What is Brendan Powell's strike rate?

Brendan Powell has won 347 of 4,157 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Brendan Powell do best at?

Towcester by strike rate: 14 wins from 114 runners (12.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Brendan Powell?

Brendan Powell, with 583 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 44 (7.5%).

What is Brendan Powell's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 4,145 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Brendan Powell

4,157 runners in the lifetime window · 452 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jan 2019

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

347–4,157

Wins / Runs

8.3%

Strike rate

n=4,157

994 (24%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=4,145 · 0.83 incl. margin

−867.26

£1 level stake

n=4,157 at SP · −20.9%

£2.15m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

14.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 350 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 12% (202 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,157 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 28.9% when favourite Brendan Powell: 7.5% from 583 Headgear returns: 11.9% Sent off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (23.7%, n=59), clear of the yard's 8.3% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 11.9% (n=202, Fair A/E 1.23), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2% (n=51, Fair A/E 0.47). Debutants are the standout value angle: 7.3% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.36 and +72.75 to a £1 stake over 192 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet a horse in first-time headgear: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.65 and −50.50 to a £1 stake over 141 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Brendan Powell rode 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.5%, A/E 0.79). The record read poorly in Class 1 — 1.3% over 76 runners, 7pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 32Red Floodlit Stakes at Kempton (AW) (Nov 2018, £28,355). The stable star of the record was Award Winner (GB) — 10 wins from 59 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.6%−0.7

n=631 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −46.22

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.9%−2.4

n=185 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −28.05

Debutants · first career start

7.3%−1.0

n=192 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +72.75

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.3%−4.0

n=141 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −50.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

11.9%+3.6

n=202 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +9.68

When favourite

28.9%

n=228 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −39.68

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.6%−0.7

n=1,046 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −264.93

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2%−6.3

n=51 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −34.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With A P McCoy 22.3% vs 8.3% · n=166

At Southwell (AW) 23.7% vs 8.3% · n=59

With Noel Fehily 23.5% vs 8.3% · n=34

With Kieren Fallon 18.8% vs 8.3% · n=64

In Class 1 1.3% vs 8.3% · n=76

With Liam Keniry 16.3% vs 8.3% · n=43

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,892 164 8.7% −201.87

Hurdle 1,335 88 6.6% −597.08

Chase 692 72 10.4% −124.06

NH Flat 238 23 9.7% +55.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,196 95 7.9% −269.90

Standard (AW) 809 78 9.6% −4.02

Good to Soft 659 43 6.5% −203.32

Good to Firm 645 56 8.7% −184.36

Soft 587 53 9% −136.09

Heavy 198 18 9.1% −84.30

Firm 63 4 6.3% +14.73

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fontwell 336 25 7.4% −112.98

Kempton 300 20 6.7% −52.50

Lingfield (AW) 258 27 10.5% +15.30

Newbury 213 9 4.2% −121.50

Huntingdon 140 13 9.3% −24.67

Worcester 136 16 11.8% +26.60

Windsor 135 8 5.9% −42.12

Wolverhampton (AW) 128 12 9.4% −21.62

Chepstow 121 11 9.1% +31.38

Towcester 114 14 12.3% −13.38

Bath 111 10 9% +11.00

Wincanton 97 9 9.3% +10.08

Plumpton 94 9 9.6% −30.35

Leicester 91 10 11% +27.65

Exeter 87 7 8% −39.77

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,439 107 7.4% −705.46

Class 5 1,200 101 8.4% −123.79

Class 6 812 89 11% +149.12

Class 3 490 41 8.4% −61.25

Class 2 114 4 3.5% −69.17

Class 1 76 1 1.3% −59.00

Class 7 17 4 23.5% +11.29

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 285 74 26% 0.91 −68.18

2nd–3rd fav 738 110 14.9% 0.96 −131.58

4th–6th fav 1,392 104 7.5% 0.98 −214.50

7th+ in betting 1,742 59 3.4% 1.06 −453.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Morestead (IRE) 111 8 29 12 May 16

Uncle Dermot (IRE) 73 8 26 17 Nov 16

Gannicus (GB) 58 5 14 26 Jan 19

Award Winner (GB) 58 9 12 1 Apr 14

Princess Flame (GER)from Tony Newcombe 47 6 14 19 Oct 10

Dark Amber (GB)then Damian Joseph English 42 3 7 31 Jan 17

Peopleton Brook (GB)from Milton Bradley 40 3 11 16 Jul 10

Dark Emerald (IRE) 38 6 17 2 Jul 17

Edgeworth (IRE)then David Bridgwater 38 8 14 2 May 11

Dark And Dangerous (IRE)from Peter Winkworth · then Simon Waugh 37 4 8 11 Feb 15

Fongoli (GB) 36 2 11 23 Oct 11

Who's Winning (IRE) 36 3 10 29 Apr 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 452 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 17 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Brian Meehan (2); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

19 have since run for another yard; 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

