Skip to content
Trainer profile

Thomas Dowling

290 runners in the lifetime window · 33 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 6 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–290
Wins / Runs
4.1%
Strike rate
n=290
54 (19%)
Placed
0.74
Fair A/E
n=290 · 0.59 incl. margin
−122.87
£1 level stake
n=290 at SP · −42.4%
£147k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.74).

Deterministic profile computed from 290 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Jack Cleary: 6.1% from 66 Claiming riders: 4.5%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −42.75 to a £1 stake over 178 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jack Cleary rides 23% of the entries and edges the yard's average (6.1% vs 4.1%, A/E 0.95). The yard also reads well on Good going (8%, n=88). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 0% over 53 runners, 4.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Mullacash Buzz (IRE) — 6 wins from 48 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2%−2.1
n=49 · A/E 0.77 · £1 +18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.7%+4.6
n=23 · A/E 3.90 · £1 +70.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.1
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.7%+2.6
n=15 · A/E 3.19 · £1 +11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5%+0.9
n=20 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +47.00
When favourite
15.4%
n=13 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −6.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.5%+0.4
n=178 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −42.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 10% vs 4.1% · n=30
On Good going 8% vs 4.1% · n=88
On Soft going 0% vs 4.1% · n=53
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 4.1% · n=36
Off a 31-60-day break 7% vs 4.1% · n=43
With Jack Cleary 6.1% vs 4.1% · n=66
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 259 12 4.6% −91.87
Hurdle 28 0 0% −28.00
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 111 5 4.5% −17.25
Good 88 7 8% −14.62
Soft 53 0 0% −53.00
Heavy 17 0 0% −17.00
Good to Soft 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 105 4 3.8% −15.00
Fairyhouse 20 1 5% −8.00
Curragh 19 0 0% −19.00
Leopardstown 15 0 0% −15.00
Navan 14 0 0% −14.00
Gowran Park 14 1 7.1% −6.00
Down Royal 13 1 7.7% +13.00
Naas 11 1 9.1% −1.00
Roscommon 10 1 10% −4.50
Bellewstown 10 0 0% −10.00
Punchestown 9 0 0% −9.00
Sligo 6 0 0% −6.00
Limerick 6 0 0% −6.00
Cork 6 0 0% −6.00
Laytown (AW) 5 1 20% −1.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 8 2 25% +3.88
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 14 2 14.3% 0.73 −7.62
2nd–3rd fav 32 2 6.3% 0.46 −22.75
4th–6th fav 58 6 10.3% 1.35 +0.50
7th+ in betting 186 2 1.1% 0.43 −93.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mullacash Buzz (IRE)from W McCreery 48 6 17 14 Aug 26
Spirit Of Eagles (IRE)from M C Grassick · then Ian Patrick Donoghue 33 1 7 7 Aug 26
Man Is King (IRE)from Sean Byrne · then David Flood 29 0 6 23 Jan 26
Hugo's Girl (IRE) 22 1 7 21 Sep 26
Saxon Kingdom (IRE)from P J Rothwell · then James Owen 18 1 5 4 Sep 25
Starlight Rose (IRE)from Peter Lawlor 12 1 1 22 Jun 23
Adare Beauty (IRE)from K J Condon 10 0 1 14 Feb 25
L'immortale (IRE)from M C Grassick · then Jack Jones 9 0 2 7 Feb 25
Emily's Boy (IRE) 8 0 0 28 Oct 26
Music And Song (IRE)then David Flood 8 0 0 20 Jul 26
Jaynemax (IRE) 8 0 2 18 Apr 26
Purring Along (IRE)from Lee Smyth · then Aidan Melia 7 0 1 1 Oct 24
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 33 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John James Feane (2) and Lee Smyth (2); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for David Flood (3) and Aidan Melia (2); 21 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0654744830110
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJack Cleary
23% of all rides
6.1% SR · A/E 0.95
RiderRWSR£1
Jack Cleary 66 4 6.1% −31.50
Wesley Joyce 34 1 2.9% −8.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
12
Archived wins
£147k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 4 wins
Hugo's Girl (IRE) — Pride Of Place Maiden Laytown (IRE) · Sep 2026
£6,601
Mullacash Buzz (IRE) — Naas Welcomes Racing TV Members Handicap (47-65) (Div 1) Naas · Apr 2022
£6,195
Mullacash Buzz (IRE) — Gateway Hotel Dundalk Race & Stay Handicap (47-70) Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2023
£6,195
Notable horses
Mullacash Buzz (IRE) Asgard's Captain (IRE) Spirit Of Eagles (IRE) Hugo's Girl (IRE) Saxon Kingdom (IRE) Starlight Rose (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
War Command (USA) 12.5% · 6–48
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,277 runs since 2018 (200 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 285.
Gleneagles (IRE) 3% · 1–33
Progeny have won 11.4% of 4,566 runs since 2019 (446 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 283.
Coulsty (IRE) 3.3% · 1–30
Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,545 runs since 2020 (167 horses).
Dandy Man (IRE) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,960 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Saxon Warrior (JPN) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 11.5% of 2,927 runs since 2022 (366 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.9% from 948. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 142.
Gregorian (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,946 runs since 2018 (164 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 116.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 290 · newest first

