What is David Elsworth's strike rate?

David Elsworth has won 324 of 2,681 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Elsworth do best at?

Haydock by strike rate: 11 wins from 56 runners (19.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David Elsworth?

Dane O'Neill, with 233 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (10.7%).

What is David Elsworth's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 2,663 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Elsworth

2,681 runners in the lifetime window · 308 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Nov 2021 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

324–2,681

Wins / Runs

12.1%

Strike rate

n=2,681

831 (31%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=2,663 · 0.92 incl. margin

−321.50

£1 level stake

n=2,681 at SP · −12.0%

£6.57m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). New recruits from other yards win at 21% first time out (33 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,681 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Nov–Feb 32.3% when favourite Dane O'Neill: 10.7% from 233 New recruits: 21.2% Claiming riders: 12.4% Sent off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

It is weakest at Newmarket (6.1% over 245 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 21.2% (n=33, Fair A/E 2.19), but debutants struggle at 6.2% (n=241, Fair A/E 0.92). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 12.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.30 and +9.74 to a £1 stake over 331 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Dane O'Neill rode 9% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.7%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. 51 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Juddmonte International Stakes at York (Aug 2015, £518,542). The stable star of the record was Sir Dancealot (IRE) — 10 wins from 37 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.8%−1.3

n=370 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +54.98

New recruits · first run for the yard

21.2%+9.1

n=33 · A/E 2.19 · £1 +74.25

Debutants · first career start

6.2%−5.9

n=241 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −107.45

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.4%−2.7

n=96 · A/E 0.92 · £1 +28.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.3%−3.8

n=24 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −14.50

When favourite

32.3%

n=285 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −24.23

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.4%+0.3

n=331 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +9.74

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.9%−2.2

n=353 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −68.72

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Ryan Moore 21.6% vs 12.1% · n=97

With Hollie Doyle 22.2% vs 12.1% · n=36

At Newmarket 6.1% vs 12.1% · n=245

With Robert Havlin 3.8% vs 12.1% · n=52

With Alan Munro 2.9% vs 12.1% · n=35

With debutants 6.2% vs 12.1% · n=241

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,641 319 12.1% −300.88

NH Flat 27 5 18.5% −7.62

Hurdle 12 0 0% −12.00

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 863 114 13.2% −67.88

Good to Firm 643 72 11.2% −149.45

Good 540 62 11.5% −72.56

Good to Soft 317 36 11.4% −29.07

Soft 269 34 12.6% +7.46

Heavy 33 5 15.2% −2.00

Firm 16 1 6.3% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 433 57 13.2% +33.68

Lingfield (AW) 316 43 13.6% −71.74

Newmarket 283 32 11.3% −26.46

Newmarket 245 15 6.1% −141.64

Ascot 138 8 5.8% −70.25

Windsor 126 17 13.5% −26.65

Salisbury 109 15 13.8% −25.13

Newbury 108 13 12% −18.99

York 90 6 6.7% +7.67

Doncaster 83 11 13.3% +4.04

Sandown 81 7 8.6% −43.50

Nottingham 78 15 19.2% +113.63

Yarmouth 73 9 12.3% +7.08

Chelmsford (AW) 57 9 15.8% −10.32

Haydock 56 11 19.6% +26.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 872 116 13.3% −90.35

Class 4 561 68 12.1% −66.56

Class 1 353 35 9.9% −68.72

Class 2 349 36 10.3% −26.17

Class 6 292 33 11.3% −108.78

Class 3 250 36 14.4% +43.08

Class 7 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 354 105 29.7% 1.04 −38.73

2nd–3rd fav 654 113 17.3% 1.07 −25.97

4th–6th fav 860 75 8.7% 1.07 −69.50

7th+ in betting 813 31 3.8% 1.10 −187.30

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Master The World (IRE)from Gerard Butler 61 6 19 7 Jun 20

Burning Thread (IRE)from Tim Etherington 39 3 9 25 Jul 17

Sir Dancealot (IRE)then John Butler 37 10 14 28 Jul 20

Classic Punch (IRE)then Tim Etherington 35 3 8 14 Sep 12

Lady Dancealot (IRE) 32 5 14 15 Feb 20

Highland Castle (GB)then Lucinda Egerton 32 5 11 14 Oct 16

Viva Vettori (GB)then Brian Forsey 32 2 11 29 Oct 11

Ripp Orf (IRE) 31 4 17 1 Oct 21

Justice Day (IRE) 31 6 14 4 Oct 15

Sleepy Sioux (GB) 30 5 9 14 Oct 15

Upavon (GB)then Stuart Williams 26 6 8 28 Oct 15

Elusive Flame (GB) 26 4 10 11 Oct 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 308 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gerard Butler (2); 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard; 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

