17 3 17.6% +3.75

Class 1 12 0 0% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 211 77 36.5% 1.30 +27.00

2nd–3rd fav 371 63 17% 1.06 −48.66

4th–6th fav 621 55 8.9% 1.14 +1.50

7th+ in betting 833 16 1.9% 0.59 −540.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 853 92 10.8% −250.40

1m – 1m1f 559 56 10% −195.87

1m2f – 1m4f 290 24 8.3% +1.26

Under 6f 223 30 13.5% −68.15

1m5f – 2m 91 9 9.9% −27.00

2m1f – 2m4f 15 0 0% −15.00

2m5f – 3m 5 0 0% −5.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 47 3 6.4% −24.00

2009 73 8 11% −0.50

2010 102 12 11.8% +31.25

2011 120 9 7.5% −48.64

2012 131 20 15.3% −29.58

2013 161 15 9.3% −75.96

2014 126 10 7.9% −62.25

2015 121 15 12.4% −4.19

2016 123 9 7.3% −43.00

2017 127 11 8.7% −38.43

2018 118 18 15.3% +0.11

2019 135 8 5.9% −91.00

2020 127 13 10.2% −6.88

2021 134 21 15.7% −50.95

2022 57 5 8.8% −25.40

2024 16 0 0% −16.00

2025 182 18 9.9% −72.18

2026 136 16 11.8% −2.56

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,579 171 10.8% −317.78

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 701 86 12.3% −151.97

11-13 runners 684 54 7.9% −215.02

5-7 runners 345 57 16.5% −9.11

14-16 runners 211 8 3.8% −120.50

17+ runners 71 1 1.4% −60.00

2-4 runners 24 5 20.8% −3.56

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Chapter And Verse (IRE)from B W Hills 68 5 23 7 Aug 15

Rock Anthem (IRE)from John Dunlop 63 6 16 31 Oct 13

Benandonner (USA)from Richard Fahey 52 8 23 20 Mar 15

Titan Goddess (GB) 48 7 15 28 Feb 19

Rio Ronaldo (IRE)then Brian Meehan 41 6 11 31 May 19

Young John (IRE)from Richard Fahey · then Shaun Harris 39 5 12 4 Mar 21

Zamperini (IRE)then Gary Moore 37 3 12 17 Oct 18

Garth Rockett (GB)from Brendan Powell 34 6 12 14 Jan 22

Red Somerset (USA)from Ron Hodges 32 7 17 23 Jan 13

Kodiac Express (IRE) 31 4 13 30 Nov 19

Lutine Bell (GB)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt 31 1 11 22 Oct 13

La Fortunata (GB)from J R Jenkins 30 5 14 27 Nov 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 188 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 33 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Andrew Balding (4) and Mike Murphy & Michael Keady (3); 27 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Mike Murphy & Michael Keady (3); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

17221469118109689

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderShane Kelly

13% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 1.33

RiderRWSR£1

Shane Kelly 255 32 12.5% −33.29

Daniel Muscutt 191 33 17.3% +10.02

Rossa Ryan 91 14 15.4% −33.03

Kieran O'Neill 80 7 8.8% −51.06

Andrea Atzeni 67 6 9% −19.50

Rob Hornby 52 7 13.5% +45.75

Tony Culhane 51 7 13.7% +15.45

Pat Dobbs 45 4 8.9% −23.12

Martin Lane 43 5 11.6% +33.53

Martin Dwyer 38 1 2.6% −34.25

Luke Morris 36 2 5.6% −27.00

Nicola Currie 33 5 15.2% −1.62

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

213

Archived wins

£1.60m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 21 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Discussiontofollow (IRE) — Totepool Heritage Handicap Ascot · Jul 2014 · Class 2

£62,250

Chapter And Verse (IRE) — totescoop6 London Mile Handicap (Series Final) Kempton (AW) · Sep 2010 · Class 2

£37,386

Star Chorus (IRE) — SBK: Betting Without The Bull Handicap Southwell (AW) · Feb 2026 · Class 4

£18,319

Notable horses

Benandonner (USA) Titan Goddess (GB) Red Somerset (USA) Mulzim (GB) Rock Anthem (IRE) Rio Ronaldo (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

One Cool Cat (USA) 7.4% · 5–68

Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,592 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.4% from 605.

Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 9% · 6–67

Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,566 runs since 2008 (872 horses).

Equiano (FR) 14.3% · 9–63

Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,540 runs since 2008 (549 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 8.9% · 5–56

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,582 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Giant's Causeway (USA) 15.4% · 8–52

Progeny have won 11.6% of 3,018 runs since 2008 (320 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.1% from 394. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 422.

Lucky Story (USA) 10% · 5–50

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,554 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 351. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.5% from 451.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,075 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,075 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 May 2007 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Desert Charm (GB)J: Hollie Doyle Arc All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 10/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Star Chorus (IRE)J: Rob Hornby Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 10th 20/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Divine Wish (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Disability Inc Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 50/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Further Measure (USA)J: Callum Shepherd Bet @racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 6th 18/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Victorian Rose (FR)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Fireworks Festival Here Saturday 7th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 80/1

23 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) San Juanito (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd January 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 18/1

13 Oct 26 Southwell Dusky Spyglass (GB)J: Luke Scott Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 150/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Hint Of The Jungle (IRE)J: Rob Hornby Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 17/2

12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Desert Charm (GB)J: Paddy Bradley Moulton Racing Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 7/2

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Jesse Luc (GB)J: Luke Morris Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 7/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) San Juanito (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 8th 40/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Divine Wish (GB)J: Rob Hornby Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 28/1

07 Oct 26 Nottingham Nad Alshiba Snow (IRE)J: Ryan Kavanagh Construction Day 14th October Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 25/1

05 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Star Chorus (IRE)J: Pat Dobbs Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 1st 15/8J

05 Oct 26 Pontefract Further Measure (USA)J: Clifford Lee Always Trying Racing Syndicate Handicap StakesClass 5 · 18f · Good · 6 ran 4th 3/1

24 Sep 26 Pontefract Nad Alshiba Snow (IRE)J: Jack Callan ROA Shared Ownership Day Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 25/1

23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) San Juanito (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 8th 14/1

23 Sep 26 Goodwood Star Chorus (IRE)J: Rob Hornby Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 12th 25/1

22 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Further Measure (USA)J: Kieran O'Neill Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 20/1

21 Sep 26 Leicester Aim For The Bull (IRE)J: Alfie Redman Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 7th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 12 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 22 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Mike Murphy's strike rate?: Mike Murphy has won 211 of 2,036 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.4% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mike Murphy do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 27 wins from 168 runners (16.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Mike Murphy?: Shane Kelly, with 255 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 32 (12.5%).
Is Mike Murphy in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mike Murphy's Fair A/E?: 1.08, from 2,024 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.