The latest 50 of 290 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 November 2021 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Emily's Boy (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 14/1
21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Emily's Boy (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap6f · Yielding · 21 ran 9th 25/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dubai Opulence (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 3/1
07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Emily's Boy (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Handicap6f · Yielding · 22 ran 9th 80/1
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Dubai Opulence (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 8/1
21 Sep 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Hugo's Girl (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap7f · Good · 12 ran 4th 8/1
10 Sep 26 Laytown (IRE) Hugo's Girl (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Pride Of Place Maiden7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/4
05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Emily's Boy (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div II)10f · Good · 21 ran 21st 33/1
22 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Hugo's Girl (IRE)J: W J Lee Friends Of Moorefield GAA Handicap6f · Good · 27 ran 5th 4/1F
14 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Mullacash Buzz (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Fitzgerald Construction Building 'A' Rated Homes Handicap8f · Good · 17 ran 12th 20/1
09 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Hugo's Girl (IRE)J: Oisin Murphy Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 2nd 9/2
07 Aug 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Spirit Of Eagles (IRE)J: W J Lee 1XBET.IE IRISH RACING PARTNERSHIP Optional Claiming Race7f · Good · 12 ran 8th 14/1
22 Jul 26 Naas (IRE) Mullacash Buzz (IRE)J: Jessica O'Gorman O'Neill & Co. Apprentice Handicap8f · Good · 18 ran 3rd 8/1
20 Jul 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Music And Song (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Download The Tote App Handicap9.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 8th 14/1
17 Jul 26 Down Royal (IRE) Spirit Of Eagles (IRE)J: Sam Coen Ampion Electrical Testing And Solar Experts Handicap5f · Good · 11 ran 6th 11/1
08 Jul 26 Fairyhouse Hugo's Girl (IRE)J: W J Lee Racing Again September 21st Handicap7f · Good · 15 ran 4th 100/30
08 Jul 26 Fairyhouse Music And Song (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Dino Family Day At Fairyhouse Optional Claiming Race10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 80/1
02 Jul 26 Bellewstown Mullacash Buzz (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Ploughman Bar And Grill Handicap (0-60)8f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 18/1
01 Jul 26 Fairyhouse Spirit Of Eagles (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap6f · Good · 11 ran 8th 16/1
01 Jul 26 Fairyhouse Hugo's Girl (IRE)J: Jack Cleary Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap6f · Good · 11 ran 4th 5/1C

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Thomas Dowling's strike rate?
Thomas Dowling has won 12 of 290 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Thomas Dowling do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 105 runners (3.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Thomas Dowling?
Jack Cleary, with 66 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (6.1%).
Is Thomas Dowling in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Thomas Dowling's Fair A/E?
0.74, from 290 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).