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Trainer profile

Patrick J McKenna

575 runners in the lifetime window · 38 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 5 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
18–575
Wins / Runs
3.1%
Strike rate
n=575
122 (21%)
Placed
0.51
Fair A/E
n=573 · 0.40 incl. margin
−353.25
£1 level stake
n=575 at SP · −61.4%
£355k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.6%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.51).

Deterministic profile computed from 575 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May Luke McAteer: 5.7% from 53
The read

The record is strongest at Fairyhouse (9.7%, n=31), clear of the yard's 3.1% baseline. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.45 and −204.00 to a £1 stake over 346 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Luke McAteer rides 9% of the entries and edges the yard's average (5.7% vs 3.1%, A/E 0.76). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 0% over 78 runners, 3.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.00 across 57 runners (0% strike, −57.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Cuban Grey (GB) — 5 wins from 36 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%−1.3
n=57 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −45.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
2.8%−0.3
n=36 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −19.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.1
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.1
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
2.5%−0.6
n=40 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −23.00
When favourite
20%
n=15 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −4.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.6%−0.5
n=346 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −204.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Rory Mulligan 9.8% vs 3.1% · n=41
At Fairyhouse 9.7% vs 3.1% · n=31
With Wayne Lordan 8.6% vs 3.1% · n=35
In Hurdle races 0% vs 3.1% · n=78
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 3.1% · n=57
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 3.1% · n=57
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 471 17 3.6% −266.25
Hurdle 78 0 0% −78.00
Chase 16 1 6.3% +1.00
NH Flat 10 0 0% −10.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 262 11 4.2% −96.25
Good 146 5 3.4% −104.50
Soft 90 1 1.1% −84.50
Good to Firm 29 0 0% −29.00
Good to Soft 24 1 4.2% −15.00
Heavy 18 0 0% −18.00
Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 243 11 4.5% −77.25
Down Royal 38 0 0% −38.00
Navan 34 0 0% −34.00
Fairyhouse 31 3 9.7% +2.50
Curragh 29 2 6.9% −15.00
Bellewstown 25 0 0% −25.00
Naas 20 0 0% −20.00
Sligo 18 0 0% −18.00
Leopardstown 18 1 5.6% −15.00
Downpatrick 17 0 0% −17.00
Kilbeggan 9 0 0% −9.00
Gowran Park 9 0 0% −9.00
Galway 9 0 0% −9.00
Newcastle (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00
Roscommon 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 13 0 0% −13.00
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 5 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 22 4 18.2% 0.89 −6.25
2nd–3rd fav 72 6 8.3% 0.63 −27.50
4th–6th fav 133 2 1.5% 0.19 −108.50
7th+ in betting 348 6 1.7% 0.55 −211.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
No Speed Limit (FR)from James McAuley 84 3 23 29 May 25
Guiding Star (GB)from J P Murtagh · then Alistair Whillans 47 1 9 2 Jul 21
Wajaaha (IRE)from C Byrnes 38 0 9 19 Sep 25
King's View (IRE)from Richard Hannon · then Lee Smyth 37 0 10 1 Jul 22
Cuban Grey (GB)from Mike Murphy & Michael Keady 36 5 17 15 Oct 26
Sam Missile (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 29 0 6 5 Jan 22
Ampeson (GB)from P J F Murphy · then Gavin Cromwell 26 3 6 17 Aug 23
Tipper Road (IRE)from Mervyn Torrens 26 0 7 31 Oct 11
Capla Knight (IRE)from Gay Kelleway · then Muredach Kelly 22 1 4 14 Oct 22
The Perch (IRE)from John C McConnell · then R K Watson 21 1 2 26 Mar 21
Battle Borne (IRE)from Gavin Cromwell 16 1 4 30 Oct 26
Hezahunk (IRE)from Adrian McGuinness 16 1 3 30 Jan 26
All 38 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 38 horses listed, 33 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J J Lambe (4) and Adrian McGuinness (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Peter Fahey (2) and R K Watson (2); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
360562500248
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLuke McAteer
9% of all rides
5.7% SR · A/E 0.76
RiderRWSR£1
Luke McAteer 53 3 5.7% −10.00
Killian Leonard 45 0 0% −45.00
Rory Mulligan 41 4 9.8% +2.00
J M Sheridan 36 1 2.8% −30.50
Wayne Lordan 35 3 8.6% −21.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
18
Archived wins
£355k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 5 wins
Cuban Grey (GB) — SIS Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Curragh · Apr 2025
£15,340
Catch The Paddy (IRE) — Dundalk Stadium Gift Vouchers Available Online Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2024
£12,980
Ampeson (GB) — William Hill Pick Your Places Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2022
£12,980
Notable horses
Cuban Grey (GB) No Speed Limit (FR) Ampeson (GB) Guiding Star (GB) Capla Knight (IRE) The Perch (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Elusive City (USA) 3.6% · 3–84
Progeny have won 9.7% of 8,427 runs since 2008 (636 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.4% from 1,123.
Iffraaj (GB) 2.1% · 1–47
Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,985 runs since 2010 (1,092 horses).
New Approach (IRE) 0% · 0–38
Progeny have won 12.6% of 6,792 runs since 2012 (685 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.9% from 101.
Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–37
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,928 runs since 2011 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Havana Grey (GB) 13.9% · 5–36
Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,592 runs since 2022 (419 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.2% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 421.
Smart Strike (CAN) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 12.7% of 1,222 runs since 2008 (139 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 192. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.3% from 150. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 16.3% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.7% from 165.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 575 · newest first

