Tom Clover
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 100 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 14% off breaks of two months or more (344 runs).
The record is strongest at Doncaster (22.2%, n=54), clear of the yard's 12.4% baseline. It is weakest at Sandown (2.8% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.4% (n=109, Fair A/E 0.67). A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 12.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +44.85 to a £1 stake over 126 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Jack Mitchell rides 25% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (14.2%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (19.1%, n=230). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes at York (Aug 2026, £141,775). The stable star of the record: Jungle Run (IRE) — 7 wins from 34 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2016→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,907 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,907 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 December 2016 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Tom Clover's strike rate?
- Tom Clover has won 236 of 1,907 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.4% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Tom Clover do best at?
- Doncaster by strike rate: 12 wins from 54 runners (22.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Tom Clover?
- Jack Mitchell, with 479 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 68 (14.2%).
- Is Tom Clover in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Tom Clover's Fair A/E?
- 0.96, from 1,901 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.