88888861197109

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBrendan Powell

14% of all rides
7.5% SR · A/E 0.79

RiderRWSR£1

Brendan Powell 583 44 7.5% −148.37

Wilson Renwick 188 14 7.4% −66.13

A P McCoy 166 37 22.3% −0.47

Jimmy McCarthy 143 5 3.5% −98.38

Fergus Sweeney 131 15 11.5% +20.13

Sam Jones 120 8 6.7% −52.17

Jenny Powell 105 9 8.6% −43.37

James Davies 93 6 6.5% −41.92

Leighton Aspell 91 7 7.7% −20.00

Martin Dwyer 89 7 7.9% −15.00

Seb Sanders 88 8 9.1% −9.50

Stevie Donohoe 79 6 7.6% −9.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

519

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.37m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 65 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Kasperenko (GB) — 32Red Floodlit Stakes (Listed) Kempton (AW) · Nov 2018 · Listed

£28,355

Kasperenko (GB) — Bet Totetrifecta At Totesport.com Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Aug 2018 · Class 3

£22,642

Dark Emerald (IRE) — Ebf Stallions Conditions Stakes Hamilton · Sep 2015 · Class 2

£15,563

Notable horses

Award Winner (GB) Morestead (IRE) Uncle Dermot (IRE) Edgeworth (IRE) Who's Winning (IRE) Tora Bora (GER)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Phoenix Reach (IRE) 9.7% · 20–207

Progeny have won 7.9% of 1,949 runs since 2010 (140 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 178. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.1% from 257.

Traditionally (USA) 7.2% · 8–111

Progeny have won 8.1% of 1,178 runs since 2008 (93 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.4% from 114. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 196. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 12% from 175. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.3% from 184.

Sakhee (USA) 11.5% · 9–78

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,981 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 611. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.2% from 139.

Arakan (USA) 11% · 8–73

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,467 runs since 2009 (266 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.5% from 134.

Alflora (IRE) 19.1% · 13–68

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Indian Haven (GB) 17.9% · 10–56

Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,800 runs since 2008 (153 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.1% from 157.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,037 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,037 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 26 January 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Jan 19 Chelmsford City (AW) Gannicus (GB)J: Shane Kelly Black Notley HandicapClass 7 · 10f · Standard · 16 ran 15th 12/1

26 Jan 19 Chelmsford City (AW) Garth Rockett (GB)J: Shane Kelly Totepool Cashback Club At Totesport.com HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 4/1

23 Jan 19 Lingfield (AW) Mr Andros (GB)J: Shane Kelly Like Sun Racing On Facebook HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 10/1

16 Jan 19 Kempton (AW) Poet Pete (IRE)J: Fergus Sweeney 32red On The App Store Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 14th 100/1

16 Jan 19 Newbury Oldtown Polly (IRE)J: Brendan Powell British Ebf Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 100/1

16 Jan 19 Newbury Big 'n Better (GB)J: Brendan Powell Watch Racing Tv With Free Trial Now Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 16 ran 11th 40/1

15 Jan 19 Kempton (AW) Choral Clan (IRE)J: Robert Havlin 32red Casino HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 7 ran 4th 14/1

14 Jan 19 Fontwell My Destiny (IRE)J: Brendan Powell 'Goodwin Racing Call 08000 421 321' Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 66/1

07 Jan 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Mr Andros (GB)J: Scott McCullagh Like Sun Racing On Facebook Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 10/1

06 Jan 19 Plumpton Gannicus (GB)J: Brendan Powell Watch Today's Race Replays On Attheraces.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 16/1

06 Jan 19 Plumpton Mere Ironmonger (GB)J: Brendan Powell Visit attheraces.com EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 3 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 33/1

04 Jan 19 Wolverhampton (AW) Freedom And Wheat (IRE)J: Fergus Sweeney Ladbrokes, Home Of The Odds Boost HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 5th 11/8F

04 Jan 19 Lingfield Oldtown Polly (IRE)J: Brendan Powell Starsports.bet Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 23f · Soft · 15 ran PU 66/1

04 Jan 19 Lingfield (AW) Thomas Cromwell (GB)J: Brendan Powell starsports.bet Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 11th 33/1

28 Dec 18 Lingfield (AW) Poet Pete (IRE)J: Fergus Sweeney Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost EBF Novice StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 50/1

28 Dec 18 Lingfield (AW) Freedom And Wheat (IRE)J: Fergus Sweeney Ladbrokes NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 5/1

27 Dec 18 Chepstow De Bruyne Horse (GB)J: Brendan Powell Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)Class 1 · 16f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 66/1

26 Dec 18 Fontwell Mere Ironmonger (GB)J: Brendan Powell David Hazelden 70th Birthday Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 17.5f · Soft · 13 ran 7th 11/1

22 Dec 18 Lingfield (AW) Zarrar (IRE)J: Fergus Sweeney Betway Casino HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 3/1F

20 Dec 18 Chelmsford City (AW) Mr Andros (GB)J: Kai Lenihan Bet Toteplacepot At Totesport.com Amateur Riders' HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 15 ran 7th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Brendan Powell's strike rate?: Brendan Powell has won 347 of 4,157 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brendan Powell do best at?: Towcester by strike rate: 14 wins from 114 runners (12.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Brendan Powell?: Brendan Powell, with 583 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 44 (7.5%).
What is Brendan Powell's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 4,145 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.