The latest 50 of 575 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 31 August 2009 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Battle Borne (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 14/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Battle Borne (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Halloween Mid-Term Racing Next Week Apprentice Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 28/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Rory Mulligan October Racing With 1xBet.ie Apprentice Handicap5f · Soft · 17 ran 15th 5/1
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Rory Mulligan Naas Farm Machinery Handicap5f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 9/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Battle Borne (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 33/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Rory Mulligan Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap5f · Yielding · 20 ran 8th 25/1
18 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Battle Borne (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 50/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Battle Borne (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Navan Handicap (Div I)8f · Good · 16 ran 15th 40/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Luke McAteer Navan Racecourse Handicap5f · Good · 16 ran 14th 17/2
15 Aug 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Rory Mulligan BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Mourne Handicap6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 16/1
09 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Luke McAteer Sheehy Motors Volkswagen Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 3rd 12/1
28 Jun 26 Curragh Cuban Grey (GB)J: Luke McAteer Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap)5f · Good · 16 ran 4th 33/1
19 Jun 26 Down Royal Rock Etoile (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey Laura Nicholas Memorial Handicap (0-60)7f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 33/1
19 Jun 26 Down Royal Battle Borne (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Proparamedics And Medicall Handicap7f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 14/1
18 Jun 26 Leopardstown Battle Borne (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Bulmers Live Handicap8f · Good · 16 ran 12th 33/1
14 Jun 26 Cork Cuban Grey (GB)J: Rory Mulligan Ryan's Cleaning Handicap5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 13/2
12 Jun 26 Gowran Park Rock Etoile (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60)8f · Yielding · 14 ran 11th 16/1
07 Jun 26 Navan Cuban Grey (GB)J: Luke McAteer Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Handicap5f · Good · 7 ran 7th 11/1
01 Jun 26 Gowran Park Rock Etoile (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey KCLR 96FM Apprentice Handicap (0-60)8f · Yielding · 16 ran 3rd 9/1
26 May 26 Dundalk (AW) Cuban Grey (GB)J: Luke McAteer Put The Fun In Fundraising At Dundalk Handicap5f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 15 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 15 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Patrick J McKenna's strike rate?
Patrick J McKenna has won 18 of 575 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick J McKenna do best at?
Fairyhouse by strike rate: 3 wins from 31 runners (9.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick J McKenna?
Luke McAteer, with 53 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.7%).
Is Patrick J McKenna in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Patrick J McKenna's Fair A/E?
0.51, from 573 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).