18131210149121111101520

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDane O'Neill

9% of all rides
10.7% SR · A/E 1.01

RiderRWSR£1

Dane O'Neill 233 25 10.7% −32.94

Liam Keniry 227 33 14.5% +36.86

Silvestre De Sousa 138 25 18.1% +37.30

Hayley Turner 109 12 11% −21.45

T Quinn 102 7 6.9% −41.00

Ryan Moore 97 21 21.6% −1.81

Marc Halford 95 9 9.5% +20.25

Gerald Mosse 84 12 14.3% −14.42

Jamie Spencer 82 15 18.3% −9.27

David Probert 72 6 8.3% −43.62

Shane Kelly 67 9 13.4% −15.62

Nicky Mackay 65 10 15.4% +41.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

447

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£8.74m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 51 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Arabian Queen (IRE) — Juddmonte International Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) York · Aug 2015 · Group 1

£518,542

Sir Dancealot (IRE) — Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2019 · Group 2

£176,935

Sir Dancealot (IRE) — Qatar Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2018 · Group 2

£176,935

Notable horses

Sir Dancealot (IRE) Barshiba (IRE) Master The World (IRE) Classic Punch (IRE) Justice Day (IRE) Upavon (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Halling (USA) 7.8% · 10–129

Progeny have won 11% of 6,095 runs since 2008 (409 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 187.

Acclamation (GB) 14.3% · 17–119

Progeny have won 10% of 19,711 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Norse Dancer (IRE) 6.9% · 5–72

Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,800 runs since 2010 (157 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.7% from 278. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 207.

Sir Prancealot (IRE) 21.7% · 15–69

Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,688 runs since 2016 (216 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.6% from 627. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 171.

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 9% · 6–67

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,637 runs since 2013 (842 horses).

Dream Ahead (USA) 22.7% · 10–44

Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,708 runs since 2015 (529 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,709 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,709 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 24 November 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

24 Nov 21 Kempton (AW) Tropical Talent (GB)J: Sean Levey Try Our New Super Boosts At Unibet NurseryClass 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 4th 3/1F

06 Nov 21 Doncaster Something Enticing (IRE)J: Jim Crowley British EBF Gillies Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed)Class 1 · 10f · Soft · 18 ran 2nd 18/1

03 Nov 21 Kempton (AW) Tropical Talent (GB)J: Sean Levey Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 3rd 5/1

03 Nov 21 Kempton (AW) Camrie Loch (GB)J: Nicola Currie Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 12th 250/1

29 Oct 21 Kempton (AW) Rockade (GB)J: David Probert Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 1) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 6th 50/1

20 Oct 21 Kempton (AW) Cold Henry (GB)J: David Probert Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 14th 150/1

20 Oct 21 Kempton (AW) Camrie Loch (GB)J: David Probert Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 12th 18/1

20 Oct 21 Newmarket Devaste (GB)J: Hayley Turner Jean Bucknell A Lifetime In Racing NurseryClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 16 ran 4th 7/1C

18 Oct 21 Bath Glencora (IRE)J: J F Egan Read Hollie Doyle's Column On attheraces.com HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 5th 8/1

09 Oct 21 York Something Enticing (IRE)J: Hollie Doyle Coral Proud Sponsors Of British Racing Finale HandicapClass 3 · 10.5f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 1st 9/1

06 Oct 21 Kempton (AW) Pirouette Queen (GB)J: David Probert Unibet New Instant Roulette Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 8th 18/1

05 Oct 21 Kempton (AW) Tropical Talent (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Unibet Casino Deposit 10 Get 40 Bonus Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 8th 150/1

02 Oct 21 Newmarket Devaste (GB)J: Shane Foley 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 6f · Good · 28 ran 8th 100/1

01 Oct 21 Ascot Starshiba (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Berkshire Search & Rescue Dogs (BSARD) HandicapClass 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 12th 10/1

01 Oct 21 Ascot Ripp Orf (IRE)J: Hayley Turner Berkshire Search & Rescue Dogs (BSARD) HandicapClass 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 10th 40/1

26 Sep 21 Epsom Downs Pirouette Queen (GB)J: Hayley Turner Headley Novice StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 11/2

22 Sep 21 Kempton (AW) Devaste (GB)J: Ray Dawson MansionBet's Beaten By A Head Restricted Novice Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 8th 8/1

18 Sep 21 Newbury Tropical Talent (GB)J: David Probert Sir David Sieff EBF Novice Stakes (Div 1) (GBB Race) (Str)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 11th 40/1

17 Sep 21 Newbury End Result (GB)J: David Probert Crossland Employment Solicitors HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 7/1

16 Sep 21 Yarmouth Glencora (IRE)J: Silvestre De Sousa British Ebf Premier Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 11.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Elsworth's strike rate?: David Elsworth has won 324 of 2,681 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Elsworth do best at?: Haydock by strike rate: 11 wins from 56 runners (19.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Elsworth?: Dane O'Neill, with 233 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 25 (10.7%).
What is David Elsworth's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 2,663 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.